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Every Rally is going to be sold until the Yen Carry Trade is unwound.

Posted on 8/7/24 at 7:27 pm
Posted by No Mercy For You
Member since Aug 2024
4 posts
Posted on 8/7/24 at 7:27 pm
The Rally this morning was due to Japanese Central Bank releasing a statement overnight that they would be conscious of the impact to Global Markets before raising rates further.
I don't know why the market got excited about that.
I mean they didn't drop rates & there are still plenty of people that need to unwind their trade.
And the lower stocks drop, the more Fund Managers that utilize the Yen Carry Trade will become offsides & need to sell.
The reason that the high flying momentum stocks reached the levels that they did is in large part to fund managers utilizing the Yen Carry Trade to leverage up and play the momentum game in these high flyers,
There is no telling how low these stocks can go until the Yen Carry Trade is unwound.

Short Term people are underestimating just how risky this unwind is to the markets.
Long Term the "Free Money" Yen Carry Trade just became more expensive, less attractive , and riskier for Fund Managers to utilize.
This means that going forward there will be less Free Yen Funny Money for Fund Managers to leverage up and pour into stocks
This post was edited on 8/7/24 at 7:29 pm
Posted by TigerDeBaiter
Member since Dec 2010
10485 posts
Posted on 8/7/24 at 7:46 pm to
K. I’ll keep buying. Thx
Posted by No Mercy For You
Member since Aug 2024
4 posts
Posted on 8/7/24 at 8:02 pm to
quote:

K. I’ll keep buying. Thx


Tell me that the OP was over your head without telling me that it was over your head.

If only you understood this last week you would have sold and wouldn't have spent the last week getting your arse handed to you.
Posted by UltimaParadox
North Carolina
Member since Nov 2008
47360 posts
Posted on 8/7/24 at 8:17 pm to
quote:

No Mercy For You


How many alters do you have
Posted by No Mercy For You
Member since Aug 2024
4 posts
Posted on 8/7/24 at 8:30 pm to
quote:

How many alters do you have


what is an alter?
Posted by AllDayEveryDay
Nawf Tejas
Member since Jun 2015
8499 posts
Posted on 8/7/24 at 9:05 pm to
Exactly what an alter would say!
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
89931 posts
Posted on 8/7/24 at 9:11 pm to
Another money talk alter/bot. wtf is happening around here?
Posted by JohnnyKilroy
Cajun Navy Vice Admiral
Member since Oct 2012
38701 posts
Posted on 8/8/24 at 9:08 am to
quote:

If only you understood this last week you would have sold



And created a gigantic taxable event? No thanks.


I laugh at the people who (now that the market has taken a sizeable dip) declared that they sold everything a month or so ago and moved into treasuries.


Now obviously we don't know these posters' portfolio size or when they bought, but assuming they are normal people who have been investing relatively consistently for a decent chunk of their adult lives, selling everything is likely to result in thousands or tens of thousands in taxes due.


Then again, I guess most people don't have a penny invested outside of IRA/401k so I guess those people could sell "everything" without fricking their shite up next april.
This post was edited on 8/8/24 at 9:13 am
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
131292 posts
Posted on 8/8/24 at 12:46 pm to
quote:

Every Rally is going to be sold until the Yen Carry Trade is unwound.
The Rally this morning was due to Japanese Central Bank releasing a statement overnight that they would be conscious of the impact to Global Markets before raising rates further.
I don't know why the market got excited about that.

As I post this the Dow Jones is up 655 points (+1.7%), the S&P500 Index is up 116 points (+2.24%) and the NASDAQ is up 461 points (+2.86%) .

Should I sell?
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