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Message

Every Rally is going to be sold until the Yen Carry Trade is unwound.
Posted on 8/7/24 at 7:27 pm
Posted on 8/7/24 at 7:27 pm
The Rally this morning was due to Japanese Central Bank releasing a statement overnight that they would be conscious of the impact to Global Markets before raising rates further.
I don't know why the market got excited about that.
I mean they didn't drop rates & there are still plenty of people that need to unwind their trade.
And the lower stocks drop, the more Fund Managers that utilize the Yen Carry Trade will become offsides & need to sell.
The reason that the high flying momentum stocks reached the levels that they did is in large part to fund managers utilizing the Yen Carry Trade to leverage up and play the momentum game in these high flyers,
There is no telling how low these stocks can go until the Yen Carry Trade is unwound.
Short Term people are underestimating just how risky this unwind is to the markets.
Long Term the "Free Money" Yen Carry Trade just became more expensive, less attractive , and riskier for Fund Managers to utilize.
This means that going forward there will be less Free Yen Funny Money for Fund Managers to leverage up and pour into stocks
I don't know why the market got excited about that.
I mean they didn't drop rates & there are still plenty of people that need to unwind their trade.
And the lower stocks drop, the more Fund Managers that utilize the Yen Carry Trade will become offsides & need to sell.
The reason that the high flying momentum stocks reached the levels that they did is in large part to fund managers utilizing the Yen Carry Trade to leverage up and play the momentum game in these high flyers,
There is no telling how low these stocks can go until the Yen Carry Trade is unwound.
Short Term people are underestimating just how risky this unwind is to the markets.
Long Term the "Free Money" Yen Carry Trade just became more expensive, less attractive , and riskier for Fund Managers to utilize.
This means that going forward there will be less Free Yen Funny Money for Fund Managers to leverage up and pour into stocks
This post was edited on 8/7/24 at 7:29 pm
Posted on 8/7/24 at 7:46 pm to No Mercy For You
K. I’ll keep buying. Thx
Posted on 8/7/24 at 8:02 pm to TigerDeBaiter
quote:
K. I’ll keep buying. Thx
Tell me that the OP was over your head without telling me that it was over your head.

If only you understood this last week you would have sold and wouldn't have spent the last week getting your arse handed to you.
Posted on 8/7/24 at 8:17 pm to No Mercy For You
quote:
No Mercy For You
How many alters do you have
Posted on 8/7/24 at 8:30 pm to UltimaParadox
quote:
How many alters do you have
what is an alter?
Posted on 8/7/24 at 9:05 pm to No Mercy For You
Exactly what an alter would say!
Posted on 8/7/24 at 9:11 pm to No Mercy For You
Another money talk alter/bot. wtf is happening around here?
Posted on 8/8/24 at 9:08 am to No Mercy For You
quote:
If only you understood this last week you would have sold
And created a gigantic taxable event? No thanks.
I laugh at the people who (now that the market has taken a sizeable dip) declared that they sold everything a month or so ago and moved into treasuries.
Now obviously we don't know these posters' portfolio size or when they bought, but assuming they are normal people who have been investing relatively consistently for a decent chunk of their adult lives, selling everything is likely to result in thousands or tens of thousands in taxes due.
Then again, I guess most people don't have a penny invested outside of IRA/401k so I guess those people could sell "everything" without fricking their shite up next april.
This post was edited on 8/8/24 at 9:13 am
Posted on 8/8/24 at 12:46 pm to No Mercy For You
quote:
Every Rally is going to be sold until the Yen Carry Trade is unwound.
The Rally this morning was due to Japanese Central Bank releasing a statement overnight that they would be conscious of the impact to Global Markets before raising rates further.
I don't know why the market got excited about that.
As I post this the Dow Jones is up 655 points (+1.7%), the S&P500 Index is up 116 points (+2.24%) and the NASDAQ is up 461 points (+2.86%)


Should I sell?

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