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re: Expiration of “Trump” tax cuts

Posted on 5/3/24 at 7:05 pm to
Posted by TorchtheFlyingTiger
1st coast
Member since Jan 2008
2178 posts
Posted on 5/3/24 at 7:05 pm to
Example: married filing joint, $150k taxable income now, $150k annual retirement. Assumptions: no other retirement income, using 2024 brackets without inflation adjustment for simplicity sake (fair because not adjusting withdrawal amount for inflation either).

Tax bracket today: 22% thus each extra dollar you choose to pay tax on and contribute to Roth is taxed at 22% (thus only contributing .78¢) or you defer tax of 22% and contribute that full dollar to traditional.

At retirement the Roth balance will be 22% smaller than equivalent traditional contribution (unless you max annual contributions in which case to compare apples/apples you would invest the excess traditional tax savings either in a Roth IRA, taxable brokerage, etc)

Retirement Withdrawals from traditional are taxed at a lower EFFECTIVE RATE. First, $29k is tax free due to standard deduction. Next $23k taxed at 10% then additional up to $94k taxed at 12%. At that point you have ~$122k of withdrawals that have been taxed at rates from 0-12% (instead of 22% when you earned them) Only at that point does the last $18k get taxed in the 22% bracket.
Even if brackets are raised it isnt likely your bottom brackets will exceed the top rate you pay today (unles low income in which case Roth is easy choice.)
The math can still work in favor of traditional if you have other income in retirement but its a little more nuanced. You can have quite a bit of income before withdrawals are fully taxed in same bracket or higher than during contribution years. Of course there are other considerations such as triggering tax on SS benefits, ACA subsidy income limits, IRMAA, RMDs on traditional but not Roth etc. Thus, it is a good idea to have $ in multiple tax buckets so you can optimize where you pull from in retirement year to year based on needs and situation.
This post was edited on 5/3/24 at 7:08 pm
Posted by SquatchDawg
Cohutta Wilderness
Member since Sep 2012
14339 posts
Posted on 5/3/24 at 7:21 pm to
That’s definitely something to ponder.

Most material I’ve seen pushes 100% Roth due to the assumption that taxes will be much higher in the future. Especially in 10 years (my window) when SS and Medicare will be at th breaking point. Even though the plan is to have everything paid off so I expect expenses to be much lower at retirement.

That said, the majority of my retirement savings is still in traditional from my younger years when a Roth wasn’t an option but if these rates change I may consider switching over to get out of the higher bracket for that full contribution amount.

Thanks!

ETA..also, we’ve had a pretty low effective tax rate for years with two kids and a rental. But the rental is almost fully depreciated and with these changes if they happen that could make sense.
This post was edited on 5/3/24 at 7:25 pm
Posted by lynxcat
Member since Jan 2008
24254 posts
Posted on 5/4/24 at 7:28 am to
quote:

TorchtheFlyingTiger


Multiple bucket strategy provides a great hedge on the unknown. Definitely preferred approach.
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