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First Round NFL Draft: 8 OTs (record), 6 QBs (ties record) and 7 WRs (ties record)
Posted on 4/25/24 at 10:53 pm
Posted on 4/25/24 at 10:53 pm
21 of the 32 picks from those three positions.
This post was edited on 4/25/24 at 10:56 pm
Posted on 4/25/24 at 10:56 pm to Porkchop Express
One takeaway is that the NFL rules are over-indexed to the offensive side of the ball. Defense is becoming an afterthought.
Posted on 4/25/24 at 11:00 pm to Porkchop Express
Cowherd has been screaming for years that teams need to start doing this. Took them a few to realize it but here we are.
Posted on 4/25/24 at 11:02 pm to ReauxlTide222
In fairness Cowherd should be ignored.
Posted on 4/25/24 at 11:54 pm to RolltidePA
I remember Colin couldn't stop raving about Darnold and Rosen before the 18 draft.
He wasn't a fan of Allen or Lamar though, hated Baker.
He wasn't a fan of Allen or Lamar though, hated Baker.
Posted on 4/26/24 at 7:28 am to Peter167
quote:it’s like part of his schtick to act like California is the Mecca of existence and everyone from their is the best at everything.
I remember Colin couldn't stop raving about Darnold and Rosen before the 18 draft.
Posted on 4/26/24 at 9:03 am to RolltidePA
quote:
One takeaway is that the NFL rules are over-indexed to the offensive side of the ball.
It's a takeaway, but a bad one
Defense adjusts to the offense and had a pretty good advantage last year, IIRC
This just wasn't a draft with elite D talent. No elite edges, no 2-way DIs, 2 good CBs who had some issues. No great coverage safeties.
Posted on 4/26/24 at 9:08 am to SlowFlowPro
The rules angle is a bit correlation and not cause
If the rules were so advantageous to the offense, it would arguably increase the value of the top end defensive talent
Speaks more to how poorly the QB and tackle play has been in the league the last few years and the explosion of the WR position and having a deep class at all three of those premium positions for possibly the first time ever
Now I think the rule changes have had a lot more of long term effect on this, in that athletes are pushed more towards these positions instead of defense and the development is structured around making a system around their strengths vs trying to fit them into a rigid coaching system, which is a relatively new trend to the league and other levels of football
If the rules were so advantageous to the offense, it would arguably increase the value of the top end defensive talent
Speaks more to how poorly the QB and tackle play has been in the league the last few years and the explosion of the WR position and having a deep class at all three of those premium positions for possibly the first time ever
Now I think the rule changes have had a lot more of long term effect on this, in that athletes are pushed more towards these positions instead of defense and the development is structured around making a system around their strengths vs trying to fit them into a rigid coaching system, which is a relatively new trend to the league and other levels of football
Posted on 4/26/24 at 9:10 am to wildtigercat93
quote:
If the rules were so advantageous to the offense, it would arguably increase the value of the top end defensive talent
This is exactly why CB became so valuable, as I argued at the time.
quote:
Speaks more to how poorly the QB and tackle play has been in the league the last few years and the explosion of the WR position and having a deep class at all three of those premium positions for possibly the first time ever
Correct.
Deep drafts at QB, WR, and OL and a defensive draft without elite talent.
Teams are also just getting smarter. Even 5 years ago, you'd have multiple teams reaching for defensive players b/c they rated them within the draft, and not historically. They just don't make that mistake as much anymore.
quote:
nd the development is structured around making a system around their strengths vs trying to fit them into a rigid coaching system,
This can't be over-stated.
You still see a lot of dinosaurs online talking about players fitting systems and it's been shown you should do the opposite.
Posted on 4/26/24 at 9:17 am to SlowFlowPro
Think a lot of that becomes pretty apparent and interesting to compare new guard vs old guard in BBs and Sabans commentary on the QBs and some of the WRs (areas BB struggled in recent years to draft)
You can tell his mind set it just 20 years out of date for developing those positions. More about how they will fit into a scheme and looking for the least flawed prospect, when the only way to develop a QB in todays game is to either stack the roster deck to insane levels or to build a team built specifically around those flaws and strengths.
Now he may be totally right on all those QBs, because it’s still a total crapshoot when you draft a QB. But the odds become much higher when you’re trying to fit them into your box instead of building something to fit them
You can tell his mind set it just 20 years out of date for developing those positions. More about how they will fit into a scheme and looking for the least flawed prospect, when the only way to develop a QB in todays game is to either stack the roster deck to insane levels or to build a team built specifically around those flaws and strengths.
Now he may be totally right on all those QBs, because it’s still a total crapshoot when you draft a QB. But the odds become much higher when you’re trying to fit them into your box instead of building something to fit them
Posted on 4/26/24 at 9:20 am to Porkchop Express
I think it has more to do with rookie contracts being such a bargain for those positions compared to other ones. A QB on a rookie deal is such an advantage when journeyman back ups command 15-20 million a year if they are stop-gap starters
Posted on 4/26/24 at 9:25 am to Gountiss
quote:
I think it has more to do with rookie contracts being such a bargain for those positions compared to other ones. A QB on a rookie deal is such an advantage when journeyman back ups command 15-20 million a year if they are stop-gap starters
This is a good point as well.
Also is funny how despite this there has been often 1-2 teams that decide to burn this value in the trash by drafting a guy that takes 3 years to see the field (ie Pennix)
That’s why the “Green Bay model” - despite anecdotal success, is honestly terrible resource management
Posted on 4/26/24 at 9:26 am to wildtigercat93
quote:
That’s why the “Green Bay model” - despite anecdotal success, is honestly terrible resource management
P Bean is about to find you
I think 1 year is fine, 2 is OK. 3 is terrible, though.
I was making this argument for JJ last night, though, not the 6th year guy.
Posted on 4/26/24 at 9:30 am to wildtigercat93
quote:
That’s why the “Green Bay model” - despite anecdotal success, is honestly terrible resource management
I understand that anecdotal evidence is misleading, but at what point does following a logical process that makes sense on paper but produces subpar results indicate the process is flawed?
I know this is still early on in the rookie wage scale era and teams adjusting to new salary cap rules, but at what point do we say maybe that organization is closing it right and we aren’t?
Posted on 4/26/24 at 9:33 am to Oilfieldbiology
quote:
I understand that anecdotal evidence is misleading, but at what point does following a logical process that makes sense on paper but produces subpar results indicate the process is flawed?
Idk but 2 successful examples over the course of 20 years probably isn’t that threshold
Posted on 4/26/24 at 9:36 am to wildtigercat93
quote:
Idk but 2 successful examples over the course of 20 years probably isn’t that threshold
So what about all the failed examples of reaching for QB’s at the expense of the rest of the team? Do they not count?
Posted on 4/26/24 at 9:45 am to Oilfieldbiology
quote:
So what about all the failed examples of reaching for QB’s at the expense of the rest of the team? Do they not count?
drafting a good QB is a low percentage shot now matter how you take it
That’s part of what makes it bad process to burn those cheap years on a young QB sitting on the bench to see what he really is. Worst thing that can happen to you with drafting a young QB is not him being a massive bust, rather him flashing late in his rookie deal and you needing to make a decision on his contract sooner than you want (ie daniel jones) and then them regressing to the mean
My argument isn’t to take a QB early no matter what, I’m just saying if you are taking a QB early, he needs to be playing by year 2 or your lighting value and the biggest advantage in sports on fire
This post was edited on 4/26/24 at 9:46 am
Posted on 4/26/24 at 12:56 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
It's a takeaway, but a bad one
Defense adjusts to the offense and had a pretty good advantage last year, IIRC
This just wasn't a draft with elite D talent. No elite edges, no 2-way DIs, 2 good CBs who had some issues. No great coverage safeties.
The statistics bear out that offensive yards per game has had a steady increased since 2000. League average passing yards per game has gone from 204 to 234. Rushing yards have remained steady going from 113 to 117. The last two season have had a correction about 10 total yards per game across the league.
Oddly enough the number of total TDs scored and points per game has remained very steady. Rules certainly favor offense when it comes to yards, but it hasn't affected point totals.
There's definitely truth in the class being light on quality defense; the trend does favor that teams are more focused on offense. Offensive players were drafted on average in 14 spots during the first round before 2010, starting in 2010 the average has pushed to nearly 18. 2017 was an outlier that drove the average down with only 13 offensive players going in the first round.
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