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Posted on 3/14/24 at 10:25 pm to moneyg
RFK will attract independents that voted for Biden in 2020, aka…. Buyers remorse.
Posted on 3/14/24 at 11:30 pm to moneyg
quote:
Polling doesn't support this
Even without polling data, the OPs claim doesn’t make any sense. Those who voted for Trump in 2020 will vote for him again. Never Trumper republicans might vote for RFK, but they didn’t vote Trump in 2020 any ways. He isn’t going to get fewer votes. Some people who voted for Biden in 2020, but are getting crushed by Bidenomics, will vote for Trump. The rest of those Dems who are dissatisfied with the Biden presidency are likely to vote RFK. Biden will get fewer votes. Unless the dems find even more blank ballots to fill out…
Posted on 3/15/24 at 5:55 am to moneyg
quote:
Polling doesn't support this
Maybe not the right thread for this but I’ll go anyway.
Polling has gotten more and more suspect. It’s getting harder every year to reach a truly representative sample. Many polls incentivize participation, leading to fraud and bots taking polls. For those that don’t incentivize, it tends to skew too old and to certain other demos.
The solution to the latter from pollsters is to weight the polling data, which introduces its own statistical issues.
We’ve seen the effects of these issues become more pronounced in recent election cycles.
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