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re: Why is the stock market rallying right now?
Posted on 2/27/24 at 8:30 am to LaBornNRaised
Posted on 2/27/24 at 8:30 am to LaBornNRaised
quote:
while most stocks are down over 50%
The Mag 7 is responsible for ~30% of the S&P's growth. This is an incredibly small amount of companies (1.6%) responsible for a vastly disparate amount of growth (and, as such, should be looked at as more of a potential bubble than a permanent fixture), but basic math says that "most stocks" can't possibly be down 50% with the overall market as high as it is even removing that marginal growth.
The S&P is currently at $5,069.53, a year ago it was at $3,982.24. That's $1,087.29 in growth over the last year. Thirty percent of that (Mag 7's contribution) is $326.187. That means without the Mag 7, the market would likely be somewhere around $4,743.34 which would put it at nearly the highest amount (it got only a few points higher toward the end of December 2021).
Posted on 2/27/24 at 8:44 am to Bard
quote:
The S&P is currently at $5,069.53, a year ago it was at $3,982.24. That's $1,087.29 in growth over the last year. Thirty percent of that (Mag 7's contribution) is $326.187. That means without the Mag 7, the market would likely be somewhere around $4,743.34 which would put it at nearly the highest amount (it got only a few points higher toward the end of December 2021).
But but but X said……
Posted on 2/27/24 at 12:07 pm to Bard
quote:Agree with your basic math comment, but I thought this an interesting comparison regarding a small amount of companies responsible for a disparate amount of growth.
This is an incredibly small amount of companies (1.6%) responsible for a vastly disparate amount of growth (and, as such, should be looked at as more of a potential bubble than a permanent fixture)
Are other countries running stock markets with evenly-distributed results, or are they top-heavy as well as the USA? They're top-heavy. Here's a comparison, based on MSCI country stock market ETFs, and using the S&P 500 via SPY for the United States:
quote:
Top 10 Holdings Market Concentration (%):
66 Italy
58 France
58 Germany
56 Brazil
49 UK
43 Canada
42 China
31 USA via SPY
26 Japan
America is closer to the less concentrated end than the most.
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