re: LSU 75 vs. #17 UK 74 | Miracle Finish!!! Tigers Win!! Tigers Win!!

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Mpo State is a 2 pt favorite -- current line

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Expected.

State is the opposite of South Carolina in terms of oddsmaking. SC has a great record and some good wins, but the predictive data suggests they are as good as the record suggest. State, on the other hand, has a worse record, yet the predictive data suggest they are better than what their record says.

The bottom line is that State rebounds well and plays great defense. But they also haven't beaten anyone worth a shite on the road. Literally one true road win...over Missouri. Are they a bad matchup for LSU? Maybe. But while LSU is really great at nothing, they've generally found a way to be good enough during the game to be competitive. If they are shite on offense at some point in the game, don't worry, they'll get better. If they are shite on defense during the game, don't worry, they'll find a way to get a few stops at some point. Of course, it would be nice if they didn't have to crap all over themselves to figure how to fix it.

Possible good scenario:

LSU is playing with the most confidence they've had all season. The crowd is finally behind them and they knock more than usual shots from 3 to mitigate State's defense and rebounding prowess. The home atmosphere provides the emotional juice they left on the floor vs. Kentucky

Possible bad scenario:

It's tough to bounce back emotionally from Wednesday and LSU struggles with a target on their back for the first time this season. The game turns into the A&M (home) game. A frustrating slog where neither team is good offensively, but State dominates the glass to find enough second chance points to win.