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Message
re: LSU MBB are favorites vs a ranked opponent
Posted on 1/17/24 at 11:15 am to JimTiger72
Posted on 1/17/24 at 11:15 am to JimTiger72
quote:
Can you explain this a little better?
LSU was a +11.5 dog at A&M, but won by 15.
Now they’re -3 favorites
The sportsbooks generally have their own predicative power ratings which are a numerical analysis. Ole Miss's power rating number is probably about 1.5 - 2.5 points higher than LSU's. That means on a neutral floor, OM would be a 1.5 - 2.5 favorite. But homecourt advantage is BIG in college basketball. Generally worth anywhere from 3-6 points. And that homecourt advantage isn't strictly tied to just how raucous of a home atmosphere to you have. It's simply that winning games in another teams' gym is tough. That's why home underdogs in CBB is usually a really good bet. Unranked home teams beat ranked away teams pretty regularly.
So if OM's power rating number is, say, 9.0 and LSU's is 7.5, you give LSU an additional 4.5 points for being at home and the spread is LSU (-3)
Or to put it in simpler terms. The predictive data suggests OM isn't as good as their record indicates. On the flip side, that data suggests A&M is better than their record indicates. I tend to agree. The only WTF result in A&M's first 4 games is the LSU loss. I think A&M just wasn't prepared and LSU beat them at their own game (rebounding). Since that time A&M has played a brutal schedule. They lost at Auburn in a game that was much closer than the final total suggests (one score game in the final 1:00). They beat UK at home and then lost by 1 last night @ Arkansas...a very though place to play.
This post was edited on 1/17/24 at 11:25 am
Posted on 1/17/24 at 11:49 am to 225Tyga
un-ranked home favorite over ranked is an automatic play. LSU ML HEAVY
Posted on 1/17/24 at 11:52 am to JimTiger72
I'm shocked that 80% are on LSU -3 even at home. This isn't the same Ole Miss team from last season. They now have 8 guys that can play, several that can shoot, and are only 7 and 10 games respectively into figuring out the rotation with our old friends Brandon Murray and Mousa Cisse eligible to play. I would imagine that Sharp / Cisse will give us trouble with their blocking and rebounding ability while their backcourt challenges us with the 3 - both are trouble spots for us.
Posted on 1/17/24 at 12:05 pm to onepiecemayne
quote:
un-ranked home favorite over ranked is an automatic play. LSU ML HEAVY
It's gross but you're right.
Posted on 1/17/24 at 12:08 pm to JimTiger72
I put $100 on Ole Miss at +139.
I still hope LSU wins.
I still hope LSU wins.
Posted on 1/17/24 at 12:14 pm to JimTiger72
CBS Sports is showing 88% of the public is on LSU ML.
Draftkings is showing 40% LSU.
u150.5 seems like the best bet to me
Draftkings is showing 40% LSU.
u150.5 seems like the best bet to me
Posted on 1/17/24 at 12:58 pm to lsudave1
quote:
I think this most likely happens, but Vandy’s weird arse stadium gives everyone fits and they win games they shouldn’t there all the time.
Like two years ago against Will Wade's LSU team.
Posted on 1/17/24 at 4:02 pm to JimTiger72
quote:
It is hard to win on the road in CBB.
I thought it was wild that K-state was favored at home vs #9 Baylor last night & ksu won.
College Basketball (Men's at least) is the sport in which the home team has the biggest advantage statistically. Here is a study they did several years ago. Most teams that lose games they shouldn't lose them on the road.
Posted on 1/17/24 at 5:33 pm to JimTiger72
More bets coming in on LSU since earlier today:
Posted on 1/17/24 at 7:28 pm to JimTiger72
Got some dumb bitches in here
Posted on 1/17/24 at 7:57 pm to 225Tyga
How is that HEAVY gamble against the Tigers looking?
Posted on 1/17/24 at 8:05 pm to Pollo10
Pretty good since I DIDNT BET IT
Posted on 1/17/24 at 8:07 pm to onepiecemayne
No nuts, no glory. Cash me outside
Posted on 1/17/24 at 8:27 pm to 225Tyga
quote:
225Tyga
You’re such a queer
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