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re: Anyone know Mason Smith’s draft position projection?
Posted on 1/10/24 at 10:58 am to Not Cooper
Posted on 1/10/24 at 10:58 am to Not Cooper
quote:
Not Cooper
Let's play out the hypo.
Let's "give" him the third round contract. Here's the facts on Kobie Turner's contract who was drafted in the middle of the third last year.
So Maason takes his $921K signing bonus (the only part of his contract that is guaranteed) and then plays EVERY SINGLE SNAP FOR THE NEXT FOUR YEARS knowing that it could be the end and he gets nothing.
As noted, the NFL rookie contracts are not pro rata. The salary is only $750K in year one. You have to make it two years without injury to get to average.
In contrast, here is Mazi Smith's contract. Smith was drafted at the end of the first round. First off, he puts $6.6 million in the bank when he signs. 7x what Turner got. And the remainder of his contract is fully guaranteed.
I'm not even going to use Jalen Carter's contract because a top 10 pick is a stretch. But those numbers are eye popping and Maason's measurables are more comparable to Carter than to Mazi.
At any rate, there are three broad scenarios:
1. Go now, take the $921K plus $750K your first year and hope and pray you make it unscathed for four years so you can finally earn big money.
2. Work your arse off all offseason and get yourself physically and mentally prepared to get back to being dominant. Two extreme outcomes there:
A. You do what we all think you can potentially do and you get a much more secure and lucrative contract for four years.
B. You don't improve and you fall further in the 2025 draft than you would have in the 2024 draft. Now your comp is Jacqueline Roy. Your gamble has cost you $550K on your signing bonus, about $1 million over the course of the 4 years, and of course, a year delay.
Now factor in the fact that if you think you will survive in the NFL for four years, don't you think you also believe in yourself enough to dominate the SEC next year?
The risks he is taking in coming back is not as big of a deal as anyone is making it out to be. The upside is enormous. This is not a hard decision for a guy with Maason Smith's god given abilities to make.
This post was edited on 1/10/24 at 10:59 am
Posted on 1/10/24 at 11:09 am to ROPO
quote:
1. Go now, take the $921K plus $750K your first year and hope and pray you make it unscathed for four years so you can finally earn big money.
That’s well over $1million MORE than he would make at LSU this year. An ACL injury (he’s already had one) and it all goes to nothing.
quote:
This is not a hard decision for a guy with Maason Smith's god given abilities to make.
It’s very easy to say that with no skin in the game. How many people are turning down $2 million for a chance at MAYBE getting $6 million next year?
All of this is without factoring in that maybe he’s just ready to move on to the next phase.
Posted on 1/11/24 at 11:28 am to ROPO
A well considered opinion. Rare in these parts. Were it I, I would stay at LSU with all my focus on being other worldly dominant to get a top 10 pick. But that is just how I roll.
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