re: 57% of Tommy John surgeries in USA performed on 15-19 year olds .

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This is usually my main point in these threads. It’s not “bad” mechanics that are causing more arm problems; it’s actually “good” mechanics. We know how to get young kids to throw really hard. Theres so much data involved that they are being taught how to maximize speed earlier and earlier. It’s not quantity that is causing the uptick. It’s the quality. A kid who is 16, throwing 90 mph 25 times an outing is more damaging than the same kid throwing 85 mph 50 times.

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It's all of it. Cracker jack coaches that are getting kids to throw harder but with poor mechanics, kids throwing entirely too many pitches bc the restrictions are often based on innings and not a pitch count, and kids just throwing harder at a young age (even with good mechanics and strict pitch count) that puts strain on their arm before it's fully developed. Re pitch counts: kids are also pitching for their travel team all weekend then jumping right back on the mound during the week for their rec ball team. No matter how good the restrictions are for either, or how good your mechanics are, your pitch count starts at 0 when you cross over. And, you just can't develop a kid enough to handle that workload and velocity - they're kids. You also see way more kids playing pitcher and catcher now. So, they throw their limit on the mound and throw every pitch before, after, and in between back to the other pitchers.

Something else I have no proof of but worth considering: the portable mounds so often used now are way higher than the natural mounds. If a kid's lower half isn't developed, the whip they can create is just too much to handle. You can literally throw all arm off those sky scraper mounds. Yes, I know you probably tore your arm up on natural but TJ was more the exception than it is the norm now.