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Started By
Message
re: Car thefts and break-ins in New Orleans
Posted on 12/15/23 at 8:02 am to Captain Want
Posted on 12/15/23 at 8:02 am to Captain Want
It’s happening for sure.
But here’s the truth… google says greater NO population is 1.2 million. So let’s say there’s 500,000 cars in the area. That’s less than half the population.
If 10 cars are broken into or stolen each day, then that’s 0.00002% of cars affected daily. So if your car is there every day of the year, you have a 0.007% chance of it being broken into or stolen at some point each year.
Yes, it’s happening.
Yes, it can happen to you.
No, it’s not statistically probable that your car will be affected.
But here’s the truth… google says greater NO population is 1.2 million. So let’s say there’s 500,000 cars in the area. That’s less than half the population.
If 10 cars are broken into or stolen each day, then that’s 0.00002% of cars affected daily. So if your car is there every day of the year, you have a 0.007% chance of it being broken into or stolen at some point each year.
Yes, it’s happening.
Yes, it can happen to you.
No, it’s not statistically probable that your car will be affected.
This post was edited on 12/15/23 at 8:03 am
5
Posted on 12/15/23 at 8:11 am to SixthAndBarone
The waves of the mass car window breaking seems to have subsided. During the peak, groups of mostly teenagers would go around the city and break the window on every car on a street, then haul arse in a stolen car. They would even hit the parking areas of large events like concerts and sports events.
There seemed to be no motive except “frick you”. Sure, they’d steal something if was right in plain view, but they mostly just moved quickly down the street, smashing.
Now we’re back to regular car theft and break-ins, which is significant but not as massive as those waves of roaming frickwads.
There seemed to be no motive except “frick you”. Sure, they’d steal something if was right in plain view, but they mostly just moved quickly down the street, smashing.
Now we’re back to regular car theft and break-ins, which is significant but not as massive as those waves of roaming frickwads.
Posted on 12/15/23 at 8:25 am to SixthAndBarone
quote:
If 10 cars are broken into or stolen each day, then that’s 0.00002% of cars affected daily. So if your car is there every day of the year, you have a 0.007% chance of it being broken into or stolen at some point each year.
Any reason you picked such a comically small number for the daily rate?
Posted on 12/15/23 at 8:53 am to SixthAndBarone
quote:
No, it’s not statistically probable that your car will be affected.
Think the narrative here is to address how shitty NO is. Try to keep up.
Posted on 12/15/23 at 9:19 am to SixthAndBarone
quote:
greater NO population is 1.2 million.
Greater NO means Metairie, Kenner, Covington, Slidell, Belle Chase, etc... Nobody is breaking into cars at the Rouse's in Metairie or Belle Chase.
So your denominator was off by 4x, which really tilts the math even if only ten cars were broken into that day. Which is another choice of math. Why use "per day"? Are we only talking about Tuesdays or Fridays? Thursdays don't count??? Because your insurance company spreads your claims over a year. And you'll have to pay for the deductable regardless of what day, and then higher rates for a few years.
There are over 10,000 car burglaries per year in a down year according to the link below from WWL. That means there are about 25-30/day, not ten.
That means you have a 0.03 chance of being broken into each year in New Orleans. That's rotten odds.
This post was edited on 12/15/23 at 9:21 am
Posted on 12/15/23 at 9:19 am to SixthAndBarone
quote:
But here’s the truth… google says greater NO population is 1.2 million. So let’s say there’s 500,000 cars in the area. That’s less than half the population.
Here’s the truth. Your numbers are comical. Three are about 376,000 people in New Orleans. The average for the first five months was 23 cars per day stolen. That number has dropped to about 20 cars per day stolen. Reported break ins were sober 20 per day as of July. That is just reported, and we all know not every break in is reported. So, quadruple your number of break-ins/thefts and reduce the number of cars by a significant amount to get a somewhat more accurate read.
This post was edited on 12/15/23 at 9:22 am
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