re: Is the pendulum starting to swing back?

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I have no faith that they will vote any different regardless of what they see or feel about the current situation.

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Exactly.

They support the "team" and will always support the "team". They may want a new coach for the team. But they aren't walking away from the team.

Second, the 2020 mass mail-in voting changed everything. Prior to that, by and large, if you wanted to vote you had to show up to the poll. At minimum, if the D's wanted to get votes from people who otherwise didn't care to vote, they had to give them a bag lunch, $20, and a ride to the poll.

That wasn't necessary in 2020. All you had to do is swing by the house and pay a few bucks for the ballot that was mailed to the individual. Thousands, maybe millions, of people nationwide "voted" in the 2020 election without being aware they actually voted or who they voted for. All they did was just sell/give their government issued piece of paper to so low-level campaign worker.

If totally unfettered and unregulated mail in voting is allowed in 2024 there is no chance of anything changing.