re: US crude output to rise to record 12.76 million bpd in 2023

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And meanwhile, the damn fools pulling his strings want to shutdown fracking among other advanced tools.

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In late 2019, as various candidates jockeyed to win the Democratic nomination for president, Elizabeth Warren made the statement that she would “ban fracking everywhere.”

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Then Joe Biden came along and pandered to the same crowd Warren was trying to impress. He promised “no new fracking”, but once again I explained why that promise wouldn’t be fulfilled.

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But what Biden can’t do by executive order is an overall ban on fracking, because most fracking takes place on private land. A complete ban would have to be passed by Congress, and that looks like a longshot.

For a more in-depth interpretation of Biden’s recent executive orders, I spoke with Stacey Morris, who is Director of Research for midstream index and data provider Alerian. She explained that the orders were certainly not as bad as they seemed:

“These executive orders were pretty well-telegraphed. They were even a little bit softened from what was said during the campaign. The language on the Biden website discussed banning permitting on federal land. The executive order is a pause on new leases. They aren't looking at a full out fracking ban.”

When I asked how companies might be affected, she explained “Companies have been stockpiling permits in anticipation of a move like this. Right now there are 7,700 unused permits. For example, Devon EnergyDVN +0.4% has over four years of permit backlog and drilling inventory. They expect to be able to execute on their federal lands program based on comments made in November.”

She added that some states that could be most impacted longer term are New Mexico, Wyoming, North Dakota, and Colorado. In the long run, she said that a ban on drilling on federal land could lead to more imports. In that case we could end up using oil that is produced with more associated carbon emissions than if it had been produced in the U.S.

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