re: As someone who’s supported Desantis over Trump since the midterms

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And I have no doubt that everyone who voted for him in 2020 will do so again.

That isn’t good enough, and I don’t know what to tell you if you think Trump has or will gain voters from 2020.

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And nobody knows what to tell you, if you believe Biden actually got 81 million votes.

Unless something dramatic happens, I think Trump is the odds on favorite to win the primary. Trump has remade the Republican party, and that remake makes him the favorite in the Republican primary, based on poll results:

"The Echelon Insights poll has Trump leading DeSantis 46-31 overall but among non-college voters that gap expands to 54-27. Among college graduates, DeSantis holds a 3-point lead. That ain’t gonna cut it for DeSantis in a party where the non-college bloc is large and growing.

Echelon’s survey was no outlier. A recent poll from Emerson College found Trump ahead of DeSantis 55-25 thanks largely to the 72 percent of voters without a college degree who prefer him to the governor. Same story at Fox News, where Trump leads by 15 overall but by 28 among whites without a college degree. Among whites who did graduate from college, DeSantis leads by 7. Quinnipiac too: Although DeSantis leads by a whopping 29 points among college-grad whites, he trails Trump 42-36 overall. That’s because Trump holds a 45-35 lead among the non-college white majority.

The dynamic recurs even in polls where DeSantis does well. A recent survey of Republicans in Virginia found him ahead of Trump by 3 points despite narrowly trailing the former president among voters without a college degree. It’s college graduates, particularly those who live in the D.C. suburbs, to whom DeSantis owes his margin; he crushes Trump among those voters. Meanwhile, in California, Trump leads by double digits among non-college Republicans but trails DeSantis overall, 37-29. You know why: The governor has an 18-point advantage among college grads and 28-point advantage among postgrads. He also leads narrowly with voters who have some college or trade-school experience but haven’t graduated, a huge slice of the poll’s sample."

So it looks like Trump should win the Republican primary, and then lose again to Biden or whoever the Dems nominate, because Trump has only consolidated his base among Republicans and driven away a large share of the college-educated bloc, who would vote against Trump in the Republican primary and then either stay home or vote democratic in the general. I guess we'll see...