re: US CPI data release today

quote:

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It’s way too early to judge the January rate hike. The print today had nothing to do with that decision.

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Ha! No kidding. Of course it is too early to see the impact of rate hike that happened two weeks ago. It is pretty easy to see what the results will be based on prior actions. I I am judging the moves from six months ago that clearly were not enough. And now he is going down to .25, which is not going to be enough when we get data in six months. The way things are going, rate hikes are going to have to be prolonged or he’s actually going to have to go back up, which is going to have an even worse impact on the market than the perceived short term benefit of dropping to .25 with the most recent move. Powell and the Fed got us into this crap by being the only people on the planet to think inflation was transitory for WAY longer than anyone else.. Now, he’s too scared to do what is necessary and raise rates with sufficient force to kill inflation. He now has us in a quagmire of high rates and continuing inflation. The last time inflation was this hot, the Fed rate was closer to 17 to kill inflation quickly. Powell is scared to make anything close to 1/3 of that.

They are so scared to hurt the stock market they are missing the major current issue, which is price volatility. Hey need to get price volatility down. With price volatility comes an inability to gauge earnings, production costs and margins. Thus, those are going to get passed on by higher prices or delayed investments, neither of which are good for the economy or businesses in the long run.

Everyone is so scared of short term pain in the market (especially the Fed), including investors (many on this board as I think you previously said people had lost their dang minds thinking mortgage rates would get to 7-8%). We are nowhere near historical P/Es for a bear market to end (typically 15-16/1). We are actually at higher end P/Es, with an economy that has high volatility, high inflation, wages that are already beginning to creep back up and very low unemployment. Powell is too worried about the market to actually fix the problem he created in the first place by being so obtuse. He has us in a high volatility, low liquidity, high inflation economy that is not good for long term growth or business investment.