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re: US CPI data release today
Posted on 2/14/23 at 3:03 pm to buckeye_vol
Posted on 2/14/23 at 3:03 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
Well M2 peaked at $21.7397 trillion in March and was down 2.5% in December to $21.2074 trillion, which appears to be the largest contraction since the data series began in 1959
It's taken almost a year to drop 2.5% but it needs to drop at least another 15% on top of that to be in line with where it would have been without COVID. It will be interesting to see how much that drop rate increases with higher hanging around for a while.
Posted on 2/14/23 at 9:10 pm to Bard
quote:I was just trying to do this quickly on my phone, but by math, using the 60 year growth trend pre-covid, M2 would need to contract by about 5% by the end of the year to be on trend. I think a 15% contraction would probably set us in a deflationary recession, but I think 5% is a more reasonable contraction for a "soft landing," or at least a "softer" one.
It's taken almost a year to drop 2.5% but it needs to drop at least another 15% on top of that to be in line with where it would have been without COVID.
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