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Started By
Message
re: Baseball Preview 2023 Edition (Feb 10th - Pro Prospects & SEC Standings)
Posted on 2/1/23 at 5:45 am to Adam4848
Posted on 2/1/23 at 5:45 am to Adam4848
STARTING PITCHING
Friday – Paul Skenes 6’6 247lbs Jr. (20) Throws- Right
Saturday – Thatcher Hurd 6’4 214lbs So. (36) Throws-Right
Sunday – Ty Floyd 6’2 200lbs Jr. (9) Throws-Right
Midweek – Chase Shores 6’8 245lbs Fr. (34) Throws-Right
Jay Johnson completely overhauled this pitching staff in one offseason which will give him and Wes a number of options and ways they can bridge to the back end of the bullpen. I’ll try and explain how I think this rotation will work moving forward. If you go and look at any transfer portal list going from D-1 to D-1 schools I would argue both Skenes and Hurd are in the top 5. The best transfer class and the best recruiting class will make things a bit easier. To me Paul Skenes on Friday’s, Thatcher Hurd on Saturday’s, and Ty Floyd on Sunday’s, Chase Shores in the midweek to start.
Paul Skenes will start opening night and has all but locked in the Friday night role for LSU. Paul, a transfer out of Air Force has one of the most physically intimating frames on the mound. Jay Johnson locked up Paul’s commitment last summer with the pitch to transition from C/SP to a starter in the SEC. Skenes has shown the ability to dominate at every position they tried him at…2021 became their closer while hitting 10+ HR’s. They ended up starting him in 2022…where was their ace pitching 85 innings and hitting 10+ HR’s leading Air Force to a regional appearance. Things are going to more focused doing one thing. Paul’s delivery is compact and he’s shown the ability to locate his 2 best pitches in any count he needs to. Fast ball sits 94-98mph and has late run. Slider his best out pitch that shows the same mechanics out of his hand and runs away from right handed hitters. Changeup hasn’t been used a ton maybe 5-10% but has nice life on it…will be interested how often they mix that in. Skenes will be one of those high BB/K rate pitchers so he’ll run his pitch counts up, how deep will he be able to work into games?
Thatcher Hurd would be my Saturday guy. In terms of stuff he might be a Friday night guy any other year. Hurd was another top 50 overall recruit who ended up making it to campus for UCLA as a true freshman in 2022. After dominating early in the non-conference schedule eventually became a weekend starter before suffering a stress fracture in his back similar to Josh Smith during the second week of conference play …an injury that requires complete rest. Thatcher’s recovery has gone better than expected and to date has had no set backs. The only knock I would have on starting him is the stamina will need to be built up where he may go a couple of 4-5 inning stints before they take off the reins…again LSU has the relievers to mask this to an extent early on. Hurds fastball can reach 94-96mph, everything out of his arm tends to stay down in the zone. Great power slider with more vertical break at the end than you’re used to seeing. Change up is fine, I wouldn’t label it as a plus pitch. Hurd has the potential to become a top 10-15 overall pick in next years draft and I would classify him an a well above average number 2 starter. Ceiling is extremely high here.
Ty Floyd most likely will be in LSU’s rotation and I’d leave him as the Sunday guy. Floyd who came into LSU as one of their better pitching prospects has seen both highs and lows…the lows directly relating to the inability to locate any off speed pitches with consistency. Fastball which was down a couple of years ago has started to pick back up where he’s now 92-96mph. Has primarily worked with Wes over the fall to incorporate his curve and changeup in both pitcher and hitters counts. Curve is a true 12-6 with great break which slows the hitters down. Change up is one of my favorite pitches out of him and he’s shown the ability to work it against left handed bats tailing down and way. One thing that does help Ty is the arm slot he uses which hides the ball more so than other arms on this staff. As long as he’s able to mix and match early in the counts on any given day I think the fastball will run quicker to hitters and he’ll be able to get more swing and misses with that pitch over anything else. One of those pitchers who played very well down the stretch and is ready to breakout and become a guy that can get through the order 2-3 times.
Chase Shores is a prospect I basically wrote off who would sign professionally last year. Shores is the 3rd highest rated pitcher from the 2022 high school class to attend college, like I keep saying any other year and Shores would be forced into a Saturday or Sunday role out of necessity. When you start to look at what it’ll take to make a deep run into the SEC tournament/Regionals/Supers/Omaha you need to have a fourth starter groomed and able to take the ball. Shores may very well end up as one of LSU’s top leverage relievers but with some of the high profile names I’m leaving off of this list (Taylor/Little/Collins) you have the chance to get Shores starts during week nights against in state competition. At that point the coaches need to decide whether his arm will be needed on the weekends, personally I think he will but where he fits right now is unclear. Fastball is 95-99mph and sometime during the late spring he’ll touch 100mph when the weather warms. Chase added a lot to his frame the past 3 seasons and with his 6’8 frame he’s got the ability to continue to add strength where his two seem fastball can run up on hitters. Slider shows more break, not sure if that’s something he’s been working with Wes to tweak but it has a ton of life. Changeup is still a work in progress. Has the potential to be a top overall pick in three years.
My take: Overall it’s the best position group on the team, I can’t rate it a perfect score because they haven’t won anything. Everyone of these four guys has the makeup to go in the 1st round of the MLB draft and each pitcher shows great velocity with the ability to strike hitters out. LSU is also going to have a deep bullpen so having starters such as these guys is a luxury but it’s a necessity to winning in Omaha.
Paul Skenes
Arm Strength---------75
Movement-------------70
Stamina----------------65
Control-----------------60
Thatcher Hurd
Arm Strength---------70
Movement-------------70
Stamina----------------50
Control-----------------65
Ty Floyd
Arm Strength---------70
Movement-------------55
Stamina----------------55
Control-----------------50
Chase Shores
Arm Strength---------75
Movement-------------65
Stamina----------------60
Control-----------------60
POSITION ADDITIONS:
Paul Skenes
Thatcher Hurd
Chase Shores
POSITION LOSSES:
Ma’Khail Hilliard
OVERALL POSITION GRADE: 75
Friday – Paul Skenes 6’6 247lbs Jr. (20) Throws- Right
Saturday – Thatcher Hurd 6’4 214lbs So. (36) Throws-Right
Sunday – Ty Floyd 6’2 200lbs Jr. (9) Throws-Right
Midweek – Chase Shores 6’8 245lbs Fr. (34) Throws-Right
Jay Johnson completely overhauled this pitching staff in one offseason which will give him and Wes a number of options and ways they can bridge to the back end of the bullpen. I’ll try and explain how I think this rotation will work moving forward. If you go and look at any transfer portal list going from D-1 to D-1 schools I would argue both Skenes and Hurd are in the top 5. The best transfer class and the best recruiting class will make things a bit easier. To me Paul Skenes on Friday’s, Thatcher Hurd on Saturday’s, and Ty Floyd on Sunday’s, Chase Shores in the midweek to start.
Paul Skenes will start opening night and has all but locked in the Friday night role for LSU. Paul, a transfer out of Air Force has one of the most physically intimating frames on the mound. Jay Johnson locked up Paul’s commitment last summer with the pitch to transition from C/SP to a starter in the SEC. Skenes has shown the ability to dominate at every position they tried him at…2021 became their closer while hitting 10+ HR’s. They ended up starting him in 2022…where was their ace pitching 85 innings and hitting 10+ HR’s leading Air Force to a regional appearance. Things are going to more focused doing one thing. Paul’s delivery is compact and he’s shown the ability to locate his 2 best pitches in any count he needs to. Fast ball sits 94-98mph and has late run. Slider his best out pitch that shows the same mechanics out of his hand and runs away from right handed hitters. Changeup hasn’t been used a ton maybe 5-10% but has nice life on it…will be interested how often they mix that in. Skenes will be one of those high BB/K rate pitchers so he’ll run his pitch counts up, how deep will he be able to work into games?
Thatcher Hurd would be my Saturday guy. In terms of stuff he might be a Friday night guy any other year. Hurd was another top 50 overall recruit who ended up making it to campus for UCLA as a true freshman in 2022. After dominating early in the non-conference schedule eventually became a weekend starter before suffering a stress fracture in his back similar to Josh Smith during the second week of conference play …an injury that requires complete rest. Thatcher’s recovery has gone better than expected and to date has had no set backs. The only knock I would have on starting him is the stamina will need to be built up where he may go a couple of 4-5 inning stints before they take off the reins…again LSU has the relievers to mask this to an extent early on. Hurds fastball can reach 94-96mph, everything out of his arm tends to stay down in the zone. Great power slider with more vertical break at the end than you’re used to seeing. Change up is fine, I wouldn’t label it as a plus pitch. Hurd has the potential to become a top 10-15 overall pick in next years draft and I would classify him an a well above average number 2 starter. Ceiling is extremely high here.
Ty Floyd most likely will be in LSU’s rotation and I’d leave him as the Sunday guy. Floyd who came into LSU as one of their better pitching prospects has seen both highs and lows…the lows directly relating to the inability to locate any off speed pitches with consistency. Fastball which was down a couple of years ago has started to pick back up where he’s now 92-96mph. Has primarily worked with Wes over the fall to incorporate his curve and changeup in both pitcher and hitters counts. Curve is a true 12-6 with great break which slows the hitters down. Change up is one of my favorite pitches out of him and he’s shown the ability to work it against left handed bats tailing down and way. One thing that does help Ty is the arm slot he uses which hides the ball more so than other arms on this staff. As long as he’s able to mix and match early in the counts on any given day I think the fastball will run quicker to hitters and he’ll be able to get more swing and misses with that pitch over anything else. One of those pitchers who played very well down the stretch and is ready to breakout and become a guy that can get through the order 2-3 times.
Chase Shores is a prospect I basically wrote off who would sign professionally last year. Shores is the 3rd highest rated pitcher from the 2022 high school class to attend college, like I keep saying any other year and Shores would be forced into a Saturday or Sunday role out of necessity. When you start to look at what it’ll take to make a deep run into the SEC tournament/Regionals/Supers/Omaha you need to have a fourth starter groomed and able to take the ball. Shores may very well end up as one of LSU’s top leverage relievers but with some of the high profile names I’m leaving off of this list (Taylor/Little/Collins) you have the chance to get Shores starts during week nights against in state competition. At that point the coaches need to decide whether his arm will be needed on the weekends, personally I think he will but where he fits right now is unclear. Fastball is 95-99mph and sometime during the late spring he’ll touch 100mph when the weather warms. Chase added a lot to his frame the past 3 seasons and with his 6’8 frame he’s got the ability to continue to add strength where his two seem fastball can run up on hitters. Slider shows more break, not sure if that’s something he’s been working with Wes to tweak but it has a ton of life. Changeup is still a work in progress. Has the potential to be a top overall pick in three years.
My take: Overall it’s the best position group on the team, I can’t rate it a perfect score because they haven’t won anything. Everyone of these four guys has the makeup to go in the 1st round of the MLB draft and each pitcher shows great velocity with the ability to strike hitters out. LSU is also going to have a deep bullpen so having starters such as these guys is a luxury but it’s a necessity to winning in Omaha.
Paul Skenes
Arm Strength---------75
Movement-------------70
Stamina----------------65
Control-----------------60
Thatcher Hurd
Arm Strength---------70
Movement-------------70
Stamina----------------50
Control-----------------65
Ty Floyd
Arm Strength---------70
Movement-------------55
Stamina----------------55
Control-----------------50
Chase Shores
Arm Strength---------75
Movement-------------65
Stamina----------------60
Control-----------------60
POSITION ADDITIONS:
Paul Skenes
Thatcher Hurd
Chase Shores
POSITION LOSSES:
Ma’Khail Hilliard
OVERALL POSITION GRADE: 75
This post was edited on 2/9/23 at 7:04 am
7
Posted on 2/1/23 at 5:45 am to Adam4848
RELIEF PITCHING
Because there are absolutely no set roles right now I'm going to do my best to briefly go through each pitcher and see where he fits. There are a number of guys who can stretch out more than usual I'll focus in more on these arms and touch on the rest.
Main relief 1 - Grant Taylor 6’3 230lbs So. (50) Throws- Right
Grant Taylor who figures to be still competing for a starting spot will become one of LSU's top relievers if he does slake Money's o. Grant is a draft eligible sophomore in this years MLB draft who has made about as big of a leap as anyone on the team from year one to two. Fastball has been ranging 92-96mph and if he's only needed for a couple of innings that could start to push higher. Curve ball has shown a great spin rate and was unhittable at times during the fall. Slider is a pitch he's shown improvement through the cap code league in 2022. Needs to get the walks down...that was his biggest knock as a freshman. The ceiling here is extremely high no matter where they put him.
Main relief 2 - Christian Little 6’4 225lbs Jr. (99) Throws- Right
Christian Little who was one of the youngest draft eligible players in his draft class and is still young for his classification. Little who spent his first two years at Vanderbilt showed extreme highs and lows, word is still coming out of him playing through some injuries which can explain inconsistences. The physical stuff is there, very strong frame, fastball will push 94-96mph that has nice life. Curve ball is his best secondary pitch that has nice lateral break as well. Little has had one year as a starter and one year as mostly a reliever and it was evident he proved to be more comfortable in 1-2 inning stretches. Averages over a K/inning...as long as his control stays in check he could easily be a person who gives you one inning or four innings on a given night.
Main relief 3 - Bryce Collins 6’0 200lbs RS-Jr. (21) Throws- Right
Bryce Collins will fly under the radar a bit. Fastball velocity is starting to trend up this spring 92-94mph, something he couldn't push last year. Bryce who mostly worked in long relief during the 2022 season has the ability to come in and stretch for long periods of time. The sweeping curveball has arguably the best depth and used in combination with his fastball and changeup he can at the very least make it through the order one time giving you 3-4 innings at a time if needed.
Riley Cooper will be one of LSU's top two situational left handed relievers. A year ago lead LSU in appearances where he averaged about an inning. With less need to stretch out innings this year I can see this using Riley as a specialist where he's shown the ability to come in under high pressure situations. Fastball will usually run 89-91mph and he shows the ability to use both his changeup and curveball in any count.
Nate Ackenhausen is my other pick to become one of LSU's top two situational left handed relievers. Very nice frame from the left side where he's able to sit 90-92mph and mix and a great slider that runs up and in on right handed hitters. Nate to me is going to be a situational piece that could see only 1-2 hitters at a time.
Sam Dutton emerged last season as one of LSU's top freshmen arms and bounced around from reliever to Sunday starter to reliever. Fastball is anywhere from 88-91mph. Does a nice job mixing and matching a his slider and changeup. He may be one of those guys LSU needs to stretch to eat up innings if down or up by alot, will see time early in the year.
Griffin Herring will become the second best freshman arm in this class. Nice left handed frame with deceptive delivery. Is able to get swings and missed on both his changeup and slider. Has the frame where he'll be able to add some weight and improve his fastball velocity over time. Right now he may see some time on the weekends and eventually become a starter in two years.
Aiden Moffett one of the higher power arms has wowed people with his fastball. Velocity has been all over the place anywhere from 94-98mph. Will be a project in the sense of it...needs to continue to improve his both is fastball and offspeed command or he won't get meaningful innings.
Javen Coleman who had Tommy John Surgery after only pitching in 6 innings during 2022 is slightly ahead of schedule and already soft tossing. There are rumors that he'll be able to start throwing bullpen in the next 6-8 weeks...it's still unclear how fast they progress him here. Best case scenario? He's 100% by mid April and becomes a very nice left handed bullpen pieces towards the post season run.
Blake Money who started the opening game for LSU in 2022 figures to be another long reliever. Fastball I've noticed is slightly down...have tried to run this down but have no answers. Something to watch out for.
Garrett Edwards another guy who has shown some improvement in velocity this spring 93-94mph. Long frame where the fastball shows life and a slider that is above average. May be a guy they look to start midweeks to build into a fifth starter.
Will Helmers who has mostly worked as one of LSU's midweek starters/relievers figures to stick in that role. I love Will's competitiveness but his arm angle allows hitters too long to see the ball and when he's not locating on the corners he gets blown up. Anytime he sees time on the weekend may be in mop up duty.
DJ Primeaux the top left handed arm out of Louisiana in 2022 has shown flashes of becoming a really great piece to this bullpen in time. Slider has looked nice off his hands but there's still location inconsistencies and getting acquired to SEC hitting. Most likely will become a long reliever during midweek action.
Micah Bucknam out of Canada was impressive during his 2022 MLB draft league where he put up impressive numbers. Nothing in terms of tools wows you but he misses bats and is able to keep hitters off balance with a slurve and cutter that he has been learning over the past year. One of those guys that plays to contact and will pitch alot of innings for LSU this year.
Nic Bronzini a big left handed pitcher from California may be a year off from getting any meaningful innings. Will see time mostly during the midweek.
Jason Bollman, Kaleb Applebey, and Jaden Noot will not pitch in 2023.
My take: It's a bit harder to try and piece together the bullpen this year...I think with the top heavy talent in the starting rotation and the top heavy talent of a few select relievers combined with Wes Johnson's pitching approach there won't be a need to have 14 guys all "ready" on a given weekend. You replace your top 4 relievers from a year ago in (Gervase/Rezelyman/Vietmeier/Hasty) and yet I feel this group has a chance to be stronger. The 2022 bullpen was about as taxed as they come and it was only a matter of time before it broke. The main names to watch out for this year are Taylor/Little/Collins/Dutton/Edwards which I think will be used to stretch and close games themselves more so than we are accustomed to seeing. The group as a whole is top heavy but there is talent, a number of arms from both sides, and power throwers which makes this group well above average.
Because there are absolutely no set roles right now I'm going to do my best to briefly go through each pitcher and see where he fits. There are a number of guys who can stretch out more than usual I'll focus in more on these arms and touch on the rest.
Main relief 1 - Grant Taylor 6’3 230lbs So. (50) Throws- Right
Grant Taylor who figures to be still competing for a starting spot will become one of LSU's top relievers if he does slake Money's o. Grant is a draft eligible sophomore in this years MLB draft who has made about as big of a leap as anyone on the team from year one to two. Fastball has been ranging 92-96mph and if he's only needed for a couple of innings that could start to push higher. Curve ball has shown a great spin rate and was unhittable at times during the fall. Slider is a pitch he's shown improvement through the cap code league in 2022. Needs to get the walks down...that was his biggest knock as a freshman. The ceiling here is extremely high no matter where they put him.
Main relief 2 - Christian Little 6’4 225lbs Jr. (99) Throws- Right
Christian Little who was one of the youngest draft eligible players in his draft class and is still young for his classification. Little who spent his first two years at Vanderbilt showed extreme highs and lows, word is still coming out of him playing through some injuries which can explain inconsistences. The physical stuff is there, very strong frame, fastball will push 94-96mph that has nice life. Curve ball is his best secondary pitch that has nice lateral break as well. Little has had one year as a starter and one year as mostly a reliever and it was evident he proved to be more comfortable in 1-2 inning stretches. Averages over a K/inning...as long as his control stays in check he could easily be a person who gives you one inning or four innings on a given night.
Main relief 3 - Bryce Collins 6’0 200lbs RS-Jr. (21) Throws- Right
Bryce Collins will fly under the radar a bit. Fastball velocity is starting to trend up this spring 92-94mph, something he couldn't push last year. Bryce who mostly worked in long relief during the 2022 season has the ability to come in and stretch for long periods of time. The sweeping curveball has arguably the best depth and used in combination with his fastball and changeup he can at the very least make it through the order one time giving you 3-4 innings at a time if needed.
Riley Cooper will be one of LSU's top two situational left handed relievers. A year ago lead LSU in appearances where he averaged about an inning. With less need to stretch out innings this year I can see this using Riley as a specialist where he's shown the ability to come in under high pressure situations. Fastball will usually run 89-91mph and he shows the ability to use both his changeup and curveball in any count.
Nate Ackenhausen is my other pick to become one of LSU's top two situational left handed relievers. Very nice frame from the left side where he's able to sit 90-92mph and mix and a great slider that runs up and in on right handed hitters. Nate to me is going to be a situational piece that could see only 1-2 hitters at a time.
Sam Dutton emerged last season as one of LSU's top freshmen arms and bounced around from reliever to Sunday starter to reliever. Fastball is anywhere from 88-91mph. Does a nice job mixing and matching a his slider and changeup. He may be one of those guys LSU needs to stretch to eat up innings if down or up by alot, will see time early in the year.
Griffin Herring will become the second best freshman arm in this class. Nice left handed frame with deceptive delivery. Is able to get swings and missed on both his changeup and slider. Has the frame where he'll be able to add some weight and improve his fastball velocity over time. Right now he may see some time on the weekends and eventually become a starter in two years.
Aiden Moffett one of the higher power arms has wowed people with his fastball. Velocity has been all over the place anywhere from 94-98mph. Will be a project in the sense of it...needs to continue to improve his both is fastball and offspeed command or he won't get meaningful innings.
Javen Coleman who had Tommy John Surgery after only pitching in 6 innings during 2022 is slightly ahead of schedule and already soft tossing. There are rumors that he'll be able to start throwing bullpen in the next 6-8 weeks...it's still unclear how fast they progress him here. Best case scenario? He's 100% by mid April and becomes a very nice left handed bullpen pieces towards the post season run.
Blake Money who started the opening game for LSU in 2022 figures to be another long reliever. Fastball I've noticed is slightly down...have tried to run this down but have no answers. Something to watch out for.
Garrett Edwards another guy who has shown some improvement in velocity this spring 93-94mph. Long frame where the fastball shows life and a slider that is above average. May be a guy they look to start midweeks to build into a fifth starter.
Will Helmers who has mostly worked as one of LSU's midweek starters/relievers figures to stick in that role. I love Will's competitiveness but his arm angle allows hitters too long to see the ball and when he's not locating on the corners he gets blown up. Anytime he sees time on the weekend may be in mop up duty.
DJ Primeaux the top left handed arm out of Louisiana in 2022 has shown flashes of becoming a really great piece to this bullpen in time. Slider has looked nice off his hands but there's still location inconsistencies and getting acquired to SEC hitting. Most likely will become a long reliever during midweek action.
Micah Bucknam out of Canada was impressive during his 2022 MLB draft league where he put up impressive numbers. Nothing in terms of tools wows you but he misses bats and is able to keep hitters off balance with a slurve and cutter that he has been learning over the past year. One of those guys that plays to contact and will pitch alot of innings for LSU this year.
Nic Bronzini a big left handed pitcher from California may be a year off from getting any meaningful innings. Will see time mostly during the midweek.
Jason Bollman, Kaleb Applebey, and Jaden Noot will not pitch in 2023.
My take: It's a bit harder to try and piece together the bullpen this year...I think with the top heavy talent in the starting rotation and the top heavy talent of a few select relievers combined with Wes Johnson's pitching approach there won't be a need to have 14 guys all "ready" on a given weekend. You replace your top 4 relievers from a year ago in (Gervase/Rezelyman/Vietmeier/Hasty) and yet I feel this group has a chance to be stronger. The 2022 bullpen was about as taxed as they come and it was only a matter of time before it broke. The main names to watch out for this year are Taylor/Little/Collins/Dutton/Edwards which I think will be used to stretch and close games themselves more so than we are accustomed to seeing. The group as a whole is top heavy but there is talent, a number of arms from both sides, and power throwers which makes this group well above average.
This post was edited on 2/9/23 at 8:15 am
Posted on 2/8/23 at 7:17 am to Adam4848
Was hoping this update would be in time for my morning dump. Bathroom always fills up after the safety meeting.
Posted on 2/8/23 at 8:16 am to Adam4848
I am very excited to see what these guys can do. I am glad we have Shores for multiple seasons.
This made me a little sad.
quote:
POSITION LOSSES:
Ma’Khail Hilliard
This made me a little sad.
Posted on 2/8/23 at 8:37 am to Adam4848
quote:
Ty Floyd
Arm Strength---------70
Movement-------------55
Stamina----------------55
Control-----------------50
I guess we arent counting fastball movement
Either way, hell of a writeup adam
This post was edited on 2/8/23 at 8:39 am
Posted on 2/8/23 at 10:09 am to Adam4848
If Shores has one/two more pitches that he can locate I see him becoming a weekend starter by April.
Posted on 2/8/23 at 11:00 am to Adam4848
quote:
STARTING PITCHING
quote:
OVERALL POSITION GRADE: 75
Posted on 2/9/23 at 12:00 am to Adam4848
quote:
75
Awesome. Most excited to see what this staff can do.
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