Sports betting 1/12

Yowsers just looked at the action app…

Only regret yesterday was taking Arkansas, frickers even cost me a parlay. Bama seemed too obvious…oh well.

Great day for me yesterday. Hit a +1501 and a +648. First 3+ leg parlays I’ve hit in about a week.

4/7 yesterday on NBA game spreads. Could have been 5/7 of TJ McConnell makes the "meaningless" layup at the end of the Pacers/Knicks game.


Fulham is +310 to beat Chelsea today. A draw is +255. I honestly have no idea why that line is so in favor of Chelsea, on the road. Chelsea are in shambles, and have been terrible as of late.
Fulham have won 4 in a row, 3 of them on the road, and they are in 7th place in the premier league now. Chelsea is in 10th.

I don't know if this is a line b/c random people look at the two team names and just bet on the popular name in Chelsea, or if Vegas knows something to make them think Chelsea should win this one on the road.
Fulham also has Tim Ream and Antonee Robinson starting in defense, so nice cheering for Americans abroad. Pulisic is hurt, as always.

i have been attempting to make my own charts with off/def effeciency, turnovers and sos. updated with teamrankings external charts. season long rankings but attempting to key into value. each team is assigned a weighted average score type, not really a ranking the top 10% of teams score 70 or lower

tonight i have stetson/st thomas/sam houston as the best value




on the favorites side longwood, fgcu, james mad as the best short price. similar mismatches tend to be -7 to -12 or bigger

My only play tonight will likely be cal poly +9.5

Maybe one other. Not a great card

Jbabi336

Sorry, ill be spotty over the weekend, in jamaica

I ran a bunch of numbers the old fashioned way for a couple of years and did pretty dang well with it. It was actually crazy how often my computation would fall right on the Vegas lines for basketball games.

Took, OE/DE, possessions per game, turnovers per game, total rebounds and added or subtracted net posessions based on rebounds and turnovers and then divided out OE/DE team to team and multiplied by possessions to get a score for each team and obviously a total. Think I also adjusted points if there was a discrepancy in 3ptrs made per game. If it was close would look at FT percentages, shooting percentages etc.

It was fun to screw around with when I had time.

Anybody see the duck spreadsheet?

quote:

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sam houston as the best value

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highlighted play on this sheet and stetson only slightly under the threshold

I like Utah spread, but Oregon st is bad bad bad. Colorado beat them by 19 last week