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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Season - 98L Heading Towards S. Texas NHC 10%
Posted on 8/17/22 at 3:15 pm to Dire Wolf
Posted on 8/17/22 at 3:15 pm to Dire Wolf
quote:
space city said there is a good bit of sheer in BOC so hopefully that deters development. Models are starting to show some sloppy rain in SETX over the next week, ill wishcast the frick out of that.
There's still a bunch of shear over a whole lot of the Atlantic.
A sloppy rainmaker to Texas off this system should be the extent.
CCKW passage over Africa with the MJO getting favorable has turned on the wave train. Its still hostile in the MDR, and should remain so for another week at least.
Probably going to see a few sacrificial waves across the MDR in the next 10 days. That'll help moisten the environment as we get toward that last week in August.
Im feeling more confident in the general idea now that there's some model support in that timeframe. Nothing is real on them yet but they're seeing the background environment start to flip to favorable.
ETA: y'all check the new thread
This post was edited on 8/17/22 at 3:22 pm
2
Posted on 8/17/22 at 3:42 pm to Duke
This deserves posting here:
@TylerWSFA12
@backinblack_wx
@TylerWSFA12
quote:
Question for #wxtwitter on this fine Wednesday:
At what point do we at least sort of believe what the GFS is doing?
@backinblack_wx
quote:
Let me help…when there’s broad ensemble support. The gfs has had 16 runs since June 1st where a hurricane has impacted the northern gulf coast outside of 240 hours out. We have had 0 hurricanes impact the northern gulf coast and that includes times of several runs in a row.
Posted on 8/17/22 at 4:54 pm to Duke
quote:
A sloppy rainmaker to Texas off this system should be the extent.
I'll take it.
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