2016 told us 'poll's mean nothing. If Trump runs he is getting boatraced perhaps even worse than 2024. People despise the guy and his 'base' isn't enough to win him an election. He needs Independents, Moderates, and suburban women to win. He got those votes in 2016 but didn't get them in 2020.

GHWB lost in '92 because Ross Perrot stole enough votes in the swing states to allow WJC to win. The same thing happened the HRC in 2016. Jill Stein got 51,000 votes in Michigan (Trump Michigan by ~14,000 votes). Stein got 49,000 votes in Pa (Trump won Pennsylvania by ~44,000 votes). Stein won 31,000 votes in Wisconsin (Trump won Wisconsin by ~23,000) votes. Jill Stein stole enough votes from HRC in the swing states in 2016 to cause HRC the election.

I am not saying that it is the only reason or the main reason why DJT lost in 2020, but it is the biggest reason that nobody hear talks about. The democrats did a good job of making sure liberal voters in the swing states stayed home and did not leave the party again in 2020 like they did in 2016.

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Posted by the808bass

The Lou

Member since Oct 2012

111720 posts

Posted on 8/2/22 at 10:54 am to ronricks

quote:
The same thing happened the HRC in 2016. Jill Stein got 51,000 votes in Michigan (Trump Michigan by ~14,000 votes). Stein got 49,000 votes in Pa (Trump won Pennsylvania by ~44,000 votes). Stein won 31,000 votes in Wisconsin (Trump won Wisconsin by ~23,000) votes. Jill Stein stole enough votes from HRC in the swing states in 2016 to cause HRC the election.

Yes. 2016 was the first year with leftist independents on the ballot.

We are learning so much.

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Posted by the808bass

The Lou

Member since Oct 2012

111720 posts

Posted on 8/2/22 at 10:57 am to ronricks

quote:
The democrats did a good job of making sure liberal voters in the swing states stayed home and did not leave the party again in 2020 like they did in 2016.

LINK

quote:
They are the formerly loyal Democrats who unexpectedly voted for Trump. [Almost] a third of the counties that supported Obama in 2008 and 2012 broke for Trump in 2016. The vast majority of these places voted for Trump in 2020, often by wider margins. These defections are more surprising than the oft-mentioned Nixon Democrats in 1972 or Reagan Democrats in 1984. Those elections were landslides; thus, it is not surprising that Nixon and Reagan flipped many Democratic communities. The elections of 2016 and 2020, however, were not Republican landslides. Trump lost the popular vote. Yet he managed to win some of the most loyal Democratic communities in the nation.

You have a narrative without data points.

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Posted by BurntOrangeMan