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re: NCAA Regional Host Candidate Comparison
Posted on 5/29/22 at 12:51 am to MikeTheTiger71
Posted on 5/29/22 at 12:51 am to MikeTheTiger71
Florida added to the mix. I think that makes 20 contenders for 16 host spots. It’ll be interesting to see how the committee handles USM getting bounced from the CUSA tournament. ULL beating Ga Southern tomorrow would help. Texas beating Oklahoma to drop them below LSU in RPI would also help. Florida probably can’t win the SECT either.
LSU is currently #26 in the RPI. It’s unlikely anyone behind them gets a host spot, unless it’s Arkansas. Arkansas actually has a better record vs the SEC and a better overall season (including the sweep of LSU), but they aren’t playing well of late and the committee probably won’t move past their RPI.
Of the teams ahead of them, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, Georgia, Georgia Tech, DBU, Texas St and Virginia are definitely not hosting. That leaves 19. Tennessee, Oregon St, Stanford, Virginia Tech, Maryland, Miami, A&M, Texas, Oklahoma St. and Notre Dame are definitely in ahead of LSU. That leaves 9 teams for the last 6 spots.
UNC- They are currently #4 in the RPI. The only thing that might keep them out was their 15-15 regular season conference mark. Series wins over E Carolina and Coastal Carolina along with their run to the ACC title game make them almost certain to host.
East Carolina- They are currently #15 in the RPI. If they win tomorrow, they are likely to host. Even with a loss they probably host ahead of LSU.
Oklahoma- Currently right ahead of LSU in RPI. If they win the Big 12 tournament, they will host. If they lose, they are out.
Georgia Southern- They are #7 in the RPI, but the committee must know that’s hollow. They didn’t even win the Sun Belt. If ULL beats them tomorrow denying them the tournament title too, I don’t think they host. If they win, then I just don’t know what the committee will do.
USM- They are out of the CUSA tournament and outside the Top 16 in RPI. That may be enough to keep them for hosting, but I don’t know if the committee will still go with their better RPI.
That leaves 4 teams for anywhere from 1-4 spots: LSU, Auburn, Florida and Louisville. If Florida loses tomorrow I can’t see them getting a spot. If they win, I think they host. LSU deserves a spot ahead of Auburn based on better SEC record and better play down the stretch, but I don’t know if the committee will look past the RPI difference. Louisville would be a 5th host spot for the ACC. I think the SEC gets 4 spots before Louisville gets one. The question comes back to where the committee puts LSU relative to Auburn and Florida if they would be the odd man out.
As it sits right now, my guess is that LSU is #19. A Florida loss probably moves them ahead of both Florida and Louisville (to give the SEC 4 spots). Then they would need either an Oklahoma loss or a Ga Southern loss to get one of the last two host spots.
LSU is currently #26 in the RPI. It’s unlikely anyone behind them gets a host spot, unless it’s Arkansas. Arkansas actually has a better record vs the SEC and a better overall season (including the sweep of LSU), but they aren’t playing well of late and the committee probably won’t move past their RPI.
Of the teams ahead of them, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, Georgia, Georgia Tech, DBU, Texas St and Virginia are definitely not hosting. That leaves 19. Tennessee, Oregon St, Stanford, Virginia Tech, Maryland, Miami, A&M, Texas, Oklahoma St. and Notre Dame are definitely in ahead of LSU. That leaves 9 teams for the last 6 spots.
UNC- They are currently #4 in the RPI. The only thing that might keep them out was their 15-15 regular season conference mark. Series wins over E Carolina and Coastal Carolina along with their run to the ACC title game make them almost certain to host.
East Carolina- They are currently #15 in the RPI. If they win tomorrow, they are likely to host. Even with a loss they probably host ahead of LSU.
Oklahoma- Currently right ahead of LSU in RPI. If they win the Big 12 tournament, they will host. If they lose, they are out.
Georgia Southern- They are #7 in the RPI, but the committee must know that’s hollow. They didn’t even win the Sun Belt. If ULL beats them tomorrow denying them the tournament title too, I don’t think they host. If they win, then I just don’t know what the committee will do.
USM- They are out of the CUSA tournament and outside the Top 16 in RPI. That may be enough to keep them for hosting, but I don’t know if the committee will still go with their better RPI.
That leaves 4 teams for anywhere from 1-4 spots: LSU, Auburn, Florida and Louisville. If Florida loses tomorrow I can’t see them getting a spot. If they win, I think they host. LSU deserves a spot ahead of Auburn based on better SEC record and better play down the stretch, but I don’t know if the committee will look past the RPI difference. Louisville would be a 5th host spot for the ACC. I think the SEC gets 4 spots before Louisville gets one. The question comes back to where the committee puts LSU relative to Auburn and Florida if they would be the odd man out.
As it sits right now, my guess is that LSU is #19. A Florida loss probably moves them ahead of both Florida and Louisville (to give the SEC 4 spots). Then they would need either an Oklahoma loss or a Ga Southern loss to get one of the last two host spots.
4
Posted on 5/29/22 at 12:56 am to MikeTheTiger71
Some people get really excited for college baseball
Posted on 5/29/22 at 1:16 am to MikeTheTiger71
Best writeup I've seen on this.
Way more thought and substance put into it than I would have, whereas mine would be something like:
I can see LSU getting a Regional, on the basis of having a solid conference record in the SEC, and playing a competitive game against Tennessee in the tourney. Definitely not a Top 8 seed, but right on the bubble to be one of the last hosts.
I think your post quantifies what my gut feeling tells me.
Way more thought and substance put into it than I would have, whereas mine would be something like:
I can see LSU getting a Regional, on the basis of having a solid conference record in the SEC, and playing a competitive game against Tennessee in the tourney. Definitely not a Top 8 seed, but right on the bubble to be one of the last hosts.
I think your post quantifies what my gut feeling tells me.
Posted on 5/29/22 at 6:58 am to MikeTheTiger71
Good writeup.
Alot of data there im sure wont even be considered by the committee.
I think of your list of 4 potential hosts, i think louisville is hosting over lsu.
Louisville went 18-11 in conference, has a higher rpi, and better quad 1 record.
Alot of data there im sure wont even be considered by the committee.
I think of your list of 4 potential hosts, i think louisville is hosting over lsu.
Louisville went 18-11 in conference, has a higher rpi, and better quad 1 record.
This post was edited on 5/29/22 at 7:11 am
Posted on 5/29/22 at 5:19 pm to MikeTheTiger71
quote:
Tennessee, Oregon St, Stanford, Virginia Tech, Maryland, Miami, A&M, Texas, Oklahoma St. and Notre Dame are definitely in ahead of LSU. That leaves 9 teams for the last 6 spots.
UNC and E Carolina likely already had spots wrapped up, but they are locked in with wins today. I just don’t see how Ga Southern hosts when they didn’t win either the regular season or conference tournament. That leaves 6 teams for 4 spots with Oklahoma vs Texas still outstanding. I’m not sure how the committee handles that since they are announcing hosts before that game ends. I’m also not sure how they are going to look at USM. They are outside the Top 16 in RPI, but obviously there are teams ahead of them not hosting. I believe LSU deserves a host spot before either of the other SEC teams remaining (Auburn and Florida), but I suspect the committee is going to give precedence to RPI over conference standing. Since at least one of those teams is getting a spot, I think Louisville is safely in as a host. I just don’t have a good feel for who gets the final 3 spots out of Auburn, Florida, LSU, USM and Oklahoma. I really could see any 2 of those 5 being left out. It’s definitely a toss up.
This post was edited on 5/29/22 at 5:22 pm
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