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Started By
Message
re: The Crash Will Blow Everyone’s Mind and It Starts Right Now 5/18
Posted on 5/18/22 at 6:31 pm to RJSambola
Posted on 5/18/22 at 6:31 pm to RJSambola
quote:
There is no way that this is correct. Average rent is what 1000 at best? And this plus ither obligations is only 14% of take home? The average consumer is taking home 7k after tax a month???
It’s probably all debt service divided by all after tax income. People with no debt being down the average a lot.
1
Posted on 5/18/22 at 6:33 pm to sawtooth
quote:
Agreed. I just sold high and now I am waiting for the lows. That 20% loss will be my 20% gain.
bullshite.
Posted on 5/18/22 at 6:40 pm to Hussss
technicals aren't really the tell here ...
the long term debt cycle combined with SUPER low production levels combined with HIGH inflation and SUPER LOW labor participation is a recipe for some bad stuff
in the shortish term, anyway
It does make one wonder what will happen to all those who have been sitting out of the workforce when the shock hits them (inflation/wealth effect/etc.) and employers are posting less and less jobs and actually laying off workers (already happening)
The Fed et al are all making decision on data sets with lags ... the recession is already here whether technical or not
the long term debt cycle combined with SUPER low production levels combined with HIGH inflation and SUPER LOW labor participation is a recipe for some bad stuff
in the shortish term, anyway
It does make one wonder what will happen to all those who have been sitting out of the workforce when the shock hits them (inflation/wealth effect/etc.) and employers are posting less and less jobs and actually laying off workers (already happening)
The Fed et al are all making decision on data sets with lags ... the recession is already here whether technical or not
Posted on 5/18/22 at 7:01 pm to slackster
quote:triggered? You must be getting that arse beat by the machines right now.
Bull shite.
Granted I abandoned ship with all but my best dividend plays too early last year and felt looked Gilligan for awhile but now I’m feeling like Admiral Nimitz waiting for the japs to get in range.
Posted on 5/18/22 at 7:23 pm to DTRooster
quote:
triggered? You must be getting that arse beat by the machines right now.
Not triggered at all, just calling out the bullshite.
This post was edited on 5/18/22 at 7:24 pm
Posted on 5/18/22 at 7:37 pm to DTRooster
IMHO:
I think anyone with half a brain can see the # 1 cause of inflation is due to that F#%$ing Idiot straw man president Brandon's executive orders killing the oil and gas industry. Which is leading to stagflation on everything! All that dumbMoFo has to due is reverse his executive orders back to where they were when Trump was in office, and that's going to be our only saving grace. However the puppet masters pulling his strings won't allow him to do it.
They pumped way to much money into the economy several trillion dollars which leads to more inflation! Now we have the Fed jacking rates, and they need to get rates above 8% to counteract the stagflation. I feel like we are witnessing by far and away the worst president / administration since Jimmy Carter maybe ever! I think a massive recession is certainly coming no matter what Brandon or the Fed does! Brandon makes Carter look good! I see lines at gas pumps and 22% mortgage rates coming!
Yes I agree Covid played a factor in this debacle and messed up supply chains, that is 100% China's fault for spreading it all over the world! Blaming Putin is bullshite the inflation was soring way before the war!
Our only hope is conservatives take 2/3 majority (Not sure if that's even possible with number of seats open) in both house's of congress and they impeach Brandon and that cackling dip shite Kamala then appoint the speaker of the house to take over!
The inflation numbers are going to dip a little bit the next couple of months, but then when those small numbers drop out the equation the number will skyrocket well over 8% in the 3 months before the midterms. If conservatives can take both houses but not get the 2/3 veto override I am not sure what will happen. I would think the market would see it as positive, but the underlying energy BS will still be there, so I expect a bounce up short term if that happens then back to heading to new lows!
If we can't unleash American energy again, and bring down fuel prices we are in for a Great Depression for the next 2.5 years. I don't have a crystal ball so I could be wrong. But when I think about it logically my mind tells me so long as gas is breaking record highs each week it's going to cause prices of everything to surge!
What do you guys think?
I think anyone with half a brain can see the # 1 cause of inflation is due to that F#%$ing Idiot straw man president Brandon's executive orders killing the oil and gas industry. Which is leading to stagflation on everything! All that dumbMoFo has to due is reverse his executive orders back to where they were when Trump was in office, and that's going to be our only saving grace. However the puppet masters pulling his strings won't allow him to do it.
They pumped way to much money into the economy several trillion dollars which leads to more inflation! Now we have the Fed jacking rates, and they need to get rates above 8% to counteract the stagflation. I feel like we are witnessing by far and away the worst president / administration since Jimmy Carter maybe ever! I think a massive recession is certainly coming no matter what Brandon or the Fed does! Brandon makes Carter look good! I see lines at gas pumps and 22% mortgage rates coming!
Yes I agree Covid played a factor in this debacle and messed up supply chains, that is 100% China's fault for spreading it all over the world! Blaming Putin is bullshite the inflation was soring way before the war!
Our only hope is conservatives take 2/3 majority (Not sure if that's even possible with number of seats open) in both house's of congress and they impeach Brandon and that cackling dip shite Kamala then appoint the speaker of the house to take over!
The inflation numbers are going to dip a little bit the next couple of months, but then when those small numbers drop out the equation the number will skyrocket well over 8% in the 3 months before the midterms. If conservatives can take both houses but not get the 2/3 veto override I am not sure what will happen. I would think the market would see it as positive, but the underlying energy BS will still be there, so I expect a bounce up short term if that happens then back to heading to new lows!
If we can't unleash American energy again, and bring down fuel prices we are in for a Great Depression for the next 2.5 years. I don't have a crystal ball so I could be wrong. But when I think about it logically my mind tells me so long as gas is breaking record highs each week it's going to cause prices of everything to surge!
What do you guys think?
Posted on 5/18/22 at 8:17 pm to Thomas98
quote:
What do you guys think?
I think you're your political biases are causing you to simplify a complicated and unique situation. Is Biden's energy policy the main driver of our current situation? No. Is it part of it? Most definitely.
Supply and demand is all jacked up in every single sector. The current and past Presidents pulled trillions of dollars out of their asses for votes. We're in a proxy war with Russia. China is in lockdown 2.0. Energy prices are fricked. We need millions of workers.
You could fix any one of those above things and it still wouldn't magically get us out of this predicament. We're between Scylla and Charybdis, and no Republican or Democrat can get us out of it easily.
Posted on 5/18/22 at 9:04 pm to Thomas98
Take a good long hard look at those Republicans who voted FOR the 40 billion in unaudited aid to Ukraine
Fiscal conservatism as we know it is dead, for now.
Fiscal conservatism as we know it is dead, for now.
Posted on 5/18/22 at 10:09 pm to Shankopotomus
America would be sitting pretty if we were still oil independent . However, we still don’t have the refining capacity necessary since several large refiners shut down due to Covid.
Getting gas back 2 dollars a gallon would quickly resolve much of the inflation. Unfortunately, this administration is focused on forcing people to walk and use public transit vs allowing them to use their vehicles.
This will correct. Tourism, airlines, tech toys etc are going to get fricked though
Getting gas back 2 dollars a gallon would quickly resolve much of the inflation. Unfortunately, this administration is focused on forcing people to walk and use public transit vs allowing them to use their vehicles.
This will correct. Tourism, airlines, tech toys etc are going to get fricked though
Posted on 5/18/22 at 10:23 pm to Hussss
Went to money market in 401k in September. Bring on another 50 percent drop.
Posted on 5/18/22 at 10:38 pm to DTRooster
quote:
Bravo
x2.
He put it well.
Posted on 5/18/22 at 11:00 pm to BottomlandBrew
I consider myself an Independent and I vote for the lesser of the two evil pos scumbag choices I have.
Yes China is a huge problem in every aspect. I don't think the Russia invasion will last much longer.
Neither one of these can we fix quickly.
The only thing we can do that would help quickly is for Biden to cancel all his executive orders destroying the American oil and gas industry easily done with the stroke of his pen. Whomever is really making the Presidents decisions for him is a progressive / socialist who will never allow it.
IMHO- Yes Biden is the worst President I have ever seen in my life he can't do anything right, and I am 99.99% sure he is suffering from extreme mental decline if not full blown dementia or worse! He is driving us into the next Great Depression at warp speed!
Yes China is a huge problem in every aspect. I don't think the Russia invasion will last much longer.
Neither one of these can we fix quickly.
The only thing we can do that would help quickly is for Biden to cancel all his executive orders destroying the American oil and gas industry easily done with the stroke of his pen. Whomever is really making the Presidents decisions for him is a progressive / socialist who will never allow it.
IMHO- Yes Biden is the worst President I have ever seen in my life he can't do anything right, and I am 99.99% sure he is suffering from extreme mental decline if not full blown dementia or worse! He is driving us into the next Great Depression at warp speed!
Posted on 5/19/22 at 7:09 am to Strannix
quote:
Not even close
Yeah, I posted that, what, 20 hours ago?
This is a level of volatility seen only in an acute crisis. I guess, to a degree, all these chronic things in the current stack add up to an acute crisis.
Problem with "chronic" issues - they're usually difficult to correct immediately. Getting cheap money out of circulation and making savings actually pay might be painful at first, but is probably the best intermediate step. Problem is - with inflation at these levels, even a modest return on CDs is losing to inflation.
And the masses will cry out for more free money then. We call that, "Doing the Venezuela", which is no bueno.
This post was edited on 5/19/22 at 7:10 am
Posted on 5/26/22 at 8:53 am to Hussss
Been a week and SPY is up over 2% from the 5/18 close.
Maybe you were a little early in calling the crash
Maybe you were a little early in calling the crash
Posted on 5/26/22 at 9:14 am to iAmBatman
Rally to the next fed hike?
Posted on 5/26/22 at 10:46 pm to Thomas98
quote:
I think anyone with half a brain can see the # 1 cause of inflation is due to that F#%$ing Idiot straw man president Brandon's executive orders killing the oil and gas industry
Biden is not the president of the entire world. All across the globe gas is high and inflation is occurring
Posted on 5/26/22 at 10:54 pm to Ace Midnight
quote:
IF (big IF) some good economic news continues to trickle in (even if it is merely "earnings" - in an inflationary cycle, that might not mean a whole lot, but it can be an emotional bolster), this could be, roughly, the bottom (I know, TWSS).
Markets bottom and start their uptrend when news is still doom and gloom.
Posted on 5/27/22 at 10:06 am to LSUtoOmaha
quote:
Markets bottom and start their uptrend when news is still doom and gloom.
This was a good week, no doubt. More than solid after what happened last week.
And, at a certain point, inflation will be priced into stock prices as well. Inflationary increases in the "value" of something is still an increase, right?
Posted on 5/27/22 at 3:19 pm to Hussss
Wow. Another awesome day…this really hasn’t aged well. Knew I should have taken a 2nd mortgage out and put into SPY calls the minute I saw this thread.
Hussss, your position as the best counter-indicator remains firmly intact.
Hussss, your position as the best counter-indicator remains firmly intact.
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