re: "Saints do Saints Things" Draft Grade Article or Why Internet Journalists are Just That

quote:

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The probability that Olave hits is very high so your whole post is garbage

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I'm posting statistical data. It's not my theory.

And the problem is if Olave isn't an all-pro very quickly, we overpaid. If Olave is a bust we completely fricked ourselves.

Also, in terms of proper strategy, Olave hitting or not is somewhat irrelevant. You can do the wrong thing and still have things turn out OK. Using hindsight bias and results-oriented thinking from the future is not the correct way to judge decisions in real time.

If you call an all-in for 100BBs preflop with 7-2, it's a bad decision even if you luckbox a win in the hand. Easiest example for this argument.

I have been explaining this argument on this site for over a decade. The latest example was the idiot Orgeron. Even after we won it all in 2019 I didn't back down from logic and good strategy and I was ultimately proven correct. This is the same situation.