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Started By
Message
What if Putin Didn’t Miscalculate?
Posted on 3/30/22 at 11:15 pm
Posted on 3/30/22 at 11:15 pm
Time will tell if Putin "miscalculated" but, our corrupt, inept, bumbling, stumbling, lying, pathetic "leaders" sure as hell did.
https://dnyuz.com/2022/03/29/what-if-putin-didnt-miscalculate/
quote:
The conventional wisdom is that Vladimir Putin catastrophically miscalculated. He thought Russian-speaking Ukrainians would welcome his troops. They didn’t. He thought he’d swiftly depose Volodymyr Zelensky’s government. He hasn’t.
He thought he’d divide NATO. He’s united it. He thought he had sanction-proofed his economy. He’s wrecked it. He thought the Chinese would help him out. They’re hedging their bets. He thought his modernized military would make mincemeat of Ukrainian forces. The Ukrainians are making mincemeat of his, at least on some fronts.
quote:
Several analysts have compared Putin to a cornered rat, more dangerous now that he’s no longer in control of events. They want to give him a safe way out of the predicament he allegedly created for himself. Hence the almost universal scorn poured on Joe Biden for saying in Poland, “For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power.”
The conventional wisdom is entirely plausible. It has the benefit of vindicating the West’s strategy of supporting Ukraine defensively. And it tends toward the conclusion that the best outcome is one in which Putin finds some face-saving exit: additional Ukrainian territory, a Ukrainian pledge of neutrality, a lifting of some of the sanctions.
But what if the conventional wisdom is wrong? What if the West is only playing into Putin’s hands once again?
quote:
Combine that with Russia’s previous territorial seizures in Crimea (which has huge offshore energy fields) and the eastern provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk (which contain part of an enormous shale-gas field), as well as Putin’s bid to control most or all of Ukraine’s coastline, and the shape of Putin’s ambitions become clear. He’s less interested in reuniting the Russian-speaking world than he is in securing Russia’s energy dominance.
“Under the guise of an invasion, Putin is executing an enormous heist,” said Canadian energy expert David Knight Legg. As for what’s left of a mostly landlocked Ukraine, it will likely become a welfare case for the West, which will help pick up the tab for resettling Ukraine’s refugees to new homes outside of Russian control. In time, a Viktor Orban-like figure could take Ukraine’s presidency, imitating the strongman-style of politics that Putin prefers in his neighbors.
If this analysis is right, then Putin doesn’t seem like the miscalculating loser his critics make him out to be.
quote:
Within Russia, the war has already served Putin’s political purposes. Many in the professional middle class — the people most sympathetic to dissidents like Aleksei Navalny — have gone into self-imposed exile. The remnants of a free press have been shuttered, probably for good.
To the extent that Russia’s military has embarrassed itself, it is more likely to lead to a well-aimed purge from above than a broad revolution from below. Russia’s new energy riches could eventually help it shake loose the grip of sanctions.
Posted on 3/30/22 at 11:24 pm to CommieHater
Because of our corrupt leaders and media, the truth is we don’t know anything about what’s really going on over there.
Posted on 3/31/22 at 1:28 am to TerryDawg03
The point of Putin curshing dissidents back home is a very strong one. This war gave him carte blanche to absolutely shut all opposition back home without fear of being sanctioned. Can't be sanctioned when you're already sanctioned.
Another sinister possibility is perhaps Putin wasn't happy with some of the old guard in the army ranks. Maybe coup was brewing back home? Considering like 6 or 7 high profile generals bit the dust, that is a little unconventional.
Another sinister possibility is perhaps Putin wasn't happy with some of the old guard in the army ranks. Maybe coup was brewing back home? Considering like 6 or 7 high profile generals bit the dust, that is a little unconventional.
Posted on 3/31/22 at 1:56 am to TerryDawg03
quote:
corrupt leaders and media
This. Covid definitely shined a light on our “media”
Posted on 3/31/22 at 1:59 am to WokeGoBroke
quote:
This war gave him carte blanche to absolutely shut all opposition back home without fear of being sanctioned.
Have you considered that the sanctions imposed on the Russian people by the West kinda makes Putin a hero in their eyes. They are not blaming Putin for their hardships. They are blaming us.
We tried that in Iran years ago. Did the Iranian people throw their leaders out?
Posted on 3/31/22 at 2:03 am to sawtooth
quote:
Have you considered that the sanctions imposed on the Russian people by the West kinda makes Putin a hero in their eyes. They are not blaming Putin for their hardships. They are blaming us. We tried that in Iran years ago. Did the Iranian people throw their leaders out?
Post WW1 leading into the rise of Hitler and WW2 is the exact same situation. The world basically sanctioned Germany into Hyper Inflation which made the German people hate the rest of Europe. Hitler and the Nazis came to power and we all know how that ended.
Posted on 3/31/22 at 4:31 am to TigerAttorney
quote:
Nazis came to power and we all know how that ended.
In a war with Russia 77 years later in ukraine?
Posted on 3/31/22 at 5:42 am to WokeGoBroke
quote:
This war gave him carte blanche to absolutely shut all opposition back home
That's what Zelensky did
Posted on 3/31/22 at 5:47 am to CommieHater
quote:
The conventional wisdom is that Vladimir Putin catastrophically miscalculated. He thought Russian-speaking Ukrainians would welcome his troops. They didn’t. He thought he’d swiftly depose Volodymyr Zelensky’s government. He hasn’t. He thought he’d divide NATO. He’s united it. He thought he had sanction-proofed his economy. He’s wrecked it. He thought the Chinese would help him out. They’re hedging their bets. He thought his modernized military would make mincemeat of Ukrainian forces. The Ukrainians are making mincemeat of his, at least on some fronts
Every bit of this is bullshite projection from the west. These asshats are master story tellers
This post was edited on 3/31/22 at 5:49 am
Posted on 3/31/22 at 5:59 am to TerryDawg03
quote:
the truth is we don’t know anything about what’s really going on
This. Exactly.
Hearing everyone’s opinions derived from what “News” Channels say — well I’ll pass. Why would anyone give these proven liars & manipulators any credibility?? Better off thinking for yourself.
Posted on 3/31/22 at 6:07 am to CommieHater
quote:
He thought he’d divide NATO. He’s united it.
Really? Aren't they still buying his oil?
Posted on 3/31/22 at 6:18 am to TerryDawg03
quote:
Because of our corrupt leaders and media, the truth is we don’t know anything about what’s really going on over there
Yep.
The media could report the sky is blue every morning, with analysts and fact-checkers backing the claim, and I would check all the same.
Posted on 3/31/22 at 6:23 am to CommieHater
Trying to beat someone on their home turf is hard. I know that's a difficult concept for the media but it is hard.....ask the Nazis in WWII Re: Russia
Posted on 3/31/22 at 6:29 am to Tchefuncte Tiger
They were warned for decades but opted to think that trade would make Russia much less belicose.
Posted on 3/31/22 at 6:40 am to CommieHater
Meanwhile we are currently decimating our energy production and capabilities.
Entergy independence is power.
Entergy independence is power.
Posted on 3/31/22 at 6:43 am to sawtooth
quote:
Have you considered that the sanctions imposed on the Russian people by the West kinda makes Putin a hero in their eyes.
Any Russian who feels that way already believed Putin was a hero, those opposed to the despot haven't changed their minds and the ambivalent, unpolitical are probably forming opinions against Putin more than for as the results of this castaprophy sink in.
Putin didn't need this war to remain President for life, but he may in fact have hastened his own regime change.
Posted on 3/31/22 at 8:34 am to CarrolltonTiger
Putin is many things but dumb he is not.
Posted on 3/31/22 at 8:40 am to CommieHater
Numbers don't make sense. If you're already an O&G powerhouse, you think you need more to cement your position?
Where's the rationale?
Where's the rationale?
Posted on 3/31/22 at 8:48 am to CommieHater
Putin doesn't have to rush .
He can take as long as he want with Ukraine.
I would like to see all 5 sides lose.
Posted on 3/31/22 at 8:54 am to Jack Carter
quote:
That's what Zelensky did
Who are the 3 tards who downvoted this? They obviously haven't been keeping score.
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