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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 5/6/24 at 4:01 pm to VolSquatch
Posted on 5/6/24 at 4:01 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
And to your second point obviously they could. Is it likely? I doubt it.
WTF makes you doubt it? Almost every military blogger and poster on social media is saying the same thing. Ukraine is digging in. Meanwhile, Ukrainian pilots are currently training of F16s. Poland is repairing Ukrainian Leopards, Rheinmental continues to restore Leopard 1s and deliver them to Ukraine. Ukraine has expanded its draft class size by 200,000, and France is getting ready to send the French Foreign Legion (FFL). Putin does not attack France if the FFL deploys to Ukraine (which I highly doubt Putin is stupid enough to directly attack France) then I expect Poland will join them in sending troops into Ukraine.
quote:
Russia has been doing a lot of the same type of signaling that they are "all-in" in their own way.
Russia has already gone all in and they only gained 86 km^2 in March and April of this year. It is not going to get better for them since 90% of the tanks it is sending to the front from factories are 1950s-1970s era T55s and T62s with new spark plugs and a new paint jobs. The good old fashioned RPG7 which Ukraine still has millions of can knock those tanks out. Russia will launch big offensives this summer and will probably make some gains but unless they change up tactics those gains will be limited and casualties will be high.
ETA: France has denied the French Foreign Legion being deployed to Ukraine. The claim that the FFL had deployed to Ukraine appears to have originated with Russia so it’s likely fake news. I have updated my post to reflect that. I will now go do boes and toes on broken glass for an hour.
This post was edited on 5/7/24 at 7:57 am
4
Posted on 5/6/24 at 5:44 pm to WeeWee
quote:
Poland will join them in sending troops into Ukraine.
This is the most consequential change that I have seen in the past 6 months. France and Poland have basically come out and said: "We're not gonna let Russia win."
There's a good chance they're in this thing 12-15 months from now.
And I think the 6 month "delay" from Washington really had its effect of making Europe realize that this was fundamentally their problem. We can help. But it's their backyard and they will have to lead the way.
Posted on 5/6/24 at 6:33 pm to WeeWee
quote:
Ukraine has expanded its draft class size by 200,000, and parts of the French Foreign Legend have deployed to Ukraine. If Putin does not nuke France in the near future which I highly doubt then I expect Poland will join them in sending troops into Ukraine.
Any troops sent from NATO countries to Ukraine need to be volunteers and contractors, not official Polish or French military. Lots of volunteers have gone, but they could use a bunch of F16 aircraft mechanics and experienced pilots.
Posted on 5/6/24 at 7:24 pm to WeeWee
quote:
Ukraine has expanded its draft class size by 200,000, and parts of the French Foreign Legend have deployed to Ukraine. If Putin does not nuke France in the near future which I highly doubt then I expect Poland will join them in sending troops into Ukraine.
Yes, Ukraine has recently struggled to mobilize enough troops. But if French, Polish, or troops from other NATO nations can replace Ukrainian troops along the Belarus border and the Transnistria border, that would free up over 20,000 Ukrainian troops to actually fight.
Posted on 5/7/24 at 7:20 am to WeeWee
quote:
WTF makes you doubt it
I explained in my comment, if you would have actually read it before getting your panties in a wad you would have understood that if the war is over in 2024 there won't be a counteroffensive in 2025
quote:
Ukraine is digging in
If they are digging in, why would they leave those positions for another counteroffensive?
quote:
If Putin does not nuke France in the near future which I highly doubt then I expect Poland will join them in sending troops into Ukraine.
Well if he doesn't do it before that, the liklihood is much higher that he will after.
quote:
Russia has already gone all in and they only gained 86 km^2 in March and April of this year. It is not going to get better for them since 90% of the tanks it is sending to the front from factories are 1950s-1970s era T55s and T62s with new spark plugs and a new paint jobs. The good old fashioned RPG7 which Ukraine still has millions of can knock those tanks out. Russia will launch big offensives this summer and will probably make some gains but unless they change up tactics those gains will be limited and casualties will be high.
You just aren't understanding that I think all of this renewed movement after very little activity in the past 6mo or so (at least comparitively) is both sides puffing their chests before going to the table. And like I also said in my previous comment that you were too angry to actually read the entirety of, them preparing to go to the table doesn't mean a deal will get done (or that we even find out publicly they went to the table at all).
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