re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Are wars of occupation ever successful?

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There have been imperial wars of occupation that have lasted for centuries. The major European countries all have their former colonies. But in the modern post-20th century world, it seems a complete fantasy to believe that one country could invade another moderately sized and developed country and occupy it for more than a couple of years.

Yet despite the reality of the modern world, Russia thinks it can take over and occupy any other country. They are actually pretty good at it. They install puppet governments, like in Georgia and Belarus, but even in those places where they have had success, the grip on power is precarious.

Your question is good. It also exposes what appears to be the fact, that Russia is living in layers of self-delusion that prevents their leadership, media and population from operating in reality. That un-reality will doom them to make more mistakes.

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I’m generally curious what everyone thinks….

- Are wars of occupation ever successful?
- if yes, what would it take for a war of occupation to be successful?
- if the answer isn’t murder everyone who opposes you, what else can be done?

This isn’t necessarily about Russo/Ukrainian War… just war in general.

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The Israelis have done relatively well in wars of occupation. They've held the West Bank for going on 50+ years with relatively light casualties and all while subduing a population that absolutely hates them. They did ok in southern Lebanon from 82-2000 as well before leaving in large part because of public pressure about casualties.

Apartheid South Africa was moderately successful in Angola as well, intervening in the civil war post Portuguese defeat and occupying part of the country to help one of the factions in the war.

IMO you need a strong local ally to win and to legitimize you in the eyes of the population, without that you end up like us in Afghanistan or Vietnam.