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MileHigh Financial Armageddon - back to level 2

Posted on 10/8/08 at 12:00 pm
Posted by MileHigh
Most likely a mile high
Member since Jan 2004
7920 posts
Posted on 10/8/08 at 12:00 pm
To be clear we are level 2 right now.
---
Back to level 3, seems that the immediate credit crisis clogs are slowly being rebuilt.

-----
Wow, that was a quick trip

Level 4 - Wickedly High - potential for armageddon is high and imminent.

Why?
- Iceland failure
- Russia stock market collapse
- Failure of the coordinated rate cut to free up credit markets.
- Yields on longer term treasuries jumping up. LINK This is the market saying we won't buy your $700b to bail out the banks
- Rumors of a coordinated G7/G8 market closure next week
- Credit markets are still frozen.

Sorry guys.

Level 5 could happen by next Monday, if they really do close the markets next week. That would potentially cause a panic.
This post was edited on 10/24/08 at 11:11 am
Posted by dawgorama
Member since Jun 2004
14690 posts
Posted on 10/8/08 at 12:18 pm to
quote:

if they really do close the markets next week.


Is this being discussed? Link?
Posted by Volvagia
Fort Worth
Member since Mar 2006
52896 posts
Posted on 10/8/08 at 12:18 pm to


Seems like the only folks sitting pretty ATM are the Chinese. They are getting considerable benefits from all this and will continue to do so unless a full blown meltdown occurs and they lose the vast majority of demand for their exports.
Posted by MileHigh
Most likely a mile high
Member since Jan 2004
7920 posts
Posted on 10/8/08 at 12:29 pm to
LINK

Denninger brought it up on his blog today. Market Ticker Forums has more detail. Came off the wire, and rumored in the trading pits.

You have to register.

This rumor is quite scary, but I think a potential. Russia and Indoensia have already done it.
Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 10/8/08 at 12:39 pm to
The only thing that has made any sense is the fed jumping into CP to try and help the real economy.
Posted by MileHigh
Most likely a mile high
Member since Jan 2004
7920 posts
Posted on 10/8/08 at 12:51 pm to
quote:


The only thing that has made any sense is the fed jumping into CP to try and help the real economy.


Yes, and this is exactly why I lowered it to level 3 yesterday.

But it doesn't seem to be having any effect.
Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 10/8/08 at 1:01 pm to
Peeps is just scared I guess. What kind of rate were they offering it at, assuming they're not sitting around like tools? I haven't seen anything about the details yet.
Posted by BS
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2005
16533 posts
Posted on 10/8/08 at 1:25 pm to
How much cash should I keep on hand?

And will we and should we go back to the gold standard? Would that help at all?
Posted by R2D2Tiger
looziana
Member since Oct 2008
445 posts
Posted on 10/8/08 at 3:11 pm to
quote:


And will we and should we go back to the gold standard?


What do you suggest the redemption rate should be? $35 an ounce?
Posted by supatigah
CEO of the Keith Hernandez Fan Club
Member since Mar 2004
89751 posts
Posted on 10/8/08 at 3:28 pm to
if the gold standard were brought back and the dollar was revalued then gold prices would instantly fall but they would level off and eventually come back up but it would take a long time

there is no easy fix and pretty much everything is going to hurt
Posted by R2D2Tiger
looziana
Member since Oct 2008
445 posts
Posted on 10/8/08 at 3:46 pm to
Why would they come back up? The gold price would simply be whatever the redemption rate of the gold is, wouldn't it? The dollar would be pegged to gold.
Posted by supatigah
CEO of the Keith Hernandez Fan Club
Member since Mar 2004
89751 posts
Posted on 10/8/08 at 3:47 pm to
quote:

Why would they come back up?


finite resource
Posted by C
Houston
Member since Dec 2007
28158 posts
Posted on 10/8/08 at 3:53 pm to

Wouldn't gold go through the roof if they did this?
Posted by R2D2Tiger
looziana
Member since Oct 2008
445 posts
Posted on 10/8/08 at 4:01 pm to
That would be a problem then, because in order for the gold standard to work the government has to be able to pay whatever it says the dollar is worth. If the dollar gets pegged at $35 per ounce of gold, then gold will be worth $35 per ounce - unless the government is unable to meet that redemption obligation.


We've only got a few hundred billion dollars worth of gold.

Posted by supatigah
CEO of the Keith Hernandez Fan Club
Member since Mar 2004
89751 posts
Posted on 10/8/08 at 4:05 pm to
the way the treasury has been printing money the reconversion to gold is a non-starter anyway

quote:


We've only got a few hundred billion dollars worth of gold.


we hold a lot more than that for other countries on our shores
Posted by R2D2Tiger
looziana
Member since Oct 2008
445 posts
Posted on 10/8/08 at 4:06 pm to
quote:


Wouldn't gold go through the roof if they did this?


The gold standard requires pegging the value of the dollar to the value of gold. If this happened - gold would be worth whatever that peg value was, unless the government was unable to meet its obligation to pay the gold.


LINK

Look at the history of gold prices. From 1879-1933 gold was exactly 20.67 an ounce. This is because that was the peg rate set by the government.

In 1933 FDR raised it to 35 an ounce. In 1971 the standard was abandoned and gold sky rocketed.



Posted by LSUtoOmaha
Nashville
Member since Apr 2004
26709 posts
Posted on 10/13/08 at 2:38 pm to
Are we back to 3?
Posted by KosmoCramer
Member since Dec 2007
79935 posts
Posted on 10/13/08 at 4:19 pm to
Defcon 3
Posted by Geaux5000
Member since Sep 2007
1568 posts
Posted on 10/13/08 at 5:02 pm to
who is that in your avatar?
Posted by KosmoCramer
Member since Dec 2007
79935 posts
Posted on 10/13/08 at 5:06 pm to
Raven Riley

She's in porn, FWIW. And it's awesome.
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