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re: Tejas Snow/Ice Storm: 2022 Edition (Wednesday Night and Thursday expected timing)
Posted on 1/30/22 at 8:16 pm to 50_Tiger
Posted on 1/30/22 at 8:16 pm to 50_Tiger
It hasn't changed on the models. rds thinks the models arent cooling down the above freezing layer aloft fast enough, and is showing ice when it really will be snow.
Its not an unreasonable idea, given winds should turn out of the north at that level when this image is shown and also precip falling through the level will help cool it some.
But the soundings remain pretty much saturated through that level, which would make the cooling less effective without some of the precip evaporating.
Its a really tricky forecast for DFW/Waco/Austin/SA
Its not an unreasonable idea, given winds should turn out of the north at that level when this image is shown and also precip falling through the level will help cool it some.
But the soundings remain pretty much saturated through that level, which would make the cooling less effective without some of the precip evaporating.
Its a really tricky forecast for DFW/Waco/Austin/SA
2
Posted on 1/30/22 at 9:20 pm to Duke
So much depends on how far SW the main upper shortwave/upper low tracks. Models now have it digging to around or north of El Paso. If it buries itself down deeper into Mexico then things change a good bit. If it does dig a bit deeper into Mexico you will see near blizzard conditions locally across North Texas but if it tracks north of EP then N TX may be a freezing rain and sleet mess. Us in East Texas could see a very nasty ice storm per the current GFS track. Midday Thu right now shows low 20s with heavy rain. Pwats over 1 with temps in 20s is pretty wild.
Posted on 1/30/22 at 9:24 pm to Duke
quote:
But the soundings remain pretty much saturated through that level, which would make the cooling less effective without some of the precip evaporating.
And those soundings are up and down the front. Gonna be interesting to watch it evolve.
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