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Fannie Mae says a recession is likely; could hit the housing market

Posted on 5/20/22 at 1:31 pm
Posted by frequent flyer
USA
Member since Jul 2021
3332 posts
Posted on 5/20/22 at 1:31 pm
This is similar to Goldman, JP Morgan, and Wells Fargo's recent statements....

Fortune

quote:

Fears are mounting that a recession is nearly upon us, with a growing number of banks and investors joining the chorus or warnings that an economic contraction within the next few years is likely.

quote:

Food prices are likely to be major contributors to an economic recession, exacerbated by an ongoing surge in housing prices in the U.S., with fewer potential buyers able to afford them, according to Fannie Mae.

The lender’s last report predicted that a strong housing market might help cushion the blow of a recession, but in its May forecast, the company concedes that the rising mortgage rates will likely contribute to a significant slowdown in home sales as early as this quarter.
Posted by Paul Allen
Montauk, NY
Member since Nov 2007
77254 posts
Posted on 5/20/22 at 1:34 pm to
Homes sales may slow down, but home prices are going to continue to go up, maybe not exponentially like last year, but no less than 8-10% on average increase in many hot markets.
Posted by GreatLakesTiger24
Member since May 2012
57878 posts
Posted on 5/20/22 at 1:35 pm to
quote:

could hit the housing market
Posted by Bottom9
Arsenal Til I Die
Member since Jul 2010
23976 posts
Posted on 5/20/22 at 1:35 pm to
I am okay with this. There is decency and kindness in the White House now.

One party controls both the Executive and Legislative Branches but this isn't their fault. It is the Putin Price Hike.
Posted by TheSadvocate
North Shore
Member since Aug 2020
4518 posts
Posted on 5/20/22 at 1:37 pm to
quote:

could hit the housing market


How long before the White House refers to this as the Putin Plunge?
Posted by dewster
Chicago
Member since Aug 2006
25974 posts
Posted on 5/20/22 at 1:38 pm to
quote:

Homes sales may slow down, but home prices are going to continue to go up, maybe not exponentially like last year, but no less than 8-10% on average increase in many hot markets.



We aren't in a situation where we are overbuilding like 2005-2007. It's a different problem of a lack of inventory.

We just didn't build enough homes in 2012-2022 to really meet the demand created by all these millennials that are finally moving out out of their parent's basement.

I think prices will level off and maybe even fall in some markets where foreclosures are occurring in clusters, but it's less likely to crater like it did 15 years ago unless the upcoming recession people are predicting ends up being REALLY deep. I really hope that doesn't happen.
This post was edited on 5/20/22 at 1:42 pm
Posted by sta4ever
Member since Aug 2014
16964 posts
Posted on 5/20/22 at 1:39 pm to
This recession will be a whole lot worse than the 2008 one huh?
Posted by TxWadingFool
Middle Coast
Member since Sep 2014
5102 posts
Posted on 5/20/22 at 1:40 pm to
Bring it, some have planned accordingly and will flourish, the ones that haven't well I'm sure the Dems will continue to be your mommy and daddy.
Posted by Paul Allen
Montauk, NY
Member since Nov 2007
77254 posts
Posted on 5/20/22 at 1:42 pm to
Adequate inventory is still years away. Home prices will more than likely stabilize before they would drastically dip.
Posted by PrecedentedTimes
Member since Dec 2020
3128 posts
Posted on 5/20/22 at 1:43 pm to
Honestly, the writing was on the wall before the pandemic. You can always tell by looking at the pace of new luxury home sales. This is the price range that attracts the most amount of careless ‘new money’. (This isn’t just my opinion, I read an economic paper on this back in college.)

Prices for luxury homes are taking a serious beating this year. Go look at any suburb on Zillow, the houses that used to be $800k are now getting cut to $700k, etc. I realize this isn’t the case in overheated areas like ATL and Phoenix, but those areas may actually have enough momentum to avoid a collapse. But for places that lack any economic basis for having inflated prices (Prairieville, for example), hold on to your butts.
This post was edited on 5/20/22 at 1:44 pm
Posted by terriblegreen
Souf Badden Rewage
Member since Aug 2011
11301 posts
Posted on 5/20/22 at 1:43 pm to
fricking duh Fannie Mae.
Posted by crap4brain
Louisiana
Member since Sep 2004
2597 posts
Posted on 5/20/22 at 1:44 pm to
quote:

This recession will be a whole lot worse than the 2008 one huh?


It already is. We have never seen inflation like we are seeing now in this country.
Posted by GetBackToWork
Member since Dec 2007
6423 posts
Posted on 5/20/22 at 1:44 pm to
A weak economy helps reduce the wealth gap and cuts down on toxic emissions, comrades!

Posted by Darth_Vader
A galaxy far, far away
Member since Dec 2011
69230 posts
Posted on 5/20/22 at 1:45 pm to
quote:

How long before the White House refers to this as the Putin Plunge?


I don’t know if this is what they’ll name it, there’s always a chance they’ll try to blame it on Trump. But what is certain is Democrats will do as they’ve always done, namely they will blame someone else for the giant pile of shot they’ve put us in. And the Democrat propaganda apparatus that masquerades as media will parrot the approved party narrative. And their legions of radicalized sheepeople will follow along in lockstep like the feeble minded idiots they are.
Posted by member12
Bob's Country Bunker
Member since May 2008
32635 posts
Posted on 5/20/22 at 1:56 pm to
quote:

How long before the White House refers to this as the Putin Plunge?


There's no recession...the economy is just weird. If there was a recession, that would be a good thing.
Posted by Vlatket
Member since Oct 2016
7475 posts
Posted on 5/20/22 at 1:58 pm to
Lol wat? If a recession hits and demand drops how they hell are prices supposed increase? Most of these homebuyers nowadays have no business owning a home . As soon as a economic downturn starts those houses will be vacant. This market is saturated with retards who are flooding the market and inflating prices post covid knowing damn well majority can't sustain paying the mortgage, especially if a recession hit. Only this current generation is dumb enough to buy houses because it's the new cool thing to do.
Posted by WaWaWeeWa
Member since Oct 2015
15714 posts
Posted on 5/20/22 at 2:03 pm to
quote:

Adequate inventory is still years away. Home prices will more than likely stabilize before they would drastically dip.


Are you in real estate or something?

Your take is waaay too rosy.

Do you think people were saving a lot of money before the pandemic? People were already over extended and got used to cheap loans. Inflation hits two fold…. It increases the cost of good so people have less left over for a mortgage and to combat inflation interests rates have to rise which make mortgages more expensive.

I know you know this so it peculiar why you would think housing prices will continue to rise. I think you are in denial of what is looming in the distance.
Posted by Paul Allen
Montauk, NY
Member since Nov 2007
77254 posts
Posted on 5/20/22 at 2:07 pm to
quote:

are prices supposed increase?


Because inventory hasn’t caught up with the demand.

Again, they won’t increase like they have the last couple of years but it would be logical to expect 8-10% increase in prices, particularly in the top 10 major metro areas experiencing rapid growth.
Posted by Joshjrn
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2008
30025 posts
Posted on 5/20/22 at 2:08 pm to
quote:

Lol wat? If a recession hits and demand drops how they hell are prices supposed increase? Most of these homebuyers nowadays have no business owning a home . As soon as a economic downturn starts those houses will be vacant. This market is saturated with retards who are flooding the market and inflating prices post covid knowing damn well majority can't sustain paying the mortgage, especially if a recession hit. Only this current generation is dumb enough to buy houses because it's the new cool thing to do.


This is an impressively stupid take, which somehow became more bizarre with each sentence.
Posted by Paul Allen
Montauk, NY
Member since Nov 2007
77254 posts
Posted on 5/20/22 at 2:10 pm to
I’m not in real estate but I know what homes are going for in the top 10 hotter markets across the country.

It’s widely known that supply is still a good ways away from catching up to demand.

Home prices won’t exponentially increase like they have the past couple of years, but it wouldn’t be foolish to think in the hotter major markets that they would still see an 8-10% increase in their home value in 2022.
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