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re: Question for the Anti-O crowd
Posted on 11/15/16 at 9:46 am to Draconian Sanctions
Posted on 11/15/16 at 9:46 am to Draconian Sanctions
quote:
How many interim coaches get 6+ games though? Most of the time it's just 1 or 2 and they are simply playing out the string.
Here is a list:
LINK
You can add Dabo Swinney to that list who went 4-3. Interim coaches on that list minus the one and dones plus dabo have a 43.2% win percentage. Assuming O wins out, he will have an 80% win percentage. Winning as an interim coach is not easy.
1
Posted on 11/15/16 at 9:48 am to abellsujr
I would prefer Jimbo. I think Fedora has done a nice job at UNC (not really my favorite).
I keep seeing that O couldn't sustain over 5 or 6 years. Looking at what he did at Ole Miss, I can't argue. With that, if has has changed his approach to what he is doing now, I can see him being successful here. A good coach hires great assistants and lets them do their job.
What makes people think that an up and coming coach like Herman (almost 2 years as head coach) or Fleck can sustain a major program and the pressure that comes with it>
I keep seeing that O couldn't sustain over 5 or 6 years. Looking at what he did at Ole Miss, I can't argue. With that, if has has changed his approach to what he is doing now, I can see him being successful here. A good coach hires great assistants and lets them do their job.
What makes people think that an up and coming coach like Herman (almost 2 years as head coach) or Fleck can sustain a major program and the pressure that comes with it>
Posted on 11/15/16 at 10:03 am to glaucon
quote:
Here is a list:
LINK
Teams generally win and lose at roughly the same rate under their interim coaches that they did under the original coach. From your list:
2015 Miami:
Final record 8-5
Interim record 4-2
2013 USC
Final record 10-4
Helton 1-0
Orgeron 5-2
2015 USC
Final record 8-6
Helton 5-2
2011 Arizona
Final record 4-8
Kish 3-3
2014 Kansas
Final record 3-9
Bowen 1-7
2015 Illinois
Final record 5-7
Cubit 5-6
2015 Rutgers
Final record 4-8
Wilson 1-2
2015 South Carolina
Final record 3-9
Elliot 1-5
2011 tOSU (Tressel fired before season)
6-7
2015 Maryland
Final record 3-9
Locksley 1-5
Other examples from link had a single game.
quote:
Interim coaches on that list minus the one and dones plus dabo have a 43.2% win percentage. Assuming O wins out, he will have an 80% win percentage. Winning as an interim coach is not easy.
This is the dumbest possible way to think about the situation different interim coaches find themselves in. The best possible comparison is internal - compare how the team did before and after the firing.
The results I included above are better than your average winning percentage but still don't look at what types of opponents were beaten and lost to in each case. For example, the USC team Orgeron coached was good enough to beat an 11 win Fresno team in a bowl game without him - but not good enough under his leadership to beat two of the three good opponents they faced.
Posted on 11/15/16 at 10:08 am to glaucon
quote:
if you were Alleva and O came into his interview saying that he has secured Aranda to stay on and has an elite OC lined up to join his staff ala Kiffen/Riley/Kingsbury/Martin do you roll with that or take a chance on the field?
If Coach Oeaux has Aranda locked up "he won't and doesn't" and he hired Kiffin "don't think it is realistic" I would say - take the interim title off him give him a contract for 5 years at $3.5mil per year with a very small buyout "$1 mil" clause and let's see how this goes.
Posted on 11/15/16 at 10:11 am to glaucon
quote:
So anyone else you pick will be a roll of the dice versus more of a known quantity.
The backwards thinking just got real.
Posted on 11/15/16 at 10:17 am to glaucon
quote:This is what gets me about folks that want ED O. They basically have to have the perfect storm of retaining Aranda, then being able to nail down a stud OC. So basically, he has to have 2 elite coordnators from the get go?
I want O if he wins out, retains Aranda, and an elite OC lined up. If it is a choice just between Fisher and O, I would choose Fisher but it is not simply a binary choice.
This post was edited on 11/15/16 at 10:22 am
Posted on 11/15/16 at 10:23 am to molsusports
quote:
This is the dumbest possible way to think about the situation different interim coaches find themselves in. The best possible comparison is internal - compare how the team did before and after the firing.
The results I included above are better than your average winning percentage but still don't look at what types of opponents were beaten and lost to in each case. For example, the USC team Orgeron coached was good enough to beat an 11 win Fresno team in a bowl game without him - but not good enough under his leadership to beat two of the three good opponents they faced.
But did beat a top 5 Stanford team. Even judging based on this standard of performance for an interim, O is doing very well. He took over for coaches that went 3-2 and 2-2 respectively. He went 6-2 and is currently 4-1 with the potential to go 6-1.
Also, just a note on that list, OSU went 12-1 in 2010 and 13-0 in 2012. Winning games even with superior talent is hard. Pretending anyone would have succeeded and won as many games as O at USC and LSU as an interim is silly. Respect the accomplishment even if you don't want him to get the job.
Posted on 11/15/16 at 10:27 am to glaucon
quote:
I want O if he wins out, retains Aranda, and an elite OC lined up.
This is stupid logic. You dont hire a coach based on the coordinators.
Posted on 11/15/16 at 10:33 am to glaucon
quote:
But did beat a top 5 Stanford team. Even judging based on this standard of performance for an interim, O is doing very well. He took over for coaches that went 3-2 and 2-2 respectively. He went 6-2 and is currently 4-1 with the potential to go 6-1.
The team was 4-2 when Kiffin was fire but OK. Let's talk about the USC team he took over. For the year the team was 10-4. With him as the interim head coach they went 5-2. That is exactly the same winning percentage.
Under him they played three good teams: Stanford, UCLA, and Notre Dame. They won a close game against Stanford, lost at close game at Notre Dame, and were blown out at home by UCLA.
That's it. Not the worst performance ever. But not better than what the team looked like on the year. And not an improvement over what got the original head coach fired.
quote:
Pretending anyone would have succeeded and won as many games as O at USC and LSU as an interim is silly.
This is a silly argument. The discussion is not whether any coach or any person could have done that. The discussion is whether Orgeron has a resume adequate to get real consideration for a premiere college football job. The answer for that is no.
If you think the other thing is the issue you are having a different and irrelevant conversation with someone else.
Posted on 11/15/16 at 11:45 am to molsusports
quote:
The team was 4-2 when Kiffin was fire but OK.
Kiffen was fired after losing to Arizona State not after beating Arizona. So the team was 3-2, not 4-2. 6-2 is not the same as 3-2 in terms of win percentage. Not to mention, Kiffen had a really bad end of the season before when he closed out going 1-5 to close out the season. So, O went 6-2 with a team that had gone 4-7 in its last 11 games.
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