re: Crackpot ASOIAF Theories SPOILERS

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I think there is a decent chance that he is Mance

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But people - current NW members - know the name and I believe the face of Mance. Unless he's somehow hiding the true appearance of his face, I don't see it happening.

However, his actions in looking out for Jon certainly make it an interesting theory.

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This probably changes if Dayne yields to Ned. The only thing better than death defending Jon, for Dayne, would be an oath to protect him later in life IMO. Under this scenario, Dayne is still fulfilling his vow, defending the king. I think he comes up in the story, and maybe we have already seen him and don't know it. Dawn is a big deal to them, but what if Dayne had figured out that Dawn was Lightbringer via Rhaegar? Then wouldn't it make a little more sense for him to leave the sword to Jon? Under the assumption that Jon is TPTWP/AA?

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But still, as far as Dayne is concerned, Ned is there to get Lyanna and take her and her child back to King's Landing to marry Robert. Ned is known for being loyal and honorable, so I would assume that Ned, while knowing he'd insist that he'd make sure that Jon would go to the Wall and say his vows as soon as he was able to, would still turn him over to Robert. Robert would kill him or have Jaime Lannister do the dirty work for him.

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IF he isn't dead, think there is a decent chance that he is Mance. Given Mance's father like protection of Jon. Him traveling to the feast as a bard and watching Jon. His skill with a sword that he obviously got somewhere other than the wall. The wildling woman patching his cloak spurring him to leave the wall, hinting to a previous loyalty to his house. Not to mention that north is the only place he could go where people wouldn't know him as Arthur Dayne.

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Mance is very well accounted for. Plus I don't see how Jaime or Ned wouldn't recognize Dayne at the Feast in Winterfell.

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Mance is very well accounted for. Plus I don't see how Jaime or Ned wouldn't recognize Dayne at the Feast in Winterfell.

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I don't think it would matter if Ned did, considering this theory would involve Ned sending him to the wall. Jamie would have thought him dead for 16 years and he would be dressed as a Bard.

I think Ned's view changed drastically when he realized that Lyanna had fled of her own will and wasn't kidnapped. At the time of the battle at the ToJ, Ned and his knights were under the impression that Lyanna had been stolen away.

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If Mance was Dayne, I doubt he'd let Jon out of his sight once he got hold of him. He'd definitely personally mentor him.

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For al we know he is doing just that, he is currently serving Jon. Right now he is Jon's biggest ally in defending the wall and possibly reclaiming the North, if he decides to go that route.

Mance was a wildling child taken by the Night's Watch and raised as one of them. He then spent most of his adult life as a ranger for the watch.


At what point did and how would a Dornish adult assume the identity of a wildling who grew up amongst the Night Watch.

Yeah...there really isn't anyway to defend that theory.

wouldn't people like maester Aemon Targaryen call bull shite on the story then? It is clear both in the book and on the show that Aemon Targaryen is aware of Mance Rayder.

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wouldn't people like maester Aemon Targaryen call bull shite on the story then? It is clear both in the book and on the show that Aemon Targaryen is aware of Mance Rayder.

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You are assuming that Aemon doesn't know. Why would he ever have reason to oust the most famous knight in seven kingdoms, who was still fighting for his house by living another day and keeping watch over Rhaegar's son?

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The question would be was Aemon already blind when Mance came to the watch? Aemon is old as dirt and has been blind for some time and Robert's Rebellion was only 16 years prior.

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This too. And Mance wasn't at Castle Black. He may have never came in contact with Aemon.

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Aemon knew and was in on it

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FIFY

You never know lately. Which brings me to the next theory.


ZOMBIE AEMON

Even a blind man knows whether Mance arrived at the Wall as a child or a middle age man.

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Robert's Rebellion was only 16 years prior.

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good point, that means, Mance if Ser Arthur would have arrived to the Wall in the last 15 years, there would have been scores of the Night Watchers that would have known if Mance arrived as child 30 years prior.

Also others that took the black after Robert's Rebellion would have recoginzed a member of the Kings guard.