Favorite team:LSU 
Location:Los Angeles
Biography:From Monroe
Interests:Investing, all Louisiana sports, Tivos, GOP
Occupation:Investment manager
Number of Posts:169
Registered on:9/27/2005
Online Status:Not Online

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+1 on the haven't been slammed despite offering a completely opposite take to Russian's.
quote:

I take it you folks hang on to this guy's every word because he wrote a book about a black swan. What's the point of reading about a black swan if you can't see them coming anyway, much less spending part of your life writing about it. Sounds like an a-hole


Agreed he's a pompous arse, but his points regarding black swans seem to be way over your head. He tries to capitalize on mispricing of risk in a world dominated by models based on normal distributions. (Not that he's necessarily perfect at implementing his plans - he somehow didn't make money in the market panic after 9/11.)

As for his offering no solutions, google "Ten principles for a Black Swan proof world." You may need at FT.com subscription, but he lays out 10 policy prescriptions. They're very 30,000-foot type views, but still much better than what we've gotten thus far, in my opinion.

re: Gold Up $23.60 Today

Posted by Reauxhan on 11/25/09 at 1:02 pm to
quote:

I almost fell out of my chair laughing + kfizz's response in the other thread which boiled down to :"click the link, dope."


This all would be hysterical if it didn't require a new thread every day discussing where gold closed. Can those all be merged into one?

re: Credit card statement

Posted by Reauxhan on 11/25/09 at 12:58 pm to
One thing you could do to monitor this (since identity theft may not show up on your credit card statement for this particular card) is check your credit report regularly, it's free. Annualcreditreport.com lets you pick from the 3 main reporting agencies, so I run one every four months, and just rotate.

Some of those websites that are advertised on TV as free are not so, but this is the main one, and is free. I think it's like $10 if you want to see your actual credit score, as well.

I'd also advise you to be careful - Equifax on that site got tricky with me once as to how I entered my exact address (i.e. #6 or Apt 6 or Apt #6) and made me freak out thinking I had a security freeze on new credit accounts. So I wound up paying them for a report because I got paranoid, and it turned out they just don't have flexibility on how you enter the address. The other two were fine on that.

re: Exchange Traded Funds (ETF's)

Posted by Reauxhan on 11/25/09 at 12:41 pm to
quote:

Except for commodities ETF/fund offerings. There just aren't many out there to begin with and they usually have fairly hefty fees compared with other ETF's. However, the fees are usually in line with regular mutual funds, so I get some anyway b/c I want the exposure to that sector.


That said, investors should pay careful attention to the tax implications of non-stock ETFs (metals in particular). Unless that tax treatment has changed, I don't think you can claim the long term cap gains rate for positions held over a year.

re: More FHA insanity

Posted by Reauxhan on 11/20/09 at 5:19 pm to
quote:

Disregarded by who? Politicians? Dude is only the chair of one of the most prestigious economics departments in the world (while receiving degrees from two others), what could he possibly know. It's not like he produced one of the most oft-cited research papers on debt crises in recent memory. I reallyreallyreallyreally dislike politicians.


Politicians, yeah. Ridiculous.

re: More FHA insanity

Posted by Reauxhan on 11/20/09 at 1:25 pm to
This is so absurd, enough to make anyone's blood boil.

Is there any instance in recorded history of a country getting out of a credit bubble by incentivizing its citizens to take on MORE debt?

For the life of me I can't comprehend why folks like Ken Rogoff, who studied these episodes back to 14th century England, get completely disregarded.

BTW, Jersey Tiger - I seem to recall your discussing housing in Kirkland, WA at one point. I can't find the thread but where in Kirkland were you looking? I used to own a house near 85th St and 124th Ave, about a mile north of that intersection. Bought in 04, sold in mid-08, wound up being quite fortunate timing.

re: More good news for Funroe.

Posted by Reauxhan on 11/19/09 at 5:47 pm to
quote:

The thing about the last four is that most of these jobs will have benefits which will be nice revenue streams for doctors and hospitals.


Sweet...as someone whose parents are both doctors living in Monroe, I approve of that message!
quote:

How can these no-good mutha f'ckers lie like this with a straight f'ing face?


I guess they could just use GDP growth, since it was falling off a cliff in the 4th quarter of last year, and was positive in 3Q.

But all told, making that comparison...well, it's kinda like Obama's Special Olympics joke. I'll leave it at that.

+1000000 for getting Geithner the hell out. He is in way over his head.
quote:

Honestly, I think "Liar's Poker" is entertaining and good but someone who doesn't understand the securities industry will get very wrong ideas from it. The book is written in a way that makes everyone involved seem like the caricature of a Wall Street rich cigar smoker who is having a blast at the public's expense. It's actually a great deal more complicated but you have to dig a little to see that.


Point noted, but at the same time, I think Lewis is one of the more accessible writers and does a solid job of chronicling the history there. I don't really think he'd need to take more out of it than that.

I get the feeling Tiger4 is looking for something outside the realm of normal dry history books on the topic, no?
Oh duh, I knew that. Thx

Edit: wrote that before I saw you posted the 90% number, meant regarding their not being originators. Thanks for digging up the stat. I did not know that number.
Just about everything I've read on the current crisis I've read on blogs I respect, or from economists I respect, so I haven't had time to read any of the books chronicling it to this point. That said, I hear good things about Gillian Tett's book "Fool's Gold." Another is "A Demon of Our Own Design" by Bookstaber, even though it was written ahead of last year's events.

I don't know if it qualifies as "intermediate" but I do know that the former doesn't delve much into the mechanics of CDOs and all that so as not to alienate the casual reader. You should hop over to a bookstore and flip through that one to see if it's up your alley.

I'm sure the others here can come up with other salient suggestions.
quote:

FWIW:

quote:

, Fannie Mae MBS held by third parties and other credit enhancements that we provide on mortgage assets, was $3.2 trillion as of June 30, 2009, or approximately 26.9% of total U.S. residential mortgage debt outstanding.



From teh Q.


I'm guessing the number you're thinking of that's much higher than that is the % of mortgage originations they comprise now?
If Armageddon lies in those pages, do us a favor and give us a little heads up, eh? I haven't bought any ammo yet, just gold.
quote:

t has a lot to do with central banking///fwiw


What are you looking to get out of it? I don't think the concepts of CENTRAL banking have really changed all that much since 1983. Bernanke has certainly opened up the playbook in the past year in pretty creative ways, and if you're looking for an understanding of those mechanisms then I doubt that book will touch on them much (his moves have been very much outside the realms of normal central banking activity).

If you're looking for an understanding of how commercial banking operates, then as foshizzle noted, you're not going to find all that much. If you must read an 80s book to get some perspective on it, you might as well read Liar's Poker by Michael Lewis (author of Moneyball and The Blind Side). At least that one's entertaining, and will give you a glimpse of the early days of the mortgage securitization market that played such a huge role in this current mess. I can dig around for actual book recs emerging from this crisis if you're looking for more specifics on what the lay of the land is right now. (For instance, Goldman and Morgan Stanley and I think American Express and a few others who survived last year wound up having to turn themselves into bank holding companies amid the crisis. Someone else here can probably explain the implications of that far better than I can, but it's "kind of a big deal.")
quote:

I think its much higher than that if you're talking about the GSEs+ GNM. I'm about to read through the Q.


You're going to read the entire Q?? God bless ya, dude.
Whew, exhaustive list there...I can't even imagine how I'd function if I had that much coming in on a daily basis!
What's on your RSS feed, if you don't mind my asking? I hear you on the information overload, I try to just keep it to naked capitalism, zero hedge, calculated risk, and occasionally Ritholtz' big picture blog. I check in on Mish from time to time as well, but I definitely don't have time to sit there and read every word all these guys write. Adding all that macro reading can really detract from the amount of time I need to put in on individual company analysis. But it's just so damn addictive.

I've read every Rosenberg piece over the past couple years, but sometimes get a week or two behind on it. He is realy, really good.
quote:

Corporate bond spreads have continued to tighten (even in the face of a massive supply boom, a record $1 trillion of new U.S. issuance has hit the market this year) and the “undervaluation gap” in this once-very-cheap sector has now closed given that it is de facto discounting 2.5% U.S. economic growth in the coming year (equities now are close to 5% — not far off from what they were pricing back at the October 2007 peak).


Ahh cool, thanks for adding that. Yeah, I'm a week behind on my Rosenberg pieces, juggling a bunch of earnings reports and whatnot..that's interesting that the equity mkt is now discounting 5% growth. Good Lord!
Oh, and to give an actual answer to your original question - my point with all those stock stats is that it might be unwise to believe the rally has been sustainable, and seems a decent likelihood of correcting back to the economic fundamentals at some point. Markets often diverge from underlying economic fundamentals for short-term bursts. Japan's had at least 4 different 50% rallies in the 20 year bear market that's left it 75% below the bubble peak.