DeSantis_2024

$157 now.

quote:

---

So backing BDR is a crapshoot.

---

Even if this is true, which I disagree with, it's a better bet than going with Trump in '24 who has no shot in the general and could cost Republicans the House and Senate again. I think DeSantis is probably 80%+ odds to beat Biden in '24 while Trump would be 25% odds at best. There is just no way that Trump is going to win back AZ, WI, or GA in '24, while DeSantis will be a strong competitor in those states.

I found some more discussion on it, and you don't enter into it as an 8 legged trade. You enter into the iron condor first (in the first minute or two of trading), then the double calendars about 2-3 minutes into the trading day when the liquidity starts to get better.

The problem is with the backtesting you use a $5/share stop loss on it, but that stop loss is on the entire position. I'm just not sure if it's even possible to put a stop loss on a trade like that, or if you'd have to do a stop loss on the iron condor and the double calendars separately. But there could be a situation where the iron condor is at a gain and the double calendar at a loss, so stand alone stop losses probably won't replicate what the combined stop loss is supposed to do.

In any event, I did some more tinkering with the delta on the double calendars and the iron condor:double calendar position ratio and got the win ratio up to 96.4% on the backtesting software, crazy. I just don't know how translatable that backtesting is into real life though, especially on a complex trade like this.

Wonder how much over budget and behind schedule this was?

Following Brobocop's idea, I got a Option Omega backtesting account and a Tastyworks account.

Have done the Iron condors the past two weeks but about breakeven there as they got busted 2 times this week. Not a huge fan of the risk/reward ratio there.

On the Option Omega forum, there is a user that combines three 0DTE iron condors with one double calendar spread (selling 1 DTE options and buying 2 DTE options), and these trades are only done on Mondays and Wednesdays. Backtested since the S&P started doing daily options earlier in 2022, this strategy has a ~90% win rate and the average winner has a higher $ amount ($853) than the average loser $ amount ($540) (compared to iron condors where the average loser is likely 3-4X higher than your average winner). He has a stop loss in place where if a $5 profit target is reached, the trade closes out if the P&L drops below $2.5. You exit the double calendar positions when the iron condor closes out, so every time the trade is opened and closed in the same day.

Very interesting strategy, as the iron condors profit on low volatility while the double calendar P&L maxes out profitability at the option strikes.

Probably tough to execute in real life though as it's an 8 legged trade. I don't think it's the kind of trade where you can just put it on in the morning and forget about it.

LINK

It's time for new conservative leadership in '24!

:usa: :bow:

Appreciate all the tough love I got in this thread. Wife and I had a good talk last night and I think if I put in more work on my end things will get better, not some unattainable "perfect" like my brain thinks they were in the "good ole days", but can be much better than they are now. :cheers:

It’s not just about sex, that’s just an easy example for a guy to talk about. Both of us were happier, more easy going, more in love with each other earlier in our marriage.

Upper 30's

quote:

---

Seek counseling

---

Maybe this is me being a p***y, but I've always thought marriage counseling is for those who can't just talk it out on their own and/or for marriages that are already toast.

quote:

---

If you were to ask her, what reasons would she give for why y’all are having trouble? Is there something should be looking within yourself for?

---

As far as reasons specific to me, she said that I don't laugh when she tries to be funny. I could probably be more forgiving and remember to compliment her when stuff is going right rather than just complain when something she's responsible for isn't being kept up like it should be.