PatriotAlum

WOW, I mean wow. I knew there wasn't much support for the SEC here but I didn't realize that there was so much SEC hatred. I remember 45 years ago when SEC teams were snubbed in the polls and an SEC team usually had to go undefeated to win a title - and even then it wasn't a guarantee. I remember Keith Jackson saying in 1992 how the SEC was the weakest conference, only to have a record number of SEC teams go bowling and all but one of them winning their bowl games. I've pulled for SEC teams since I started watching the games in 1970. The rest of the nation looked down on the SEC and that hasn't changed.

I have never seen a coach publicly declare than 1 game was his team's season. It's risky because if you lose, then it implies the season is a failure. I wonder what the mindset is of the players. Coach O also said he needs to recruit better which is true, but that also tells his players that they just aren't good enough. I respect honesty but I wonder how the team will respond. LSU should destroy Arkansas. LSU should end up with the best season in a number of years. But I suspect that instead of taking frustration out on Arkansas, that game may be closer than it should which could hurt LSU's ranking. Hopefully, I am wrong.

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Saban let’s Bama recruit nationally but it’s Saban Saban took a 3-8 LSU team and won a NC 4 years later, and he had us locked and loaded for an insane run 2005-2007. He probably would have won 1-2 more in that time period while still recruiting lights out. It’s Saban.

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It's both, more Saban than Alabama but Alabama is one of the biggest names in college ball all the way back to 1925 and allows coaches to recruit nationwide even before Saban. Louisiana produces more recruits than Alabama but Bama was recruiting throughout the south before the SEC existed. Defensive end Bear Bryant was recruited from Arkansas in the 1930's. People make fun of Bama claiming 17 championships, but the NCAA recognizes 15 of them, under 4 different coaches.

LINK

Bama was a national power from 1925 though 1945, then was down until Bryant took over in 1958 and was a national power again from 1960 into the early 1980's, then was good but not great through 1990 and was a national power again for about 6 years, then was up and down until Saban was hired in 2007. Saban could win at most schools but it was easier at Bama than most places. He could have won just as big at USC, Notre Dame, Ohio State, and Texas. He almost took a job at USC before coming to LSU but his agent talked him out of it. He also talked to Texas while at Bama but his wife talked him out of it.

For LSU to get in:

Bama beats Georgia. LSU owns head to head. LSU rank goes to 6th.

WV loses this weekend and then beats Oklahoma. Neither team has a defense. LSU goes to 5th.

Note Dame loses. It'd be a late season loss to an un-ranked team. LSU was ahead of Notre Dame prior to the Bama game and Notre Dame would fare no better than LSU if they played Bama. The committee knows this. LSU goes to 4th.

Ohio State loses to MSU then beats Michigan. Both finish with 2 losses. This one is iffy. One would likely end up with a conference championship but Ohio States losses are worse than LSU's and LSU has the hardest SOS in the nation, current ranked 1st. LSU may or may not make it to 3rd.

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A well thought out and reasonable analysis. Congrats on your parents not being blood relatives. I knew there had to one of you amongst the Bama hordes.

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I would hope so. I've been a southern football fan since the 60's and as an electrical and computer engineer I've been paid to think, analyze and design for 35 years. I actually graduated from UAB and UAB is my #1 team. I'd forgotten that my profile had the Bama icon. I changed it to Bama when UAB disbanded our team. Now we're back and we figured out how to have great seasons - just play teams weaker than we are. Right now we only have 1 loss.

Okay, let me derail the topic from Saturday's game for a moment and talk about the SEC.

[/soapbox on]

Even though I went to UAB, I pull for the entire SEC. Bama is right after UAB, followed by LSU, Georgia, Tennessee... Auburn is last. I pull for when they play OOC games unless its UAB. Why am I an SEC fan when I didn't attend an SEC school? In my extensive professional travels around the nation during the 80's and 90's, I learned how people up north and on both coasts view southerners - ALL southerners except those living in central and southern Florida. Many are so ignorant that they still see the south as it was in the 1800's. The northerners and folks in the NE and west coast see us as ignorant, inbred rednecks. Thus I find it ironic and annoying when Bama fans call Tennessee fans hillbillies, how everyone not in Mississippi call folks in Mississippi rednecks, etc. On the west coast, you are a redneck if you live in the south, especially if you are from Georgia, Bama, Mississippi or Louisiana. Its that mentality that causes SEC fans to pull for their rivals when they play OOC opponents and chant the SEC chant. From what I've seen, most SEC fans carry the SEC torch. So those of you who don't pull for your SEC rivals when they play OOC, remember that if that OOC teams is up north or on a coast, then while they might respect your team, they probably have a very low opinion of your school and its fans.

[/soapbox off]

I can only guess three reasons reason's for Bama fans' logic.

(1) Most fans only watch games which their team plays although Bama fans probably watch Auburn games hoping Auburn would lose. Those folks probably based their sole judgement of LSU from the LSU-Auburn game. And seeing how Tennessee and Mississippi State also beat Auburn, those fans likely underestimate LSU.

(2) Of the Bama fans that are true football fans and keep up with all SEC teams, they know their QB has not played in the 4th quarters which implies that Bama could have scored at least 60 vs. Texas A&M and probably more because defenses are usually at their weakest when the most tired - in the fourth quarter.

(3) True football fans understand that football is a game of match-ups. Mississippi State does not have great team speed and their QB is more of a runner than a passer. State could not pass against LSU and threw 4 interceptions which was the key to LSU's victory. Otherwise, the teams were fairly even in yardage and first downs. But while LSU's secondary could cover State's receivers on deep ball, A&M's secondary could not. State won that game with the deep ball, passing for 384 yards. So why would this group think Bama will score 40+? I don't know that they do. The folks assuming that score are probably from group 1. But some who understand the game and stats may still think that because Bama's QB is much more accurate than Mississippi State's. He has not thrown an interception this year, although that streak will probably end Saturday.

I find this game difficult to predict. Here is what I think will happen:

DEFENSE
LSU will try to pressure Bama's QB a lot but will also show blitz and then back off hoping to confuse Bama's young QB into making a mistake or at least force him to check off and count on the noise to keep some of Bama's offense from hearing the correct play, especially their receivers. QB throws route A and receiver runs B is a guaranteed incomplete and perhaps a pick. The risk is, if the QB guesses a blitz correctly and executes, it could give up a big play.

OFFENSE
LSU will come out throwing the ball. If successful LSU will continue to throw the ball until Bama stops it. Then LSU will turn to the run and try to control the clock and shorten the game.

So what will happen? It depends on if Bama can rip of a few big plays early which could quieten the crowd and could even force LSU out of their game plan. If Bama can do that, they'll be the team that gets the most picks and win. This is the only scenario that I see Bama winning big.

If LSU's offense can move the ball on the ground, then good things can happen for the Tigers. The defense can blitz, blitz, blitz forcing Bama to go for big plays. Bama will make some of those and score. And sometimes they won't. But successful or not, Bama's offense won't be on the field very long and Bama's defense won't be rested. Once Bama's defense is tired out, LSU can control the clock, keep the ball away from Bama's offense, and dictate the game. That leads to a Tiger victory, although probably not a blow out.

The huge unknown is how will Bama's quarterback react to pressure and the noise where almost everyone in the stadium is against him. He can get the ball out quickly so the best bet is to confuse him into making mistakes and capitalize when he does. Georgia tried pressure on him in the national title game with mixed success. They'd sack him but then give up a big play. but Georgia wasn't really ready for him and had a game plan for Bama's other QB which is the opposite of Bama's starter.

A likely result is that all of the possibilities will happen to some degree. LSU will upset Bama in a tight game or Bama will win by a score or two but not in a blow out.

I think this is going to be a close game and I find it difficult to predict. Bama hasn't played a really good team. The best two teams they played were A&M who got hammered by Miss State and Missouri who lost to Kentucky. Their schedule has not prepared them for a brawl with a strong team. Historically, Saban teams don't take advantage of a bye week as well as most teams, although his teams take good advantage of the time between the SECCG and the bowl games.

This year, Bama's run attack has had trouble burning clock when they have the ball. They either score quick or punt. Either way, their defense doesn't get to rest. And with very few returning starters on D, their backups are less experienced than normal.

The keys to the game will be (1) how much better Bama's D perform compared to their earlier games and (2) how well LSU's offense avoid penalties. LSU may have more trouble overcoming offensive penalties and may have more trouble coming from behind. If Bama can score enough to quieten the crowd and force LSU to abandon the run then Bama wins. If LSU can keep it fairly close going into the 4th, then LSU wins.

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I think they actually let the ncaa rule it.

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There was an effort before the season began to get the NCAA to change the targeting rule to be more in line with the NFL version. This was because the way the NCAA version is, its too easy to get flagged for targeting while tackling a QB but the NCAA refused. They wanted the rule just like it is to get defenders to avoid contact with the head and neck areas of a so-called defenseless player. So I doubt the NCAA will make any changes, at least not before the end of the season. I remember when the targeting rule first came out. They wanted the refs to flag targeting if it COULD BE targeting. Then a review could reverse the ejection of the player if video evidence proved it wasn't targeting. But back then, the team flagged still got the 15 yard penalty even when the review had video evidence that it wasn't targeting. I think Targeting us the NCAA's pet rule.

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they would say chest if they meant chest. The chest is not the head or neck area.

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White's face mask did hit the QB's helmet. The NCAA is trying to stop all contact against a passing QB's neck and head areas.

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wasn't really forcible contact as he didn't follow through. Wasn't even a particularly hard hit.

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This is why the call should have been roughing the QB with a 15 yard penalty but without disqualifying White. The problem is, what is the definition of forceful? It is subjective. White was running and that is enough for some to call it forceful. But he didn't launch himself at the QB so I would agree with you.

"Note the rule says contact with "the crown" of the helmet."

You need to read the full rule. Leading with the crown is always targeting. But against a helpless player, almost any hit in the neck or head area can be called as targeting and that makes the rule crazy.

From the website you linked (when hitting a helpless player):

"Leading with helmet, shoulder, forearm, fist, hand or elbow to attack with forcible contact at the head or neck area"

Was the QB helpless? That is spelled out in the rule.


"Note 2: Defenseless player (Rule 2-27-14):
A player in the act of or just after throwing a pass."

These two items is how the ref was able to throw the flag for targeting. That rule needs to be rewritten. Folks say it was a bad call but it really is a bad, poorly written rule. The game is slowly approaching flag football.