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re: Tesla.....Tech vs Financial Realities.....Discuss The Investment Thesis
Posted on 2/23/17 at 1:03 pm to dabigfella
Posted on 2/23/17 at 1:03 pm to dabigfella
quote:
So my question is, is tesla tech that far ahead that it commands the type of premium people are paying for the stock?
Not yet, but it's getting close.
If Tesla can ever produce a car that has all the bells and whistles consumers want, at least ~250-300hp, can go for at least 300-400 miles on a single charge, can be recharged within 30-60 minutes and do it all for under $30k without needing to spend $1k on new batteries every couple of years, they'll change the world (at least first world countries). They're not there yet though.
1
Posted on 2/23/17 at 1:10 pm to Bard
quote:
at least ~250-300hp
Model 3 will be in this ballpark
quote:
can go for at least 300-400 miles on a single charge
still at least a few years off
quote:
can be recharged within 30-60 minutes
This is about how long it takes now at their superchargers.
quote:
do it all for under $30k
about 5 years away.
quote:
without needing to spend $1k on new batteries every couple of years
I believe that currently the batteries only need to be replaced after 8-10 years of normal use.
Also: Tesla Is Burning Through Cash
This post was edited on 2/23/17 at 1:12 pm
Posted on 2/23/17 at 1:32 pm to colorchangintiger
The cash burn isn't a worry to me look at the balance sheets of gm and Ford. Ford has way more debt and people consider that a value buy
Posted on 2/24/17 at 8:51 pm to dabigfella
quote:
dabigfella
quote:
I've tried to discuss this with the OT and the money board and all I get is just a ton of its going bankrupt, the debts astronomical, electric cars are silly, etc. I want to discuss the realities of what tesla has, what competitors have, and whether you think its a worthwhile investment at this stage.
Obviously at $33b the market cap is up there for a company with continued losses,dilution, and now a ton of new debt coming from solar city and their losses. I obviously am intrigued by what tesla has because I believe margins on an electric car will be significantly higher than those of an internal combustion engine maker like ford or gm. I also am a big believer in solar panels, as I bought a system from solar city for just under $20k and my electricity bill went down almost 70%. The law in texas doesnt allow you to replace 100% of your electric needs with solar, up to 80% is allowed, but due to constraints of my roof, 70% or so was achievable.
The company is obviously building this gigafactory that will be the biggest building on earth when done, its still around 15% done. Bears say its nothing special, sure doesnt seem that way from watching vids and reading about it. The model 3 seems revolutionary in that 400k+ were reserved 2 years before its release, bears again say it wont come out on time and will cost well north of $35k advertised price. The company is led by obviously one of the greatest visionaries of our time in Elon Musk, he's overpromised alot, but always deliver albeit late more often than not. The master plan 1 sounded nuts, but he got through it, and now master plan 2 sounds crazy, and financially he doesnt have the money at tesla to get there today.
So my question is, is tesla tech that far ahead that it commands the type of premium people are paying for the stock? I mean can ford,gm,mercedes,etc come in and do the same stuff and if so, why haven't they to the scale tesla is doing it? Are all these companies really going to sit around and let one company scale electric cars the next few years while they catch up. Tesla is worth $33B and Ford is worth $48B, what do you see tesla becoming, Ive read the gamut from bankrupt POS to worlds largest company that goes well beyond cars into energy becoming a modern day Exxon so to speak.
The financials look awful, the story looks amazing, the new solar city bonds issued yesterday with elon musk buying a ton at 6.5% interest have raised tons of eyebrows on the basis the yield is so high due to risk + elon and his family buying a ton of them. I've read some bull thesis on the stock having 20x in it if all goes and obviously the near future involves more dilution and raising of capital. To me money is so cheap today that I dont mind all the borrowing tesla is doing, the demand is there but my fear is access to capital is running out with these new 6.5% solar bonds.
So thank you for taking time to read this long question and Id love to hear responses from the Tech guys on what this thing is today and what you think it can be in the future.
This is a huge shift in your opinion. You have stated you are a total non believer in Tesla in the past on the Money Board. You also are involved in gas station investments and when I questioned you, you tried to say that had nothing to do with your negativity re: electric cars or Tesla.
Realllllllly strange 180 by you...
ETA: Didn't realize this was an old thread. Guys this dude owns gas stations and has TRASHED Tesla and Musk and the very concept of EV's in the past there. It's obviously because they have the potential to turn gas stations into the next Blackberry Phones.
Notice he also ignores the massive cash cow that SpaceX is. They'll already be 40-60% cheaper than any other competitor in terms of launching payloads into space, and once they start totally reusing everything, they'll cut even further into their competitors, and eat up the entire market, generating STAGGERING sums of money.
SpaceX will bankroll Tesla and Solar City and not even yawn...He can't and won't discuss that aspect of Musk's businesses because it confirms that he will soon be able to run Tesla and GigFactory and Solar City at a loss like Bezos did with Amazon for years because SpaceX will float them for decades.
But anyone who researches how badly SpaceX is outclassing everyone in the space payload business would realize that this is the case. He knows...and he can't really respond to that aspect of the discussion.
Because his angle is to trash Tesla and EV's in reality.
This post was edited on 2/24/17 at 9:06 pm
Posted on 2/25/17 at 1:02 am to GFunk
First off ignoramus, financially speaking Tesla is an utter disaster and thats why I bashed it. What opened my eyes to tesla is the other things that give it a massive edge. After doing lots of homework on the matter I didn't realize the ability tesla had to develop batteries at lower costs than anyone else. This is evidence by the deal GM struck with LG to land batteries for the bolt. Tesla will be producing 35 GWH of battery at gigafactory 1 at potentially sub $100 KWH while GM at most can only do 3 GWH and that is bc its buying them from LG at $145 KWH. The reality is Tesla is driving down battery prices at an alarming rate and none of the other auto makers will be able to compete with them bc they dont have any gigafactories in the pipelines.
Mercedes,Audi,BMW nobody will be able to deliver the battery. See the problem is 99% of people think Tesla is an automaker, and even you couldn't understand the depth to which I see Tesla as a monopoly now. The problem with traditional auto companies is the model. You have dealers who make all the profit buying cars from the manufacturer and selling cars to profit from service,financing, and used car sales. Tesla with the BEV having almost no service has to make money in a different matter and thats on the sale of the car not the servicing. So in theory now with tesla not having dealers eating away at their margins and having their battery costs go down they will be able to profit more than anyone. To really understand tesla you have to step back and say well why is nobody else building BEV's like tesla and the answer is simply bc they have too much invested in the status quo and you cant make money with an electric car if you have to sell it to a dealer who then has to mark it up and then there is nothing to service under warranty.
The true genius of the business plan is that nobody is within probably 5+ years of being able to compete on a large scale. The autonomous cars and tesla mobility are cool in theory but im keeping my opinions tight on those.
People's opinions change, as for me, I think its funny you think Im about to go broke. I guess you never saw the pictures I posted before of my rolls royce and bentley. I do just fine currently and if god forbid someday gas stations went away, I dont know if you've noticed but most sit on multi acre hard corners which means they're prime real estate to be redeveloped into other things. At that point I'd have to figure something else out, but that time is not anywhere close so relax with the commentary bc you don't know my personal balance sheet but its alot stronger than you can imagine, believe me, just look in the credit card thread on the money board and see the card I posted the JP Morgan Reserve Card and go see the requirements to get one. I promise you couldn't get it. So quit rushing to judgements about me.
PS you're hilarious thinking a private company is going to bankroll a public company, where'd you study finance? That is absolutely not happening and they're 2 different entities.
Mercedes,Audi,BMW nobody will be able to deliver the battery. See the problem is 99% of people think Tesla is an automaker, and even you couldn't understand the depth to which I see Tesla as a monopoly now. The problem with traditional auto companies is the model. You have dealers who make all the profit buying cars from the manufacturer and selling cars to profit from service,financing, and used car sales. Tesla with the BEV having almost no service has to make money in a different matter and thats on the sale of the car not the servicing. So in theory now with tesla not having dealers eating away at their margins and having their battery costs go down they will be able to profit more than anyone. To really understand tesla you have to step back and say well why is nobody else building BEV's like tesla and the answer is simply bc they have too much invested in the status quo and you cant make money with an electric car if you have to sell it to a dealer who then has to mark it up and then there is nothing to service under warranty.
The true genius of the business plan is that nobody is within probably 5+ years of being able to compete on a large scale. The autonomous cars and tesla mobility are cool in theory but im keeping my opinions tight on those.
People's opinions change, as for me, I think its funny you think Im about to go broke. I guess you never saw the pictures I posted before of my rolls royce and bentley. I do just fine currently and if god forbid someday gas stations went away, I dont know if you've noticed but most sit on multi acre hard corners which means they're prime real estate to be redeveloped into other things. At that point I'd have to figure something else out, but that time is not anywhere close so relax with the commentary bc you don't know my personal balance sheet but its alot stronger than you can imagine, believe me, just look in the credit card thread on the money board and see the card I posted the JP Morgan Reserve Card and go see the requirements to get one. I promise you couldn't get it. So quit rushing to judgements about me.
PS you're hilarious thinking a private company is going to bankroll a public company, where'd you study finance? That is absolutely not happening and they're 2 different entities.
This post was edited on 2/25/17 at 1:08 am
Posted on 2/25/17 at 10:33 am to dabigfella
To clarify I've never-not ever-said you're about to go broke, or anything of the sort. I said you have business interest that can be severely disrupted by the advent of EV's. I'm familiar with the margins on selling petrol at gas stations. I also know that anyone should and would be wary and concerned with potential disruptions in their business or livelihoods. You are no different than a local sporting goods store owner or grocer when an Academy or Big Box moves in. Just a different industry and potential disruptor.
But I'll repeat again: I'm not saying ANYTHING about your financial wherewithal or your wealth, business acumen, etc.
What I have said is that your entire take on EV's is fueled by the fact that you are wary they can disrupt your business, and that fuel may very well be bias.
I also notice-once again-you don't mention SpaceX. Yet again.
But I'll repeat again: I'm not saying ANYTHING about your financial wherewithal or your wealth, business acumen, etc.
What I have said is that your entire take on EV's is fueled by the fact that you are wary they can disrupt your business, and that fuel may very well be bias.
I also notice-once again-you don't mention SpaceX. Yet again.
Posted on 2/25/17 at 11:25 am to GFunk
Does anyone know the % of investors that are retail vs institutional?
Posted on 2/25/17 at 12:10 pm to GFunk
Elon's going to 3D print batteries, much like he does his rocket engines, and that's where his fortunes will be won or loss (people having back up power sources for their homes and in EVs). I've spent the day crawling all over a rocket launch stand and I don't see why you think that's such a great business. It's a need right now that we have astronauts up on the space station, but that could all go away very easily.
I don't see low earth orbit as something that'll be making the Rockefellers of the future. 3D printing on a mass scale...pretty good bet. No retooling like current manufacturing processes. Just change the program and materials and you have the next gen product.
I don't see low earth orbit as something that'll be making the Rockefellers of the future. 3D printing on a mass scale...pretty good bet. No retooling like current manufacturing processes. Just change the program and materials and you have the next gen product.
This post was edited on 2/25/17 at 12:14 pm
Posted on 2/25/17 at 12:26 pm to Gaston
GOOG invested based on a $10Bln valuation two years ago. Prior to the two busiest years in their history in terms of launching payloads into space. Their end game is to leverage SpaceX to beam internet everywhere.
SpaceX is so inexpensive it will open the market to LOE payloads and simultaneously corner the existing market while making massive margins in the process (they're obscene now with all of the other players who spend and charge much, much more).
SpaceX is a gold mine. I'm not a tech investor, but researching what their costs are versus their competitors is jaw dropping. Even when they started trying to compete and lower costal, the current players can't come close to touching what Musk is doing right now...and he's still not done.
SpaceX is so inexpensive it will open the market to LOE payloads and simultaneously corner the existing market while making massive margins in the process (they're obscene now with all of the other players who spend and charge much, much more).
SpaceX is a gold mine. I'm not a tech investor, but researching what their costs are versus their competitors is jaw dropping. Even when they started trying to compete and lower costal, the current players can't come close to touching what Musk is doing right now...and he's still not done.
Posted on 2/25/17 at 3:08 pm to GFunk
Do you think if Orbital/Aerojet quits competing for NASA launch contracts and SpaceX is making a ton of money off of each launch NASA will still pay that much per launch...knowing that the government gave Elon a $5 billion grant...
No. Although I could see cost plus contracts of old...if there are capabilities they think Elon can develop.
I'm just saying that market is shaky. Being the world leader of 3D printing is solid though...whether batteries are the thing that puts him over the top or complex machinery like a rocket engine does, he's got it going.
No. Although I could see cost plus contracts of old...if there are capabilities they think Elon can develop.
I'm just saying that market is shaky. Being the world leader of 3D printing is solid though...whether batteries are the thing that puts him over the top or complex machinery like a rocket engine does, he's got it going.
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