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re: what Portugal did was one of the dumbest things i have ever saw

Posted on 6/28/12 at 10:09 am to
Posted by Waffle House
NYC
Member since Aug 2008
3984 posts
Posted on 6/28/12 at 10:09 am to
That is like batting your best hitter 8th in the lineup and hoping it comes down to needing a big hit from the bottom of the order.

You want you best to have the opportunity to take a PK 100% of the time. The only way to guarantee that is to have them go in spots 1-3.

ETA: A better analogy would be saving your ace pitcher for game 3 of a best of 3 series. Sure you may look like a genius every so often, but it isn't a sound strategy.
This post was edited on 6/28/12 at 10:13 am
Posted by glassman
Next to the beer taps at Finn's
Member since Oct 2008
117865 posts
Posted on 6/28/12 at 10:10 am to
quote:

AzoresTiger1


Welcome to the Board.

Club affiliation?
Posted by Friend of OBUDan
Member since Dec 2008
9963 posts
Posted on 6/28/12 at 10:37 am to
Nah, it's more like batting your best hitter fourth, which a lot of managers do.
Posted by AzoresTiger1
Member since Jun 2012
5 posts
Posted on 6/28/12 at 10:45 am to
Thanks glassman, great to finally join. Huge supporter of Chelsea, but also a fan of Madrid & Porto.
Posted by Waffle House
NYC
Member since Aug 2008
3984 posts
Posted on 6/28/12 at 11:06 am to
quote:

Nah, it's more like batting your best hitter fourth, which a lot of managers do.


The % of teams in WC shootouts that have made it to the 5th shooter is 59%.

The % of teams in UEFA shootouts that have made it to the 5th shooter is 66%.

The % of teams in COPA America shootouts that have made it to the 5th shooter is 58%.

The success rate across the board for 5th kicks in PKs, regardless of skill level of player taking them, is 80%.

I don't think I would take the ~63% chance that my best player would get to contribute to whether my team advanced. I would 100% make sure he had a chance to shoot.
Posted by Dandy Lion
Member since Feb 2010
51400 posts
Posted on 6/28/12 at 11:07 am to
quote:

I don't think I would take the ~63% chance that my best player would get to contribute to whether my team advanced. I would 100% make sure he had a chance to shoot.

Exactamente.
Posted by etm512
Mandeville, LA
Member since Aug 2005
20998 posts
Posted on 6/28/12 at 11:19 am to
quote:

I would 100% make sure he had a chance to shoot.


This is the only correct way to think
Posted by Friend of OBUDan
Member since Dec 2008
9963 posts
Posted on 6/28/12 at 11:32 am to
Maybe so, but again, Cesc is Spain's best PK taker (wasn't on the pitch in the 90th min vs France) and no one cares.

This post was edited on 6/28/12 at 11:38 am
Posted by RayFinkleTTU
Orlando's
Member since Jul 2009
5755 posts
Posted on 6/28/12 at 11:45 am to
quote:

Porto


Praise God.

Welcome to board from the only Porto supporter on here
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