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re: Why would China not be able to take down Taiwan easily?
Posted on 3/16/26 at 11:24 am to WKUHilltopper
Posted on 3/16/26 at 11:24 am to WKUHilltopper
quote:
Just looking at it with no knowledge I would think China could take Taiwan fairly easily. I’m sure China has plenary of spies already in Taiwan, they are way larger in population and technology (I think), they are trying to rival us as the supreme superpower…
Simply put, this is not how China operates. They play a game in a timeframe of centuries, where most countries operate from election to election.
They would prefer to slowly manipulate Taiwan politically and make life generally difficult for them economically without taking that step toward military aggression that would trigger engagement from an allied force. One sure fire way of getting the west to align would be from a response to an aggressive act.
As others have mentioned, China has made significant inroads to Europe, South America and Canada economically. An aggressive act would effectively piss all of that away in a matter of minutes.
Could they make quick work of Taiwan, likely they could. They have the pure manpower to do so. But they would almost instantly become an isolated nation and would destroy their own economy in the process.
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Posted on 3/16/26 at 11:31 am to WKUHilltopper
I've posted about this exact subject multiple times. There are several good articles put out by think tanks showing how and why it would be extremely difficult. The straight is extremely rough waters and is only crossable by a large naval force for like two 4 week periods a year so Taiwan would know when it was coming from the build up. They both have huge missile forces that would be bombarding each other the entire time. Taiwan has a ton of spies in China as China does them so sabotage is a huge issue. The straight would be heavily mined as soon as they knew the invasion was coming. A lot of China's invasion force would be commercial vessels outfitted to carry men and supplies so your gonna have much higher causality rate off that alone. Taiwan's air force is as advanced if not more advanced than China's although it is much smaller. They also have bases dug throughout the mountains so their air force and military will be somewhat protected from the air. There are only a few possible landing zones along the coast and they are and will be heavily defended and barricaded. They also put chemical plants right next to those possible landing zones so any bombardment turns the place into a chemical nightmare. They have miles and miles of tunnels to move men and supplies into the different areas while being protected. They have a large well trained and well supplied army with like 1 million reserves ready to be called up. Their population is trained since birth on what to do and will fight for a long long time. Urban areas with have blockades and cables run from building to building to catch helicopters and pester mechanized forces. They have a ton of mechanized forces themselves. Most experts say China has maybe close to or a little under a month to conquer the island before the expected response for of United States/Japan/Korea/Philippians/Australia shows up and then its over. Anybody saying it would be quick work or easy simply don't have a clue about the topic.
This post was edited on 3/17/26 at 10:30 am
Posted on 3/16/26 at 11:46 am to Penrod
quote:
That’s because Europe desperately needs Russian oil. In the Chinese example THEY would be the ones needing the oil. The only countries desperate to sell oil to China couldn’t deliver it without going through sea lanes that America would control.
You don't think Europe needs China for manufacturing and technology?
Again.... international policing is dead.
All deterrence begins and ends with US influence. If we are not at our strongest, we won't be able to sway anything.
I think we overestimate the "strength" of Taiwan.
169k active military personnel.
They have US weapons and technology. But i don't equate that as US effectiveness.
Taiwan has a ton of geographical advantages. The window for assault is not very forgiving.
But a 21st century attack (cyber and kinetic knocking telecoms, power, water, infrastructure) with 3000 aircraft, 350 warships, 2M active duty personnel, and 1000s of "civilian" vessels is not a battle that Taiwan wants to test.
The best goal for the US is to have strength and deterrence through 2028. And then expect Chinese microprocessor technology to catch Taiwan's current yield so that military solutions are no longer pressing.
China won't give up on Taiwan. But the means should shift to political and economic and not kinetic.
Posted on 3/16/26 at 12:02 pm to WKUHilltopper
It is the same equivalent to Iran and Oil.
The AI chips manufactured by Taiwan are used all over the world. These plants would not survive an attack by China. You throw a bag of dust into these things and they are ruined..Trillions of dollars lost.
The impact on chips would cripple the global economy, just like high oil prices. Geopolitical chess.
The AI chips manufactured by Taiwan are used all over the world. These plants would not survive an attack by China. You throw a bag of dust into these things and they are ruined..Trillions of dollars lost.
The impact on chips would cripple the global economy, just like high oil prices. Geopolitical chess.
Posted on 3/16/26 at 12:30 pm to meansonny
China will not send their entire fleet to test US and Taiwan readiness. If you watch anything that happens military wise with China, you’ll understand their logistical support is a nightmare.
They sent a force to Mongolia and brought them back because the troops were not prepared to operate there. Recent operations ended with a purge of military officers.
China knows their entire manufacturing sector is along one river, waiting for the Three Gorges Dam to break. Wuhan’s will be up to 20 feet under water and millions will drown.
They sent a force to Mongolia and brought them back because the troops were not prepared to operate there. Recent operations ended with a purge of military officers.
China knows their entire manufacturing sector is along one river, waiting for the Three Gorges Dam to break. Wuhan’s will be up to 20 feet under water and millions will drown.
Posted on 3/16/26 at 12:56 pm to meansonny
quote:
You don't think Europe needs China for manufacturing and technology?
Again.... international policing is dead.
All deterrence begins and ends with US influence.
You’re just saying what I was saying. The US will prevent any oil from the Americas or the Middle East from reaching China. I’ll add that Europe would cut China off from everything they could either do without or source elsewhere. China would wither.
Posted on 3/16/26 at 1:07 pm to bluedragon
quote:
China will not send their entire fleet to test US and Taiwan readiness.
They have the world's largest navy (and that doesn't count the communist citizenry ships that would be deployed).
The point is that they do not need to send their entire navy. The potential is to invade and hold an island the size of Maryland.
It wouldn't be easy to take.
But it wouldn't be easy to defend against the size of an invasion either.
Our best goal is to keep invasion plans (which are already drawn up by Xi Jinping) off the table for March 2027. And then to continue to repeat that for 2028 (an election year when no US politician would want to commit troops).
Posted on 3/16/26 at 1:10 pm to bluedragon
quote:
Recent operations ended with a purge of military officers.
This is not uncommon in China.
Xi Jinping's father had the same thing happen in his military career.
In addition to great defensive military terrain for Taiwan, China hasn't had leadership with active military experience. There are a ton of negatives for China.
But that has not deterred them from planning for a 2027 invasion for years.
Posted on 3/16/26 at 1:18 pm to WKUHilltopper
Of China moves on Taiwan, the disruption in international trade would harm them more than anyone else.
I understand that America would suffer also, but not near as much as China.
They would be starved for energy amd food..... the resulting chaos would severely cripple their economy and cause massive civil unrest.
I understand that America would suffer also, but not near as much as China.
They would be starved for energy amd food..... the resulting chaos would severely cripple their economy and cause massive civil unrest.
Posted on 3/16/26 at 1:38 pm to Boodis Man
quote:
They would take Taiwan easily like we did to Venezuela.
It would look a lot more like Iran vs. USA. And that is only if we didn't step to help.
Posted on 3/16/26 at 1:45 pm to lake chuck fan
and we would drive 08 Civics forever
Posted on 3/16/26 at 1:49 pm to WKUHilltopper
Taiwan is actually one and a half times bigger than Israel. Israel has been simultaneously attacked by Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, and Jordan with financing backed up by Saudi Arabia numerous times. Each time their adversaries were beaten so badly their own mothers disowned them. Last time the entire Egyptian army was made to walk back to Egypt in their underwear without any armaments. The entire army was abandoned in the desert.
Its not the size of the nation that matters.
Its not the size of the nation that matters.
Posted on 3/16/26 at 3:14 pm to EvrybodysAllAmerican
quote:
Honestly, i dont know why they didnt try it when Joe Potato was in office. that was their window of opportunity.
They weren't ready.
Even Xi Jinping's timeline isn't/wasn't supposed to be until 2027. And the military leaders he recently removed/who are being investigated thought that 2035 was the quickest realistic timeline to being ready.
Posted on 3/16/26 at 4:46 pm to meansonny
You don’t get it. They have a deep water Navy and are incapable of amphibious landings. What do plan to do then? Shoot every plane delivering supplies to the island? World War Three for a nation that not been shot at in decades.
Posted on 3/16/26 at 8:54 pm to bluedragon
quote:
You don’t get it. They have a deep water Navy and are incapable of amphibious landings
They literally have an amphibious assault vessels. Water Bridge Ships come in 3 parts. Deep water. Mid depth. And shallow. They connect to one another and to the shore via bridges. Once setup, they will permit unbelievably fast deployment on shore.
They will require a level of air cover to deploy. But the speed of deployment will be better than any sea to land invasion in history (so cover does not need to be permanent).
Posted on 3/16/26 at 9:06 pm to No Colors
Also you have the largest navy on the planet and the 5th largest navy (but probably second largest blue water navy - Japan) poised to defend Taiwan and have a turkey shoot as the Chinese attempt a successful amphibious assault (something they have never done). You have the US Marine Corps completely reorganizing around the task of containing China and preventing a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. South Korea, Japan, the US and the Philippines would all oppose such an assault. This is not like China walking across an undefended land border to take Tibet.
Posted on 3/16/26 at 9:24 pm to OGtigerfan87
Thank you. Thats the type of response I was looking for
Posted on 3/18/26 at 10:23 am to WKUHilltopper
No problem
This post was edited on 3/18/26 at 10:23 am
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