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re: What is the income range for "middle class" per the board?
Posted on 9/27/17 at 3:41 pm to NYNolaguy1
Posted on 9/27/17 at 3:41 pm to NYNolaguy1
quote:
Now you're just ignoring me.
Nope. I’m showing you can’t do simple analysis. If person (A) and person (B) both live in existing homes. They buy each other’s house... the average home size does not change.
The only way the average size increases is if there is a new home larger than the average of (A) & (B). (Well, there’s add-one, but that’s not a huge part of new inventory)
quote:they are the only ones that change the average size over time.
Do you think that new construction homes are the only ones on the market?
1
Posted on 9/27/17 at 3:43 pm to ShortyRob
quote:
What drove that?
I am stipulating its driven by baby boomers staying in their older smaller homes.
quote:
Are we talking about a significant group of people? Cause, if we're talking about a significant group of people, then you have one very odd market where people who CAN sell a thing can see a huge market for that thing.....and don't provide it.
Not really. Consider that even the surrounding vicinity of NYC (suburbia) is almost completely devoid of empty buildable land. Its very expensive to completely demo an old structure and rebuild smaller, and given the value of most NYC real estate, it pays more dollar for dollar more to build bigger and higher.
Now that puts a squeeze on the supply of existing home prices, and drives up demand. Combine that with baby boomers staying their smaller homes longer and you have an issue with existing homes being bigger than what the average millenial can afford.
Posted on 9/27/17 at 3:43 pm to Tigerdev
quote:And I'm gathering you are younger than me which goes to my point.
True enough. I hate the suburbs so i never enter it into my calculus.
Part of why smaller homes are disappearing from the burbs is because the former market for smaller homes isn't interested in the burbs.
Posted on 9/27/17 at 3:44 pm to ShortyRob
Never understood suburban hate.
Posted on 9/27/17 at 3:45 pm to Taxing Authority
quote:
Nope. I’m showing you can’t do simple analysis. If person (A) and person (B) both live in existing homes. They buy each other’s house... the average home size does not change.
And if neither (baby boomer) sell their house their size is not relevant to whats on the current market... which is my entire point.
Posted on 9/27/17 at 3:45 pm to ShortyRob
Theres no doubt in you are older than me. You have the sort of ornery attitude that only comes with age.
Posted on 9/27/17 at 3:45 pm to NYNolaguy1
quote:
How are homebuyers supposed to find these homes to reduce the amount of amenities and lower their cost of living?
I feel like we’ve come full circle. I’ve asked multiple times—why haven’t homebuilders been building homes to fill that demand? HINT: there is no demand. Posted on 9/27/17 at 3:46 pm to NYNolaguy1
quote:Hardly. Baby boomers are driving the bigger bigger bigger market.
I am stipulating its driven by baby boomers staying in their older smaller homes.
Who always used to buy smaller burb homes?
Who, as a group, has demonstrated FAR less interest in the burbs?
Who, as a group, gets married at a FAR lower rate now?
Who, as a group, tends to show much greater preference for apartments in the city........staying with parents until they can afford a BIGGER home and on and on?
When you realize that the answers to each question above are the same..........
Posted on 9/27/17 at 3:46 pm to Taxing Authority
States opinion. Brands it as fact. Inserts emoji.
Posted on 9/27/17 at 3:48 pm to NYNolaguy1
quote:This makes no sense. People staying in their existing homes does not effect the average home size.
I am stipulating its driven by baby boomers staying in their older smaller homes
Posted on 9/27/17 at 3:48 pm to Taxing Authority
quote:DING DING DING
I feel like we’ve come full circle. I’ve asked multiple times—why haven’t homebuilders been building homes to fill that demand? HINT: there is no demand.
Sure, there are a few holdouts but not an economically significant one.
If there were, the homes would be getting built. It's really just that simple.
As to their being no buildable land.
Well, now we're down to individual anecdote. I mean, sure. If a person who can only earn X chooses for their own reasons, to move where things cost X + Y.......then they will find they can't afford X + Y.
But that isn't an economic discussion AND, it's not even a housing cost discussion. It's a life choices discussion.
Posted on 9/27/17 at 3:50 pm to Centinel
40K to 90K
+20% if you are in Alaska, California, NYC, Hawaii.
+20% if you are in Alaska, California, NYC, Hawaii.
This post was edited on 9/27/17 at 3:51 pm
Posted on 9/27/17 at 3:51 pm to Taxing Authority
quote:Yeah.
This makes no sense. People staying in their existing homes does not effect the average home size.
Somehow, he just described a housing market where.
1. Older people are hoarding the smaller homes
but
2. Home sizes are growing
which means
3. The new homes driving up average size are being bought by younger people
who really can't afford them and want
4. Smaller homes.
Um. No.
Posted on 9/27/17 at 3:51 pm to NYNolaguy1
quote:
am stipulating its driven by baby boomers staying in their older smaller homes.
What in the hell?
Those houses are available, in less desirable neighborhoods. Ill bet the demand for them is low.
Many were torn down for more upscale (and cheaply built) housing.
New housing built today will have a shorter life cycle
Posted on 9/27/17 at 3:53 pm to NYNolaguy1
quote:EXCTLY. So new homes built by builders even more accurately reflects market demand. And for 40 years... that demand has been larger houses.
And if neither (baby boomer) sell their house their size is not relevant to whats on the current market...
And further..the “baby boomer” argument is more of a post-2008 trend. But we aren’t comparing that time frame.
quote:
which is my entire point.
you sure about that? Posted on 9/27/17 at 3:53 pm to RogerTheShrubber
Its a lifestyle issue. I like neighborhoods with character where i can walk places and be part of the community. I dont like "drive only" neighborhoods from a lifestyle perspective.
Posted on 9/27/17 at 3:55 pm to Tigerdev
quote:Its not an opinion that housing sizes right about doubled 1970-2000s
States opinion. Brands it as fact.
quote:Yes. I worry some people think I’m insulting them. Easy to do over text. So I try to make it clear I’m cheery in my comments.
Inserts emoji.
This post was edited on 9/27/17 at 3:55 pm
Posted on 9/27/17 at 3:56 pm to Taxing Authority
I've never seen people so attached to the idea that there exists a market where........
tons of people want a product not being provided
no one is providing it
but....the people who COULD provide it......instead........insist on providing something that tons of people really don't want.
On what planet?
tons of people want a product not being provided
no one is providing it
but....the people who COULD provide it......instead........insist on providing something that tons of people really don't want.
On what planet?
Posted on 9/27/17 at 3:56 pm to Taxing Authority
quote:
why haven’t homebuilders been building homes to fill that demand?
For at least up here theres no open land to build on.
Posted on 9/27/17 at 3:57 pm to ShortyRob
quote:Especially in a market where there is overcapacity in the new home construction side.
If there were, the homes would be getting built. It's really just that simple.
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