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Started By
Message
What is everyone's best guess on the % of the U.S. population infected so far?
Posted on 4/10/20 at 4:53 pm
Posted on 4/10/20 at 4:53 pm
My guess would be that roughly 3.3% of the entire U.S. population dating back to December is infected or has been infected previously with Covid-19 since December.
In other words, about 10,000,000 past and current infections with almost 20,000 deaths currently giving CV-19 a mortality rate of approximately 0.2% in the U.S.
Opening the economy back up fully today but with safe social distancing policies and stay at home recommendations for the most vulnerable poplulations in place could result in the death rate range of 0.2% to 0.4%.
Opening up the economy close to normal with very little or no restrictions today would result in a 0.2% to 0.6% mortality rate range in my opinion.
This is based on my estimate that 10,000,000 Americans have the virus or have been infected in previous months and 20,000 deaths for a 0.2% mortality rate with a month now of strict mitigation.
Assuming a worst case scenario that a complete return to normal life results in approximately 20% of the entire U.S. population or 65,000,000 Americans ultimately getting this infection by April 2021.
Here are my predicted best and worst case ranges of deaths:
1) Opening the country back up fully today to normal pre-Covid levels -
130,000 to 390,000 deaths by April 1, 2021
2) Opening the entire country's economy up (with the exception of a few of the more serious hot spots) and with a very limited degree of social distancing by late April -
130,000 to 260,000 deaths by April 1, 2021
Keep in mind the ranges of total deaths are based on worst case scenarios and the assumption that both scenarios I mentioned will result in our healthcare system being overwhelmed by opening everything back up right away.
In other words, about 10,000,000 past and current infections with almost 20,000 deaths currently giving CV-19 a mortality rate of approximately 0.2% in the U.S.
Opening the economy back up fully today but with safe social distancing policies and stay at home recommendations for the most vulnerable poplulations in place could result in the death rate range of 0.2% to 0.4%.
Opening up the economy close to normal with very little or no restrictions today would result in a 0.2% to 0.6% mortality rate range in my opinion.
This is based on my estimate that 10,000,000 Americans have the virus or have been infected in previous months and 20,000 deaths for a 0.2% mortality rate with a month now of strict mitigation.
Assuming a worst case scenario that a complete return to normal life results in approximately 20% of the entire U.S. population or 65,000,000 Americans ultimately getting this infection by April 2021.
Here are my predicted best and worst case ranges of deaths:
1) Opening the country back up fully today to normal pre-Covid levels -
130,000 to 390,000 deaths by April 1, 2021
2) Opening the entire country's economy up (with the exception of a few of the more serious hot spots) and with a very limited degree of social distancing by late April -
130,000 to 260,000 deaths by April 1, 2021
Keep in mind the ranges of total deaths are based on worst case scenarios and the assumption that both scenarios I mentioned will result in our healthcare system being overwhelmed by opening everything back up right away.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 4:58 pm to Govt Tide
My prediction is AT WORST 390,000 U.S. deaths over the 12 months following the first U.S. death since this pandemic started and that's based on 65,000,000 Americans contracting the virus over the next year if we were to go back to normal life next Monday. That number is worst case and assumes the healthcare system gets overwhelmed and no one took any social distancing precautions or vulnerable populations took no precautions
Posted on 4/10/20 at 5:03 pm to Govt Tide
Probably a quarter or better. Folks going to get an education on how seasonal respiratory viruses spread.
This post was edited on 4/10/20 at 5:04 pm
Posted on 4/10/20 at 5:07 pm to Upperaltiger06
We have been played bigly
Posted on 4/10/20 at 5:14 pm to Govt Tide
quote:
My prediction is AT WORST 390,000 U.S. deaths over the 12 months following the first U.S.
Now. Do the lottery numbers.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 5:15 pm to Govt Tide
About tree fiddy %. The Lochness Monster knows.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 5:17 pm to Govt Tide
Roughly the same number as TDS infection.
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