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What is everyone's best guess on the % of the U.S. population infected so far?

Posted on 4/10/20 at 4:53 pm
Posted by Govt Tide
Member since Nov 2009
9113 posts
Posted on 4/10/20 at 4:53 pm
My guess would be that roughly 3.3% of the entire U.S. population dating back to December is infected or has been infected previously with Covid-19 since December.

In other words, about 10,000,000 past and current infections with almost 20,000 deaths currently giving CV-19 a mortality rate of approximately 0.2% in the U.S.

Opening the economy back up fully today but with safe social distancing policies and stay at home recommendations for the most vulnerable poplulations in place could result in the death rate range of 0.2% to 0.4%.

Opening up the economy close to normal with very little or no restrictions today would result in a 0.2% to 0.6% mortality rate range in my opinion.

This is based on my estimate that 10,000,000 Americans have the virus or have been infected in previous months and 20,000 deaths for a 0.2% mortality rate with a month now of strict mitigation.

Assuming a worst case scenario that a complete return to normal life results in approximately 20% of the entire U.S. population or 65,000,000 Americans ultimately getting this infection by April 2021.

Here are my predicted best and worst case ranges of deaths:

1) Opening the country back up fully today to normal pre-Covid levels -

130,000 to 390,000 deaths by April 1, 2021

2) Opening the entire country's economy up (with the exception of a few of the more serious hot spots) and with a very limited degree of social distancing by late April -

130,000 to 260,000 deaths by April 1, 2021

Keep in mind the ranges of total deaths are based on worst case scenarios and the assumption that both scenarios I mentioned will result in our healthcare system being overwhelmed by opening everything back up right away.







Posted by Ace Midnight
Between sanity and madness
Member since Dec 2006
89511 posts
Posted on 4/10/20 at 4:55 pm to
Posted by Govt Tide
Member since Nov 2009
9113 posts
Posted on 4/10/20 at 4:58 pm to
My prediction is AT WORST 390,000 U.S. deaths over the 12 months following the first U.S. death since this pandemic started and that's based on 65,000,000 Americans contracting the virus over the next year if we were to go back to normal life next Monday. That number is worst case and assumes the healthcare system gets overwhelmed and no one took any social distancing precautions or vulnerable populations took no precautions


Posted by Upperaltiger06
North Alabama
Member since Feb 2012
3946 posts
Posted on 4/10/20 at 5:03 pm to
Probably a quarter or better. Folks going to get an education on how seasonal respiratory viruses spread.
This post was edited on 4/10/20 at 5:04 pm
Posted by iron banks
Destrehan
Member since Jul 2014
3745 posts
Posted on 4/10/20 at 5:07 pm to
We have been played bigly
Posted by PhDoogan
Member since Sep 2018
14947 posts
Posted on 4/10/20 at 5:12 pm to
Posted by DMAN1968
Member since Apr 2019
10145 posts
Posted on 4/10/20 at 5:14 pm to
quote:

My prediction is AT WORST 390,000 U.S. deaths over the 12 months following the first U.S.

Now. Do the lottery numbers.
Posted by NewGrad1212
Russia
Member since May 2012
433 posts
Posted on 4/10/20 at 5:15 pm to
About tree fiddy %. The Lochness Monster knows.
Posted by Ag Zwin
Member since Mar 2016
19942 posts
Posted on 4/10/20 at 5:17 pm to
Roughly the same number as TDS infection.
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