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re: “We overreacted” vs “it worked”

Posted on 3/28/20 at 11:28 pm to
Posted by Flats
Member since Jul 2019
21748 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 11:28 pm to
quote:

I'd say that if this doesn't have a big death toll, then it could show we DID do the right thing. Meaning, we were able to contain it enough to not have extreme mortality.


As I said elsewhere, that’s pretty convenient. If it kills a lot of people we were right to panic. If it DOESN’T kill a lot of people we were right to panic. Why wait on actual mortality data?
Posted by SickGainzLP
Member since May 2019
1230 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 11:34 pm to
You are incorrect. Flattening the curve is designed to stop ICUs from becoming overwhelmed and undersupplied. Same number of cases. Lower death rate.
Posted by David_DJS
Member since Aug 2005
17888 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 11:38 pm to
quote:

It should also reduce deaths attributable to lack of access to potentially life-saving supportive medical care.


Tiger Doc - what is the mortality rate of a person with a case bad enough they are put on a respirator? I've read it's over 90%, which casts the need for ventilators in somewhat dubious light - but that's a report in the media so perhaps not accurate. Do you know what it is?
Posted by Stingray
Shreveport
Member since Sep 2007
12420 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 11:43 pm to
quote:

Tiger Doc - what is the mortality rate of a person with a case bad enough they are put on a respirator? I've read it's over 90%, which casts the need for ventilators in somewhat dubious light - but that's a report in the media so perhaps not accurate. Do you know what it is?



Even if true, what about all the other conditions we can treat and cure that require vents, those just not going to happen when COVID has occupied all the vents?
Posted by Scoob
Near Exxon
Member since Jun 2009
20373 posts
Posted on 3/29/20 at 6:12 am to
quote:

quote:

I'd say that if this doesn't have a big death toll, then it could show we DID do the right thing. Meaning, we were able to contain it enough to not have extreme mortality.



As I said elsewhere, that’s pretty convenient. If it kills a lot of people we were right to panic. If it DOESN’T kill a lot of people we were right to panic. Why wait on actual mortality data?

I understand your point.

I just don't think the entire world is conspiring to "wreck Trump's economy", limit your ability to go to dinner, etc. Nations as far apart as Iran and Israel are all treating this as if it's extremely dangerous.
It's universally seen as a threat.

At some point, you have to decide whether EVERYONE is lying, or if it's real.

Why wait until it kills a ton, to start to do something about it? Is that really the approach you would take?
Posted by Barstools
Atlanta
Member since Jan 2016
9418 posts
Posted on 3/29/20 at 8:26 am to
quote:


So, when this ends it will be obvious who was right.


It's obvious now who is right. This whole thing is a hoax. There's no reason to be shut down.
Posted by RollTide1987
Augusta, GA
Member since Nov 2009
65072 posts
Posted on 3/29/20 at 8:30 am to
quote:

I'd say that if this doesn't have a big death toll, then it could show we DID do the right thing.


Only if the CFR turns out to be substantial. If it's below 1% (and I'm betting it is), we definitely overreacted.

Posted by Flats
Member since Jul 2019
21748 posts
Posted on 3/29/20 at 8:34 am to
quote:

I just don't think the entire world is conspiring to "wreck Trump's economy", limit your ability to go to dinner, etc. Nations as far apart as Iran and Israel are all treating this as if it's extremely dangerous.
It's universally seen as a threat.


I’m not sure why you included your opinion about that stuff; I said nothing about conspiracies or any motivation at all as to why we might be overreacting. I just said IMO it will be easy to see if we did or not.
Posted by uppermidwestbama
Member since Nov 2014
2097 posts
Posted on 3/29/20 at 8:42 am to
It's both OP. If we didn't shut things off to the rest of the world for international travel, many disease infected people from other countries would have kept coming here and spreading it, preventing us from getting it slowed down.

But we didn't need to shutdown the entire country for this. That is what the overreaction was. Place like LA and NYC needed faster reaction to prevent the spread, but idiots in NYC told their residents to go to the large social gathering. Many died as a result of their stupidity.

Posted by bfniii
Member since Nov 2005
17840 posts
Posted on 3/29/20 at 10:23 am to
quote:

slow rate of spread so that number of severe respiratory cases at any given time does not overwhelm the healthcare system's ability to care for them
the problem with the response so far is that we are on course to crash the entire healthsystem for everyone just so we can take care of a tiny fraction of people in the short term. it's unsustainable and any reasonable, non panicked, non chicken little, non hysterical person can see that.
Posted by bfniii
Member since Nov 2005
17840 posts
Posted on 3/29/20 at 10:34 am to
quote:

Our hospitals are already overcrowded so overreacted isn’t an option
it's amazing things like this get repeated as fact. no hospital, not even in nyc, is overcrowded because that is a fundamental misunderstanding of what this virus does and how the hospitals are handling it. hospitals are not admitting people to general beds because they have the virus. the virus is sending a very small, select group of people to the er/icu. no hospital has more icu beds/units/staff than general beds/staff because acute cases are less common under normal circumstances.

i get that hysterical people are going to say we don't want to overrun the icu's, which is certainly an issue. however, the us has the resources to handle this without shutting down the country. want proof? cuomo admitting that the thousands of cases of equipment sitting in his warehouse was actually not that critical after all, just after pulling a jimmy swaggert on live national tv about how they need apocalyptic amounts of equipment.
Posted by bfniii
Member since Nov 2005
17840 posts
Posted on 3/29/20 at 10:35 am to
quote:

Where would you start?
you mean other than new orleans?
Posted by bfniii
Member since Nov 2005
17840 posts
Posted on 3/29/20 at 10:37 am to
quote:

At some point, you have to decide whether EVERYONE is lying, or if it's real
and this is excluded middle. it's also possible that most everyone is mistaken. and you're not including that most every nation has had a different response at different times. some tightened up while others were releasing and vice versa.
Posted by badlands
Member since Apr 2008
2313 posts
Posted on 3/29/20 at 11:45 am to
No one will touch those questions.
Posted by Scoob
Near Exxon
Member since Jun 2009
20373 posts
Posted on 3/29/20 at 9:07 pm to
Take this as you want.

I'm an RN and work in a hospital. There are a lot of people who seem ok, and they make it through this fine (as of now). For that small percentage that it seems to hit and they can't shake it initially, it hits VERY hard and fast. It appears as of now that you either fight it off and it doesn't get worse than a mild cold (and you don't need to come in), or it overwhelms you. Doesn't seem to be an in-between.
Posted by schwabbie28
United States
Member since Apr 2006
272 posts
Posted on 3/29/20 at 9:13 pm to
Agreed.
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