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re: “We overreacted” vs “it worked”
Posted on 3/28/20 at 11:28 pm to Scoob
Posted on 3/28/20 at 11:28 pm to Scoob
quote:
I'd say that if this doesn't have a big death toll, then it could show we DID do the right thing. Meaning, we were able to contain it enough to not have extreme mortality.
As I said elsewhere, that’s pretty convenient. If it kills a lot of people we were right to panic. If it DOESN’T kill a lot of people we were right to panic. Why wait on actual mortality data?
Posted on 3/28/20 at 11:34 pm to Bjorn Cyborg
You are incorrect. Flattening the curve is designed to stop ICUs from becoming overwhelmed and undersupplied. Same number of cases. Lower death rate.
Posted on 3/28/20 at 11:38 pm to TigerDoc
quote:
It should also reduce deaths attributable to lack of access to potentially life-saving supportive medical care.
Tiger Doc - what is the mortality rate of a person with a case bad enough they are put on a respirator? I've read it's over 90%, which casts the need for ventilators in somewhat dubious light - but that's a report in the media so perhaps not accurate. Do you know what it is?
Posted on 3/28/20 at 11:43 pm to David_DJS
quote:
Tiger Doc - what is the mortality rate of a person with a case bad enough they are put on a respirator? I've read it's over 90%, which casts the need for ventilators in somewhat dubious light - but that's a report in the media so perhaps not accurate. Do you know what it is?
Even if true, what about all the other conditions we can treat and cure that require vents, those just not going to happen when COVID has occupied all the vents?
Posted on 3/29/20 at 6:12 am to Flats
quote:I understand your point.quote:
I'd say that if this doesn't have a big death toll, then it could show we DID do the right thing. Meaning, we were able to contain it enough to not have extreme mortality.
As I said elsewhere, that’s pretty convenient. If it kills a lot of people we were right to panic. If it DOESN’T kill a lot of people we were right to panic. Why wait on actual mortality data?
I just don't think the entire world is conspiring to "wreck Trump's economy", limit your ability to go to dinner, etc. Nations as far apart as Iran and Israel are all treating this as if it's extremely dangerous.
It's universally seen as a threat.
At some point, you have to decide whether EVERYONE is lying, or if it's real.
Why wait until it kills a ton, to start to do something about it? Is that really the approach you would take?
Posted on 3/29/20 at 8:26 am to Bjorn Cyborg
quote:
So, when this ends it will be obvious who was right.
It's obvious now who is right. This whole thing is a hoax. There's no reason to be shut down.
Posted on 3/29/20 at 8:30 am to Scoob
quote:
I'd say that if this doesn't have a big death toll, then it could show we DID do the right thing.
Only if the CFR turns out to be substantial. If it's below 1% (and I'm betting it is), we definitely overreacted.
Posted on 3/29/20 at 8:34 am to Scoob
quote:
I just don't think the entire world is conspiring to "wreck Trump's economy", limit your ability to go to dinner, etc. Nations as far apart as Iran and Israel are all treating this as if it's extremely dangerous.
It's universally seen as a threat.
I’m not sure why you included your opinion about that stuff; I said nothing about conspiracies or any motivation at all as to why we might be overreacting. I just said IMO it will be easy to see if we did or not.
Posted on 3/29/20 at 8:42 am to Bjorn Cyborg
It's both OP. If we didn't shut things off to the rest of the world for international travel, many disease infected people from other countries would have kept coming here and spreading it, preventing us from getting it slowed down.
But we didn't need to shutdown the entire country for this. That is what the overreaction was. Place like LA and NYC needed faster reaction to prevent the spread, but idiots in NYC told their residents to go to the large social gathering. Many died as a result of their stupidity.
But we didn't need to shutdown the entire country for this. That is what the overreaction was. Place like LA and NYC needed faster reaction to prevent the spread, but idiots in NYC told their residents to go to the large social gathering. Many died as a result of their stupidity.
Posted on 3/29/20 at 10:23 am to LSUnation78
quote:the problem with the response so far is that we are on course to crash the entire healthsystem for everyone just so we can take care of a tiny fraction of people in the short term. it's unsustainable and any reasonable, non panicked, non chicken little, non hysterical person can see that.
slow rate of spread so that number of severe respiratory cases at any given time does not overwhelm the healthcare system's ability to care for them
Posted on 3/29/20 at 10:34 am to crewdepoo
quote:it's amazing things like this get repeated as fact. no hospital, not even in nyc, is overcrowded because that is a fundamental misunderstanding of what this virus does and how the hospitals are handling it. hospitals are not admitting people to general beds because they have the virus. the virus is sending a very small, select group of people to the er/icu. no hospital has more icu beds/units/staff than general beds/staff because acute cases are less common under normal circumstances.
Our hospitals are already overcrowded so overreacted isn’t an option
i get that hysterical people are going to say we don't want to overrun the icu's, which is certainly an issue. however, the us has the resources to handle this without shutting down the country. want proof? cuomo admitting that the thousands of cases of equipment sitting in his warehouse was actually not that critical after all, just after pulling a jimmy swaggert on live national tv about how they need apocalyptic amounts of equipment.
Posted on 3/29/20 at 10:35 am to Kickadawgitfeelsgood
quote:you mean other than new orleans?
Where would you start?
Posted on 3/29/20 at 10:37 am to Scoob
quote:and this is excluded middle. it's also possible that most everyone is mistaken. and you're not including that most every nation has had a different response at different times. some tightened up while others were releasing and vice versa.
At some point, you have to decide whether EVERYONE is lying, or if it's real
Posted on 3/29/20 at 11:45 am to Jyrdis
No one will touch those questions.
Posted on 3/29/20 at 9:07 pm to bfniii
Take this as you want.
I'm an RN and work in a hospital. There are a lot of people who seem ok, and they make it through this fine (as of now). For that small percentage that it seems to hit and they can't shake it initially, it hits VERY hard and fast. It appears as of now that you either fight it off and it doesn't get worse than a mild cold (and you don't need to come in), or it overwhelms you. Doesn't seem to be an in-between.
I'm an RN and work in a hospital. There are a lot of people who seem ok, and they make it through this fine (as of now). For that small percentage that it seems to hit and they can't shake it initially, it hits VERY hard and fast. It appears as of now that you either fight it off and it doesn't get worse than a mild cold (and you don't need to come in), or it overwhelms you. Doesn't seem to be an in-between.
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