re: US says it has conducted 'extraordinary' flight over Ukraine in warning to Russia

Ukraine is like Russia in the 90s, except the state institutions are much weaker, and the rule of law is even more limited.

All of the major parties in Ukraine are backed by kleptocratic oligarchs, who have their own parochial interests, which generally include self enrichment.

Poroshenko is unusual because he is both a politician and an oligarch.

He has been no less aggressive in looting the state for his own financial benefit though. That includes steering contracts to his firms, and signing terms which are tilted in his favor.

This also happened in Russia in the 90s, but Putin was able to eventually crush the oligarchs, you can make money, but stay out of politics, and restore state control.

That’s not to say things are great in Russia, they’re just much better than they were, and vastly better than the situation in Ukraine.

The big issue for us is we have Western Ukrainians using us, to pursue their grudge against their Eastern cousins. They’re dragging us into their parochial fight. And the westerners are as reckless as they are corrupt.

The divide is cultural, and dates to the Mongol invasion and the rise of the Polish Lithuanian commonwealth. That split the people of the region we call Ukraine, between west and east. Easterners speak Russian in their homes, for example.

The best outcome for us is neutral Ukraine that provides a buffer between NATO and Russia. The Ukrainians may hate living with each other, but it’s better than war.

I believe this is Moscow’s preferred outcome.

If the westerners continue to pursue an aggressive course though, they will break the country into two.

In that event Moscow would probably encourage the separatists to occupy as much territory as possible, but they would refrain from officially recognizing this new state, or annexing it.

If I remember correctly, Poroshenko has a 10% approval rating, and the latest crisis was probably an attempt to stay in power. It’s why he pushed for an extended period of martial law. It would allow him to postpone the upcoming elections.

It’s also why his rivals made sure martial law wouldn’t last more than a month, and elections could proceed as scheduled.

If Poroshenko loses, his rivals will use their new power to destroy him. So he will do everything he can to hang on.