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re: Trump promoting a 50 year mortgage. Dave Ramsey will lose his mind. Terrible idea - imo
Posted on 11/9/25 at 8:08 pm to SlowFlowPro
Posted on 11/9/25 at 8:08 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
The market is already taking care of that
How is the market taking care of a giant buying up SFRs and renting them?
1
Posted on 11/9/25 at 8:12 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
How is the market taking care of a giant buying up SFRs and renting them?
It became too risky years ago and they stopped engaging in it.
In 2022 they stopped buying in 38 cities
quote:
Returns have fallen: As rates have basically doubled, returns have fallen substantially, when buyers could borrower in the 2-3% range, it was incredibly easy to make a healthy return. Now with rates double or triple, the numbers might not pencil out
Market has gotten too high: Prices have gone up by double digits year over year, Blackstone and others recognize this growth is not sustainable and we are somewhere near a peak so it is a good time to slow down or completely halt buying at these price points as the only way from here is down.
Wait for future opportunities at lower prices: There is a prevailing feeling in the market that prices will be heading down substantially as the economy resets and interest rates continue to rise. This will allow considerably more buying opportunities at much lower prices.
They just sold $1.8B in senior housing and lost $600M
quote:
Blackstone (BX) is planning to liquidate a $1.8B wager on senior housing that led to more than $600M in losses for the firm, Deborah Acosta and Peter Grant of The Wall Street Journal reports. Blackstone is selling off its portfolio of about 9,000 senior-housing units across the U.S. in a series of transactions with losses of up to over 70% compared to the original purchase price, an analysis by the Journal shows.
Posted on 11/9/25 at 8:17 pm to SlowFlowPro
What will stop them from doing it again when rates drop?
Posted on 11/9/25 at 8:25 pm to SDVTiger
You're further proving my point about the problems being created by government and their irrational policy goals of protecting home values.
The solution to so much of this is just to let the market run its course and have housing prices decline to their natural state (where they can be efficient without government policy artificially increasing their values).
Claiming you're helping people who can't afford a house by making their total costs (if they want to actually own a house and not just rent from a bank for a few years) higher is just crazy. Like I said earlier, this is thinking for the poors as if they're at a car dealership doing a four square. Completely inefficient and self-sacrificial consumer decision-making.
The solution to so much of this is just to let the market run its course and have housing prices decline to their natural state (where they can be efficient without government policy artificially increasing their values).
Claiming you're helping people who can't afford a house by making their total costs (if they want to actually own a house and not just rent from a bank for a few years) higher is just crazy. Like I said earlier, this is thinking for the poors as if they're at a car dealership doing a four square. Completely inefficient and self-sacrificial consumer decision-making.
Posted on 11/9/25 at 8:56 pm to SlowFlowPro
Values are not going to decline unless 08 happens again
Its weird how thats the solution you all want
Its weird how thats the solution you all want
Posted on 11/9/25 at 8:58 pm to SDVTiger
quote:Nope, I paid off my house in 14 years.
Should it take 30yrs?
Posted on 11/9/25 at 9:04 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:To be clear, Blackstone is a highly risk averse company. They don't intentionally "take on a LOT of risk doing" anything. SFRs are no exception.
Blackstone, and they take on a LOT of risk doing this
Blackstone (via Home Partners of America) buys SFRs in a calculated, elective and unemotional manner. It is a tremendous advantage. The elective part is key.
E.g., Our last two home sales were market-timed rather than necessitated. That luxury made a huge profit difference for us.
But then we had to purchase a new place in an optimal location. From the buying side ... meh. The problem is, when you're tied to selling or hunting a residence, there are premium elements you are willing to pay. Blackstone enjoys the advantages we did from the seller's standpoint, but at both ends of the transaction.
Because BStone can choose its moment, while sellers, buyers, or lessees normally cannot, BS and similar companies enjoy a tremendous advantage
Posted on 11/9/25 at 9:32 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
Its weird how thats the solution you all want
Nothing weird about the most rational and economically efficient solution.
Posted on 11/9/25 at 9:43 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Nothing weird about the most rational and economically efficient solution
Yeah well i hope you all get it
The amount of tears on here will be worth it
Posted on 11/10/25 at 6:52 am to SDVTiger
quote:
Yeah well i hope you all get it
The amount of tears on here will be worth it
Listen you don't have to tell me many "Conservatives" on here have rejected free market principles for leftist-socialist governmental policy. I already know that.
This would just be a tactile example of that unfolding in real time.
Posted on 11/10/25 at 6:55 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Nothing weird about the most rational and economically efficient solution.
Weird way to dress up punishing those who've been successful (home owners). But that's what dems do.
Posted on 11/10/25 at 7:24 am to Azkiger
quote:
Weird way to dress up punishing those who've been successful (home owners).
People have been warning about inflation in RE prices since 2011 or so pretty consistently.
Just a random look at the data should tell people the values of RE aren't market-based, nor are they sustainable, and the bubble will pop.
It's not about punishment. This is how markets work. You sound like a socialist.
The real people who are being punished are the ones who are acting rationally based off market-based analysis, who keep getting thwarted by government manipulation of the market to artificially prop up RE values. The good decision-makers are being punished for acting rationally.
quote:
But that's what dems do.
Says the guy making socialist points because he's upset with free market forces being allowed to work
Yes, the DEMs are big free market guys
This post was edited on 11/10/25 at 7:25 am
Posted on 11/10/25 at 7:42 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:You still seem to be under the impression there is some decades-long wild government-driven disconnect between income and housing.
The solution to so much of this is just to let the market run its course and have housing prices decline to their natural state (where they can be efficient without government policy artificially increasing their values).
Claiming you're helping people who can't afford a house by making their total costs (if they want to actually own a house and not just rent from a bank for a few years) higher is just crazy.
In reality there was no disconnect until covid/post-covid Housing affordability took a hit. The two tacked very closely. Reasons for the post-2020 hit were multifactorial, including social/urban shutdown, desire for better WFH circumstances, etc.
Post-covid, we're now at roughly a 12% HomePrice-to-Income differential. Assuming prices flatten for 2-3 yrs, as they are currently, the gap will close, then disappear.
Again, until covid, median HomePrice/Sq-Ft and median HHI tracked closely as the three graphs below indicate. The final graph is simply an overlay of the first two
Posted on 11/10/25 at 7:47 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
You still seem to be under the impression there is some decades-long wild government-driven disconnect between income and housing.
In reality there was no disconnect until covid/post-covid Housing affordability took a hit. T
Did you miss the decade of ZIRP?
Housing was already priced too high prior to Covid, and Covid made it go bonkers (largely due to interest rates being lowed by the government and trillions flooding the economy in printed government dollars, but also all sorts of policies that prevented foreclosures...see stout's threads about that).
Now that housing is starting to come down from that HEIGHTENED peak (the Covid peak, not the pre-Covid inflationary period), the government is responding, yet again, to protect these Covid-level prices, with lower interest rates and this 50-year mortgage idea.
We need housing pricing to fall below the 2019 levels. The post-2009 government policies kept housing prices inflated that entire time. At some point between 2009 and 2019 is the market-based value of these homes.
quote:
median HomePrice/Sq-Ft a
Only you keep pivoting this data.
This post was edited on 11/10/25 at 7:49 am
Posted on 11/10/25 at 7:55 am to OysterPoBoy
wouldn't most people die before the term of the loan?
This post was edited on 11/10/25 at 7:56 am
Posted on 11/10/25 at 7:55 am to Upperdecker
quote:
people will never build significant equity in their housing on a 50 year mortgage, unless they make it 35+ years. There will be almost no equity in the 1st 20 years. Can you imagine paying for something for 20 years and having no equity?
This is a dumb take. Real estate by and large appreciates. Therefore in 2 years you can have significant equity much less 10, 15, or 30 in a 50 year mortgage.
The average sale price of a new home in the U.S. was about $32,500 in 1973, a price that has increased to approximately $492,300 in 2023 (or higher for 2024/2025 data). This represents a roughly 15-fold increase in the nominal price over 50 years, though a significant portion of the increase is due to inflation, which has decreased the purchasing power of the dollar.
Posted on 11/10/25 at 8:01 am to rebeloke
quote:
This is a dumb take. Real estate by and large appreciates.
not true at all. Lots of "up and coming" areas of every city that never materialize. Also rural homes do not appreciate much over 10 years. My grandmothers house, purchased in a small town in 1920 for $8,000 sold in 2010 for $50,000. It took 90 years to go up $42k.
Interest rates will be higher for a 50 year note, I'd think this would appeal to more of a junk loan client than one buying a nice home in a desirable area.
quote:. This fact is irrelevant. You are talking about two separate houses in this scenario. Your $492k house is going to include new builds that are twice as big and factor in the cost of inflation for building materials. The 1973 house will not have appreciated anywhere NEAR that much unless its in some amazing part of town that is being sold for land value.
new home in the U.S. was about $32,500 in 1973, a price that has increased to approximately $492,300 in 2023
This post was edited on 11/10/25 at 8:05 am
Posted on 11/10/25 at 8:05 am to TigerBaitOohHaHa
quote:
not true at all. Lots of "up and coming" areas of every city that never materialize. Also rural homes do not appreciate much over 10 years.
And a lot of the appreciation is directly tied to government actions creating that inflation
If we move to a market-based system where government takes its hands off the scales and stops artificially propping up these prices and it's not going to be an automatic truth that real estate increases in the way that we perceive that to be a canonical aspect of our culture. In part, that's the reason why government keeps intervening and bailing out real estate.
Just look at the responses in this thread. When people talk about how real estate prices need to decrease significantly, like 15 to 25%. It is an unpalatable concept and people would rather have the government keep subsidizing their real estate prices to avoid facing that reality than to allow the free market to work.
Posted on 11/10/25 at 8:07 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:The GenY decade prioritizing experiences and urban lifestyle over homeownership.
Did you miss the decade of ZIRP?
quote:
Only you keep pivoting this data
As opposed to insisting a 2050sq-ft home in 2000 should track in real dollars to a 2400sq-ft home in 2025? Why would you consider apples-to-apples ppsf comparisons to be a "pivot"?
Posted on 11/10/25 at 8:07 am to SlowFlowPro
Endless Debt its the Trump way
50 year mortgage
7 year car loans
a Trillion in 37 days
Hes a walking Mardi Gras Parade
Obama on roids
50 year mortgage
7 year car loans
a Trillion in 37 days
Hes a walking Mardi Gras Parade
Obama on roids
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