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Started By
Message
re: Trump calls on FED to cut rates; hints at Powell being fired soon
Posted on 4/17/25 at 12:39 pm to Crowknowsbest
Posted on 4/17/25 at 12:39 pm to Crowknowsbest
quote:Nope. The Fed mandate requires the Federal Reserve to promote both maximum employment and stable prices.
The Fed’s mandate centers around inflation and unemployment.
To the extent, as you've observed, that unemployment and inflation are trailing indicators, reacting to inflation and unemployment instead of anticipating them will always leave us behind the eight-ball.
In fact, that is EXACTLY what happened in Spring 2022 when the Fed could not seem to anticipate the effects of Buttigieg's shite for supply, in the face of pandemic recovering demand, and a massive money print. They were looking backwards with piss poor forward focus.
This post was edited on 4/17/25 at 12:40 pm
1
Posted on 4/17/25 at 12:51 pm to Crowknowsbest
quote:You may be unfamiliar with an arm of the US government known as the Legislative Branch. But within that body, MMT is as commonly accepted as immorality in a brothel.
Modern monetary theory has largely been discredited as a result.
But again, the last thing in the world the Fed should want to do is punish Congress for pushing back from the MMT table if Congress miraculously chose to do so.
Posted on 4/17/25 at 1:06 pm to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
Damn, according to your chart, Joe Biden tamed Trumps inflation.
Damn.
That's month over month, not year over year. The only negatives were under Trump. Biden tamed is own inflation some.
Posted on 4/17/25 at 1:12 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
To the extent, as you've observed, that unemployment and inflation are trailing indicators, reacting to inflation and unemployment instead of anticipating them will always leave us behind the eight-ball.
I’d rather have a reactive Fed using actual data than have them try to react to the whims of flavor-of-the-month politicians while also trying to predict aggregate consumer behavior. I’d rather them be a few months late than guess wrong, basically.
Posted on 4/17/25 at 1:12 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
You may be unfamiliar with an arm of the US government known as the Legislative Branch. But within that body, MMT is as commonly accepted as immorality in a brothel
I don’t respect the economic understanding of the legislative branch.
Posted on 4/17/25 at 2:01 pm to mmcgrath
quote:
That sounds horrible. What do you think caused the sudden downturn
Bidenomics
Posted on 4/17/25 at 2:04 pm to theballguy
Exactly,
And that’s what I did!
I should be on it right now but too lazy to take the cover off…
And that’s what I did!
I should be on it right now but too lazy to take the cover off…
Posted on 4/17/25 at 4:03 pm to Crowknowsbest
quote:That would put you in a very limited group. Your preference for acting on yesterday's news notwithstanding, the Fed's dual mandate demands a different responsibility.
I’d rather have a reactive Fed using actual data
Powell & Co have been late to the game, consistently.
Posted on 4/17/25 at 4:05 pm to Crowknowsbest
quote:It is not a matter of respect, it's a matter of fact.
I don’t respect the economic understanding of the legislative branch.
If I'm reading the tea leaves, there is not yet a sign of change re: MMT in that body.
Posted on 4/17/25 at 4:08 pm to RogerTheShrubber
quote:You're joking?
Usually, they act when it falls under 2.
Posted on 4/17/25 at 4:11 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
If I'm reading the tea leaves, there is not yet a sign of change re: MMT in that body.
That’s because they are heavily incentivized to agree with MMT. It’s easier to justify excessive spending when you can finance it cheaply.
Posted on 4/17/25 at 4:13 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
That would put you in a very limited group. Your preference for acting on yesterday's news notwithstanding, the Fed's dual mandate demands a different responsibility.
I don’t think any human beings are capable of reliably “reading the tea leaves” on something as complex and massive as the US (and global) economy. Pretending that they can or should is very irresponsible, in my opinion.
Posted on 4/17/25 at 4:14 pm to Crowknowsbest
quote:So you are not active in the markets?
I don’t think any human beings are capable of reliably “reading the tea leaves”
Posted on 4/17/25 at 4:14 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
Usually, they act when it falls under 2.
You're joking?
quote:
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) judges that inflation of 2 percent over the longer run, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, is most consistent with the Federal Reserve’s mandate for maximum employment and price stability
I assume you understand the Phillips curve.
Posted on 4/17/25 at 4:16 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
So you are not active in the markets?
I am very active, but I don’t pretend to have extreme confidence in any one stock, company, property, etc. I do have confidence in the aggregate of the capitalist economy to create value over time.
Posted on 4/17/25 at 4:17 pm to Crowknowsbest
quote:Motive is irrelevant. Your respect, or mine (we agree strongly on MMT, btw), is irrelevant. The decisions, and massive deficit spending are being decided there. It is what it is.
That’s because they are heavily incentivized to agree with MMT.
Posted on 4/17/25 at 4:23 pm to Crowknowsbest
quote:Extreme confidence is irrelevant. Competence is the relevant consideration. Any fund is going to issue the Miranda Rights of Investment ... "Past performance is no guarantee of future results."
I am very active, but I don’t pretend to have extreme confidence in any one stock
If you're very active, you understand. Past is important. Future is paramount. The Fed is no different.
Posted on 4/17/25 at 4:43 pm to RogerTheShrubber
quote:Well cuz, yeah I do. It's relevance in this instance is questionable, but your intimation regarding inflation targets is not. Play out that 2% inflation target in terms of Fed actions in Spring of 2022. Please take your time.
I assume you understand the Phillips curve.
Posted on 4/17/25 at 4:48 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
2% inflation target in terms of Fed actions in Spring of 2022
quote:
The Fed hiked interest rates a total of 11 times starting in March 2022, making borrowing more expensive for banks, businesses, and people in an attempt to curb rampant inflation.
In March 2022, the Fed made its first interest rate increase since 2018, raising rates from 0% by 0.25% to a level of 0.25–0.50%
They did what you would expect, raise rates to take inflation.
Posted on 4/17/25 at 5:06 pm to RogerTheShrubber
quote:No sir!
They did what you would expect
Had they done what I'd have expected, I'd not be posting that way.
What they did was enjoyable schadenfreude for me. The Biden Admin was comprised of folks who didn't have an effing clue about markets, supply chains, demand economics, entrepreneurialism, capitalism, negative effects of CCP manipulation, etc.
The expectation was that the Fed did. Unfortunately, it didn't either. Hence schadenfreude.
Let's define that.
As a mere individual, I was betting on high continuing inflation as inevitable when Powell was first talking """transient""" inflation.
Why?
Because it was obvious!!!
This post was edited on 4/17/25 at 5:08 pm
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