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re: True or False: Trump is the only candidate who can outright win Tuesday night
Posted on 11/2/20 at 11:53 am to SlowFlowPro
Posted on 11/2/20 at 11:53 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Scoop would have known
Hopefully Scoop got his ballot in. Otherwise he will vote for Biden.
0
Posted on 11/2/20 at 12:09 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
are you talking like, national vote count or something?
If the polls are wrong like 2016, Trump is going to drag his nuts all over the midwest (he already has Florida and Ohio sewn up) and take NC/Nevada.
I think he's saying if the exact margin of error that benefited Trump in 2016 was applied to the current polling, Biden still wins, so Trump would need a larger margin of error this time around.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 12:20 pm to NawlinsTiger9
quote:
Biden has an average of +2.9 in battleground state averages right now according to RCP
The polls in 2016 missed by +2.8.
You have to go state by state. I think most everyone agrees that this race is going to come down to PA/NC/MI/AZ/and WI.
RCP is currently showing the following:
PA: 2.9 (Biden). Trump outperformed by 2.6 in 2016, so still slight Biden advantage.
NC: 0.6 (Trump). Trump outperformed by 2.7 in 2016. Advantage Trump.
MI: 5.1 (Biden). Trump outperformed by 3.7 in 2016. Advantage Biden.
AZ: 1.0 (Biden). Trump underperformed by 0.5 in 2016. Advantage Biden.
WI: 6.6 (Biden). Trump outperformed by 7.2 in 2016. Advantage Trump.
AZ, PA, and MI are all within the MOE at this point.
If all other states break the way we expect them to and Trump wins NC, AZ, and WI then we end up in a 269-269 tie, which would be the most 2020 thing ever.
This post was edited on 11/2/20 at 12:30 pm
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