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re: The end of the US

Posted on 12/11/14 at 11:35 am to
Posted by Poodlebrain
Way Right of Rex
Member since Jan 2004
19860 posts
Posted on 12/11/14 at 11:35 am to
quote:

How exactly does that "end" the nation?
The question wasn't about the end of the nation. It was the end of the US.

The national government will seek to expand its power, as all governments do. Unless there is a complete turnaround in trends, the ability of the state and local governments, backed by the will of the people, to prevent consolidation of power by the national government will fail. The consolidation of power at the national level will render the states useless. They may be kept as political subdivisions based on tradition, but power and patronage will be concentrated in the nation's capital and in the national bureaucracy.
Posted by JRT25
North Carloina
Member since Jan 2011
50 posts
Posted on 12/11/14 at 11:37 am to
It's the second highest debt to GDP ratio we've ever had. We can manage. Japan, Germany, and the UK survived with external debts well above their GDPs for decades. We're just below that 100% threshhold only when including the 6T in debt the government owes itself.

The key distinction is understanding that we are currently able to keep interest rates on US debt unbelievably low for 2 reasons: 1) The primacy of the dollar as the world denomiation and 2) Quantitative Easing 3.

Normally, when a nation exceeds 100% its bond holdings lose value and thus interest rates go up in order to sell them. If interest rates go up, they will do so rapidly and it would nose dive the economy (recession or depression depending on degrees).

We know QE3 will end soon. Wizards of smart are hoping we can keep condition 1 going indefinitely.

The BL is this level of debt is risky.
Posted by Navytiger74
Member since Oct 2009
50458 posts
Posted on 12/11/14 at 11:38 am to
quote:

The question wasn't about the end of the nation. It was the end of the US.


I'm sure I'm missing something here.

quote:

The consolidation of power at the national level will render the states useless.


I must have missed that point in US history in which the States were bastions of liberty, economic responsibility, and governmental honesty and competence.
Posted by Navytiger74
Member since Oct 2009
50458 posts
Posted on 12/11/14 at 11:40 am to
quote:

The key distinction is understanding that we are currently able to keep interest rates on US debt unbelievably low for 2 reasons: 1) The primacy of the dollar as the world denomiation and 2) Quantitative Easing 3.

Normally, when a nation exceeds 100% its bond holdings lose value and thus interest rates go up in order to sell them. If interest rates go up, they will do so rapidly and it would nose dive the economy (recession or depression depending on degrees).

We know QE3 will end soon. Wizards of smart are hoping we can keep condition 1 going indefinitely.

The BL is this level of debt is risky.


Again, Japan, Germany, and UK survived without the luxery of printing the world's reserve currency (though the Pound and Yen are important and the Mark was).
Posted by mtheob17
Charleston, SC
Member since Sep 2009
5481 posts
Posted on 12/11/14 at 11:43 am to
Posted by Jay Quest
Once removed from Massachusetts
Member since Nov 2009
10681 posts
Posted on 12/11/14 at 11:58 am to
quote:

a) continue to "apathy away" like a cancer

If that includes lack of political awareness then, yes, that could be a major contributing factor.
quote:

b) military coup that breaks us into 4 or 5 pieces

Not likely IMO
quote:

c) Aids or Ebola

Not likely IMO
quote:

d) nuke

That's a concern
quote:

e) economic meltdown (cause doesn't matter)

If we go down the world comes with us.
quote:

g) other (please specify)

Natural catastrophe, like a yellowstone eruption, is the most compelling
Posted by Homesick Tiger
Greenbrier, AR
Member since Nov 2006
56114 posts
Posted on 12/11/14 at 12:04 pm to
George Washington said political parties would be the downfall of the nation.

I agree. We just couldn't make a definite decision on when that will be.
Posted by Wtodd
Tampa, FL
Member since Oct 2013
68464 posts
Posted on 12/11/14 at 12:07 pm to
quote:

Maybe you can add a coop to that list

Amari?
This post was edited on 12/11/14 at 12:14 pm
Posted by Asgard Device
The Daedalus
Member since Apr 2011
11562 posts
Posted on 12/11/14 at 12:08 pm to
Did you buy your food insurance, yet?
Posted by Gulf Coast Tiger
Ms Gulf Coast
Member since Jan 2004
20490 posts
Posted on 12/11/14 at 12:10 pm to
quote:

Not as long as the military is as dominant as it is.


What happens when we can't buy fuel or pay the soldiers?
Posted by Wtodd
Tampa, FL
Member since Oct 2013
68464 posts
Posted on 12/11/14 at 12:13 pm to
quote:

SS and Medicare will be dramatically restructured within the next few decades

Just like some cities are doing now with pensions.
Posted by goatmilker
Castle Anthrax
Member since Feb 2009
73892 posts
Posted on 12/11/14 at 12:13 pm to
What happens when we can't buy fuel or pay the soldiers?




Posted by Road Tiger
SW Landmass
Member since Oct 2014
834 posts
Posted on 12/11/14 at 12:13 pm to
quote:

George Washington said political parties would be the downfall of the nation. I agree. We just couldn't make a definite decision on when that will be.


We do have a one party system. It's called the Washington party. There is a left wing and a right wing. When you get down to the nitty gritty a politician is a politician.
Posted by Wtodd
Tampa, FL
Member since Oct 2013
68464 posts
Posted on 12/11/14 at 12:14 pm to
quote:

can't buy fuel

I think we're OK through my lifetime plus a few decades
quote:

or pay the soldiers?

Print more money
Posted by goatmilker
Castle Anthrax
Member since Feb 2009
73892 posts
Posted on 12/11/14 at 12:18 pm to
When it all falls down money becomes good toilet paper.

Or fire starter.
Posted by JRT25
North Carloina
Member since Jan 2011
50 posts
Posted on 12/11/14 at 12:19 pm to
quote:

Again, Japan, Germany, and UK survived without the luxery of printing the world's reserve currency (though the Pound and Yen are important and the Mark was)


Are you referring to post WWII/Bretton Woods conference? If so, I think that simply makes my point. It took a world war to rectify their debts.
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