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re: The end of the US
Posted on 12/11/14 at 11:35 am to Navytiger74
Posted on 12/11/14 at 11:35 am to Navytiger74
quote:The question wasn't about the end of the nation. It was the end of the US.
How exactly does that "end" the nation?
The national government will seek to expand its power, as all governments do. Unless there is a complete turnaround in trends, the ability of the state and local governments, backed by the will of the people, to prevent consolidation of power by the national government will fail. The consolidation of power at the national level will render the states useless. They may be kept as political subdivisions based on tradition, but power and patronage will be concentrated in the nation's capital and in the national bureaucracy.
Posted on 12/11/14 at 11:37 am to Navytiger74
It's the second highest debt to GDP ratio we've ever had. We can manage. Japan, Germany, and the UK survived with external debts well above their GDPs for decades. We're just below that 100% threshhold only when including the 6T in debt the government owes itself.
The key distinction is understanding that we are currently able to keep interest rates on US debt unbelievably low for 2 reasons: 1) The primacy of the dollar as the world denomiation and 2) Quantitative Easing 3.
Normally, when a nation exceeds 100% its bond holdings lose value and thus interest rates go up in order to sell them. If interest rates go up, they will do so rapidly and it would nose dive the economy (recession or depression depending on degrees).
We know QE3 will end soon. Wizards of smart are hoping we can keep condition 1 going indefinitely.
The BL is this level of debt is risky.
The key distinction is understanding that we are currently able to keep interest rates on US debt unbelievably low for 2 reasons: 1) The primacy of the dollar as the world denomiation and 2) Quantitative Easing 3.
Normally, when a nation exceeds 100% its bond holdings lose value and thus interest rates go up in order to sell them. If interest rates go up, they will do so rapidly and it would nose dive the economy (recession or depression depending on degrees).
We know QE3 will end soon. Wizards of smart are hoping we can keep condition 1 going indefinitely.
The BL is this level of debt is risky.
Posted on 12/11/14 at 11:38 am to Poodlebrain
quote:
The question wasn't about the end of the nation. It was the end of the US.
I'm sure I'm missing something here.
quote:
The consolidation of power at the national level will render the states useless.
I must have missed that point in US history in which the States were bastions of liberty, economic responsibility, and governmental honesty and competence.
Posted on 12/11/14 at 11:40 am to JRT25
quote:
The key distinction is understanding that we are currently able to keep interest rates on US debt unbelievably low for 2 reasons: 1) The primacy of the dollar as the world denomiation and 2) Quantitative Easing 3.
Normally, when a nation exceeds 100% its bond holdings lose value and thus interest rates go up in order to sell them. If interest rates go up, they will do so rapidly and it would nose dive the economy (recession or depression depending on degrees).
We know QE3 will end soon. Wizards of smart are hoping we can keep condition 1 going indefinitely.
The BL is this level of debt is risky.
Again, Japan, Germany, and UK survived without the luxery of printing the world's reserve currency (though the Pound and Yen are important and the Mark was).
Posted on 12/11/14 at 11:58 am to Wtodd
quote:
a) continue to "apathy away" like a cancer
If that includes lack of political awareness then, yes, that could be a major contributing factor.
quote:
b) military coup that breaks us into 4 or 5 pieces
Not likely IMO
quote:
c) Aids or Ebola
Not likely IMO
quote:
d) nuke
That's a concern
quote:
e) economic meltdown (cause doesn't matter)
If we go down the world comes with us.
quote:
g) other (please specify)
Natural catastrophe, like a yellowstone eruption, is the most compelling
Posted on 12/11/14 at 12:04 pm to Wtodd
George Washington said political parties would be the downfall of the nation.
I agree. We just couldn't make a definite decision on when that will be.
I agree. We just couldn't make a definite decision on when that will be.
Posted on 12/11/14 at 12:07 pm to cwill
quote:
Maybe you can add a coop to that list
Amari?
This post was edited on 12/11/14 at 12:14 pm
Posted on 12/11/14 at 12:08 pm to Wtodd
Did you buy your food insurance, yet?
Posted on 12/11/14 at 12:10 pm to AndyCBR
quote:
Not as long as the military is as dominant as it is.
What happens when we can't buy fuel or pay the soldiers?
Posted on 12/11/14 at 12:13 pm to Navytiger74
quote:
SS and Medicare will be dramatically restructured within the next few decades
Just like some cities are doing now with pensions.
Posted on 12/11/14 at 12:13 pm to Gulf Coast Tiger
What happens when we can't buy fuel or pay the soldiers?
Posted on 12/11/14 at 12:13 pm to Homesick Tiger
quote:
George Washington said political parties would be the downfall of the nation. I agree. We just couldn't make a definite decision on when that will be.
We do have a one party system. It's called the Washington party. There is a left wing and a right wing. When you get down to the nitty gritty a politician is a politician.
Posted on 12/11/14 at 12:14 pm to goatmilker
quote:
can't buy fuel
I think we're OK through my lifetime plus a few decades
quote:
or pay the soldiers?
Print more money
Posted on 12/11/14 at 12:18 pm to Wtodd
When it all falls down money becomes good toilet paper.
Or fire starter.
Or fire starter.
Posted on 12/11/14 at 12:19 pm to Navytiger74
quote:
Again, Japan, Germany, and UK survived without the luxery of printing the world's reserve currency (though the Pound and Yen are important and the Mark was)
Are you referring to post WWII/Bretton Woods conference? If so, I think that simply makes my point. It took a world war to rectify their debts.
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