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The argument about "trump economy just on same trajectory as Obama, no big deal"
Posted on 1/16/18 at 12:34 pm
Posted on 1/16/18 at 12:34 pm
First off, yes it is true that trump inherited an expanding economy from Obama. So it's true that many of the reasons the economy is growing now are due to factors independent of trump or his policies
But here's where that argument might fall apart: economic theory says the closer the economy gets to full employment and full output, the slower the rate of economic growth. The number of jobs created in 2017 was almost identical to the number created in 2016 despite the UE rate being more than 1% higher in 2016. As ben casselman of the nyt says, that is pretty remarkable from an empirical standpoint.
Likewise, we are about to have three straight quarters of GDP growth above 3%, first time since 2005 that happened.
With the exception of jobs created, key indicators such as the DOW growth (best start to year since 1980s) and GDP growth are going to be higher in 2017 than 2016. It's very good that the economy continues to expand at this pace even though economists believe we are nearing maximum output
So no, trump does not get credit for the economy confusing to be good, but there is an argument he should be credited for expanding the RATE of the growth we are seeing
But here's where that argument might fall apart: economic theory says the closer the economy gets to full employment and full output, the slower the rate of economic growth. The number of jobs created in 2017 was almost identical to the number created in 2016 despite the UE rate being more than 1% higher in 2016. As ben casselman of the nyt says, that is pretty remarkable from an empirical standpoint.
Likewise, we are about to have three straight quarters of GDP growth above 3%, first time since 2005 that happened.
With the exception of jobs created, key indicators such as the DOW growth (best start to year since 1980s) and GDP growth are going to be higher in 2017 than 2016. It's very good that the economy continues to expand at this pace even though economists believe we are nearing maximum output
So no, trump does not get credit for the economy confusing to be good, but there is an argument he should be credited for expanding the RATE of the growth we are seeing
8
Posted on 1/16/18 at 12:39 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
we knew that already.
Posted on 1/16/18 at 12:45 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
First off, yes it is true that trump inherited an expanding economy from Obama. So it's true that many of the reasons the economy is growing now are due to factors independent of trump or his policies
bullshite.
How the hell is 2 years of 1.8% GDP growth considered an "expanding economy"?
The stock market on Jan, 2015 was 17,400, and on Nov 7th, 2016, it was 17,900.
That's +500 points in the last 22 months of Obama's presidency leading up to election night.
The market has gone up +8,000 points since election night, and the economy just had 3.3% GDP growth.
How in the blue frick do you spin Obama having 2 years of stagnant economy and flat markets getting any credit for 2017?
What policies did he implement that changed 2 years of crap to suddenly the economy and market skyrocketing?
This post was edited on 1/16/18 at 12:48 pm
Posted on 1/16/18 at 1:17 pm to BeefDawg
quote:
The market has gone up +8,000 points since election night, and the economy just had 3.3% GDP growth.
How in the blue frick do you spin Obama having 2 years of stagnant economy and flat markets getting any credit for 2017?
What policies did he implement that changed 2 years of crap to suddenly the economy and market skyrocketing?
You'll get nothing but crickets.
Posted on 1/16/18 at 1:30 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
closer the economy gets to full employment and full output, the slower the rate of economic growth
The problem with using this formula is the unemployment number given by the government is badly wrong. Trump called this out during his campaign; he said the unemployment formula is designed to make the President look better and he was right.
So as the unemployment figure charges lower, be aware that there are millions of people not counted in that percentage because they're no longer collecting unemployment. If you're long term unemployed and not on unemployment, you don't exist for purposes of calculating unemployment.
When people who mathematically don't exist come back into the workforce, they skew anything that depends on the unemployment figure being correct.
And it makes sense that the duration of boosted economic growth is longer in duration if we have 5 million hidden workers to feed the growth.
This post was edited on 1/16/18 at 1:37 pm
Posted on 1/16/18 at 1:38 pm to BeefDawg
quote:
How the hell is 2 years of 1.8% GDP growth considered an "expanding economy"?
Expanding means growing. The fact that you consider this controversial is incredible.
quote:
The market has gone up +8,000 points since election night, and the economy just had 3.3% GDP growth.
The economy grew at above 3% for single quarters during Obama's tenure too. And the markets rose at the same clip as well during certain periods. Look at a chart bro.
You can't gauge much when we don't even have a full year of data yet. Obama had some excellent quarters.
This post was edited on 1/16/18 at 1:40 pm
Posted on 1/16/18 at 1:38 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
If the operators of our economy valued obama's results and were optimistic that we would improve going forward with his model, then Hillary would be the president.
Posted on 1/16/18 at 1:47 pm to white beans
quote:
If the operators of our economy valued obama's results and were optimistic that we would improve going forward with his model, then Hillary would be the president.
They did. A Trump victory would crash the market. Remember?
Posted on 1/16/18 at 1:49 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
So it's true that many of the reasons the economy is growing now are due to factors independent of trump or his policies
How dare you say this?! Trump is the ONLY reason the economy is booming! Anyone that says otherwise is a liberal American and trump hating cuck !
Posted on 1/16/18 at 5:44 pm to Cajunese
I am talking about working taxpayers who haven't had raises or opportunities for mobility or advancement
Posted on 1/16/18 at 6:18 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Trend is the same, but velocity has markedly increased.
One of those happens after every recession. The other only happens during periods of exceptional leadership.
One of those happens after every recession. The other only happens during periods of exceptional leadership.
This post was edited on 1/16/18 at 6:19 pm
Posted on 1/16/18 at 6:23 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
The market is using the election to inflate a market that was already over valued. When the profit taking happens it will not be Trumps fault.
Posted on 1/16/18 at 6:29 pm to BeefDawg
quote:
How the hell is 2 years of 1.8% GDP growth considered an "expanding economy"?
By definition GDP Growth is expansion.
Obviously 3% is better than 1.8% but regardless both denote expansion.
Recession would be negative GDP growth
Posted on 1/16/18 at 6:43 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
There is one major difference.
Trumps economy is not currently requiring spending an extra 1.5 Trillion a year more than revenue to maintain its current trajectory.
Trumps economy is not currently requiring spending an extra 1.5 Trillion a year more than revenue to maintain its current trajectory.
Posted on 1/16/18 at 8:09 pm to Loserman
quote:
By definition GDP Growth is expansion.
Obviously 3% is better than 1.8% but regardless both denote expansion.
Recession would be negative GDP growth
Sorry but you have to take inflation into account. And true inflation at that, not the garbage index our government uses.
Do you guys not understand that GDP is essentially the total of dollars spent on goods and services in a calendar year, which accounts for COLA too?
Why is every COL adjustment that every actuarial uses at a minimum of 3%, but our government uses some retarded figure that doesn’t account for food and fuel?
We are in an inflation bubble right now. Bush added $1T of QE and Obama added $5T of QE. This doubled our M2 money supply. But they only allowed the inflation rate to go up 14.8% over the last 8 years.
That’s absurd. That’s how you make a terrible economy look better than it really is. Add enough newly printed dollars to reduce the value of the dollar by 50%, but then only devalue the dollar by 15%.
I don’t know about you, but a gallon of milk went up a lot more than 15% since 2008.
1.8% GDP growth isn’t an “expanding economy”. 3.0% GDP growth is actually just keeping up with hysterical average inflation.
Posted on 1/16/18 at 8:32 pm to cahoots
quote:
Expanding means growing. The fact that you consider this controversial is incredible.
I am a stock broker and CFP going on 20 years, and there's this thing every financial plan I've ever assembled for people that I've had to take into consideration.
It's called inflation. You should read up on it.
I promise you, 1.8% GDP growth is not an "expanding economy" just because 1.8% more dollars were spent on goods and services.
I bought a car in 2014 for $40,000. I just looked at that same make and model car, only 3 years later, and it costs $50,000 now.
Home values went up 6% in 2015 and 6.7% in 2016.
Everything costs way more than just +1.8% each of those years. It's asinine that GDP growth only rose that much.
People made less money, bought less goods and services, but paid more for them. That was Obama's recession recovery from start to finish.
This post was edited on 1/16/18 at 8:32 pm
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