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re: Rush is explaining his off record conversation he had with a pollster right now.
Posted on 9/28/20 at 4:27 pm to Bulldogblitz
Posted on 9/28/20 at 4:27 pm to Bulldogblitz
This is all bullshite. The polls are the way they are to sell airtime.
"Incumbent President leading to lackluster challenger" sells no airtime, not newspapers.
"Scrappy underdog challenger leading controversial incumbent" sells a LOT more.
"Incumbent President leading to lackluster challenger" sells no airtime, not newspapers.
"Scrappy underdog challenger leading controversial incumbent" sells a LOT more.
0
Posted on 9/28/20 at 4:32 pm to JPinLondon
quote:
- Trump won Ohio in '16 by 9.5
- Obama won Ohio in '12 by 1.5
If you believe Biden has swung Ohio by 14.5 points in four years then I have a bridge to sell you!
A 11 vote swing in 4 years was reality, but a 14.5 swing is just completely out of the question?
Posted on 9/29/20 at 5:48 am to relapse98
quote:
A 11 vote swing in 4 years was reality, but a 14.5 swing is just completely out of the question?
YES. Completely so. At least for an incumbent with a 45% to 52% approval rate nationally. You are, in a way, comparing apples to oranges, in your analysis.
- Obama won Ohio in '12 by ~1.5%
- Trump won by 9.0% or 9.5%
That massive swing was due to Trump's appeal in the Rust Belt, more than anything else, including Hillary-hatred. But to think an incumbent with ~50% approval would swing by 14.5% to the negative is probably all but unheard of.
I'd even guess you couldn't find a state that swung against Jimmy Carter between '76 to '80 by over 13% (but I am not guaranteeing that one).
I'm sure Herbert Hoover would have fit that in 1932, but his approval numbers, whether they were polled or not in the Great Depression, were probably VERY low.
This post was edited on 9/29/20 at 5:50 am
Posted on 9/29/20 at 6:11 am to ibldprplgld
quote:
They're gonna get roasted worse than they did after 2016.
Assuming it is a free and fair election.
Posted on 9/29/20 at 6:44 am to RICHIE APRILE
quote:
purposely seeking out Registered Republicans in the suburbs who hate Trump
How do they identify the ones who hate Trump?
Posted on 9/29/20 at 7:04 am to CredulousChowder
Dems are crushing vote by mail. I don't thing Republicans can over take those leads. Democrats might win all 3 chambers.
Posted on 9/29/20 at 7:15 am to RICHIE APRILE
I don't get the strategy, though, because trailing in the polls would seemingly motivate people who support that trailing candidate to make sure to vote.
Posted on 9/29/20 at 7:23 am to Load Toad
Thank you for your concern.
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