re: R's within 50,000 in EV in NV

quote:

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Do you recall where you read this? A lot of your analysis, which seems very well reasoned, seems to hinge on this. In other words, how do we get more certainty around the massive change in turnout share vs. '16?

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Great question. Polls ask people what their planned method of voting will be.

Here is the latest NV NYT/Siena result on that question:

LINK

And here is the previous NV NYT/Siena result on the same question:

LINK

Here is the NV Fox News poll result on the same question:

LINK

And the NV CBS/YouGov poll on the same:

LINK

Now, it's entirely possible that the polls are wrong (imagine that!). Some Republicans could be telling pollsters they're waiting on Election Day, but in reality are voting early in person. But, the same could be true for Dems.