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Predicting Pennsylvania by projecting final vote share by party affiliation
Posted on 11/4/24 at 9:51 pm
Posted on 11/4/24 at 9:51 pm
Actual % of total votes in PA past elections:
2020: Registered Dems 45.7% / Registered GOP 41.9%
2022: Registered Dems 45.4% / Registered GOP 43.9%
Source: LINK
The GOP has since eaten into those margins. But after reading into it (see: LINK ) and doing some rough estimation, I don’t think we can say with confidence that GOP Registered voters will out-vote Dem Registered voters in PA this election. If anyone can provide a solid source saying otherwise I’d love to see it.
My best ROUGH guess is the vote share between registered Dems and Registered GOP in PA will be very close, almost dead even. My projection is that it will end up being something like 43.4% registered Dems and 43.3% registered GOP.
Applying my projected vote share by party registration to how Harris and Trump have been recently polling respectively with Dems, GOP, and Independents, the end result would end up looking something like 49.5% Harris / 48% Trump.
I hope I’m wrong.
2020: Registered Dems 45.7% / Registered GOP 41.9%
2022: Registered Dems 45.4% / Registered GOP 43.9%
Source: LINK
The GOP has since eaten into those margins. But after reading into it (see: LINK ) and doing some rough estimation, I don’t think we can say with confidence that GOP Registered voters will out-vote Dem Registered voters in PA this election. If anyone can provide a solid source saying otherwise I’d love to see it.
My best ROUGH guess is the vote share between registered Dems and Registered GOP in PA will be very close, almost dead even. My projection is that it will end up being something like 43.4% registered Dems and 43.3% registered GOP.
Applying my projected vote share by party registration to how Harris and Trump have been recently polling respectively with Dems, GOP, and Independents, the end result would end up looking something like 49.5% Harris / 48% Trump.
I hope I’m wrong.
6
Posted on 11/4/24 at 9:52 pm to Jon Ham
What in the autism is this
Posted on 11/4/24 at 9:55 pm to Jon Ham
Using a midterm is pointless. Presidential elections are the only comps you can use.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 9:56 pm to Jon Ham
Elon seems confident in PA and he has all the stats and data nerds in the world at his disposal.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 9:56 pm to Jon Ham
Clown post
Posted on 11/4/24 at 9:58 pm to Jon Ham
From what I understand dems we’re up 1 million in early votes in 2020. They ended up winning by just 80,000 votes meaning Reps outvoted dems by 900,000 votes on Election Day. Dems are only up 400,000 this time early votes. Supposedly many of the early republican votes have been new registration and low propensity meaning they feel there is still a lot to come tomorrow.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 9:59 pm to Jon Ham
I could explain this but you are not comparing apples to apples. There are so many different factors in these two scenarios you should not be comparing them.
More R's are registered than D's and plenty of D's will be voting Trump and one example is the Union rank and file. The Amish will vote this election. Minorities and other groups are breaking Trump over Kamala. Enthusiasm is on Trump's side.
I don't want to give a dissertation but If I were betting my savings on it I would rather be on the R side than the D side.
More R's are registered than D's and plenty of D's will be voting Trump and one example is the Union rank and file. The Amish will vote this election. Minorities and other groups are breaking Trump over Kamala. Enthusiasm is on Trump's side.
I don't want to give a dissertation but If I were betting my savings on it I would rather be on the R side than the D side.
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