re: Official US/Israel vs Iran war thread

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NEW: @BenjaminHallFNC says POTUS might be EYEING Iran’s OIL ISLAND

“90% of Iran's oil goes through this ISLAND— It's HALF the size of Manhattan.”

“Back in 1988 President Trump was asked about Iran, he said ‘I would SEIZE the island that controls all of their oil”

“If Trump were to take that and it would require special forces troops, it's not heavily armed, first, military are gone, and then he could control ALL THE OIL”

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What the frick do you mean the "same loud voices from January are silent"?

99% of Iran is cut off from the internet, yet every time I talk to someone on the inside, they BEG America and Israel to go all the way and not abandon them.

This war, if taken to its needed conclusion, is like excising a cancer. It literally can't be done from the inside, and suffering is unavoidable. Nobody knows this better than the people who live there. And yet, the war is 1% as deadly as what the regime managed to inflict on the 08/01 and 09/01 alone. That's why you don't see any refugee waves or anti-americanism among Iranians.

This war isn't even nearly as unpopular inside Iran as you people portray it. They just don't have the internet connection to speak up against your hysteria mongering. Hell, it's not even close to as scary let alone catastrophic as living through a regime massacre.

What EXACTLY do you smugly want to say here? That it would have been better to have no intervention at all despite people inside Iran begging for it and cheering for it when it happened? To make Iranians feel entirely abandoned in the name of "no foreign wars ever"? People literally got killed in January, with their final posts online calling for outside help. They are not losers.

The people inside Iran are warriors and heroes who knew the risks and welcomed some much needed intervention, they are not your trophy victims to condescend over.

You're such a slimy man, I swear.

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Everyone was up in arms when Iranians were being massacred in January, me included

Well, those same Iranian people massacred by the regime are being bombed right now, toxic fumes and oil raining on them and burning their skin.

Why are the same loud voices from January silent?

If you really cared about the Iranian people, you’d be making your voice heard today

Here’s where we are:

Iran’s economy in shambles, over a thousand people killed and over 10k injured, and the regime is still in power with a more hardline leader.

Iran is slowly turning into a failed state, and I highly doubt the remnants of the regime care. They likely thrive more like this.

This entire war is because of the global energy race between the U.S. and China, and the obsession for regime change by Israel

The biggest losers?

The people of Iran

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The Pentagon warned the people of Iran:

"Stay in your homes
Do not go to crowded centers and streets; the IRGC has started placing missiles and drones (for launching) from residential and civilian areas so that if America responds, civilian lives will be lost and it will serve as propaganda fodder for the regime"

Comrades, for now, stay in your homes

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Despite everything that's been said and done, there's a potential future world where the US and Russia are allies. I won't attempt to quantify that, but the concept doesn't seem bizarre to me.

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It doesn't get more textbook than this:

Every step of our March 3rd "Conflict Playbook" has been outlined on this oil price chart.

It began with Steps #1 and #2 when Trump sent an "armada" to Iran and ramped up threats.

On February 27th, we saw the "Friday night strikes" from Step #3 of our playbook.

This led to Step #4 as risk premiums were rapidly priced-in.

On March 3rd, President Trump began saying the war could last "forever," as expected in Step #5.

Then, on Friday and last night, markets began pricing in Step #6, a prolonged conflict sending oil prices to $120/barrel.

Finally, today at 3:20 PM ET, President Trump hinted at "conditional de-escalation" from Step #7 of our Conflict Playbook.

We are now nearing Step #8. Keep following along.

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Step #8: The Market And Political Feedback Loop

One of the most overlooked elements of this strategy is the degree to which financial markets themselves become part of the negotiation environment. President Trump has consistently demonstrated awareness of equity market performance, energy prices, and inflation expectations as components of broader political optics.
A prolonged conflict that drives oil prices sharply higher would directly conflict with three core policy priorities that have been repeatedly emphasized: positioning himself as a peace-focused leader, reducing inflationary pressures, and lowering gasoline prices. Elevated energy costs feed directly into consumer sentiment and inflation data, which in turn influence electoral dynamics during a midterm cycle.
According to JP Morgan estimates, a closure of the Strait of Hormuz could send oil prices to $120-$130/barrel. This would imply a spike in US CPI inflation to ~5%. The last time we saw US inflation at 5% was in March 2023, when the Fed was aggressively hiking rates.

In the current environment, several indicators deserve close monitoring. Sustained Brent crude above $90 per barrel would intensify inflation concerns. Equity markets falling -5% or more would shift investor sentiment. And, gas prices rising over +10% would crush consumer sentiment.
When these thresholds are approached, the probability of negotiation headlines increases substantially.
IMPORTANT: This is exactly when the smart money begins buying; when retail sentiment has collapsed.


Step #9: The Deal And Narrative Framing

In the case of the Iran war, Step #9 is conditional. If the Iranian government collapses, the US and Israel will say that the mission was a success and military objectives have been reached. This would immediately end the tariff playbook before Step #9 commences. If not, proceed below:
Every major confrontation within this framework ultimately concludes with a negotiated outcome that is framed as a strategic victory. The structure of the agreement varies by context, but the narrative remains consistent: maximum pressure produced concessions.
In prior trade wars, agreements were presented as proof that escalation yielded economic advantage (China, EU, India, Vietnam, Japan trade deals). In corporate confrontations, public pressure preceded negotiated equity stakes or structural adjustments (Intel, Rare Earths deals). In geopolitical disputes, ceasefires or framework agreements were framed as evidence that strength compelled compromise (Various Wars/Conflicts Trump Ended in 2025).

If the Iran conflict follows the established pattern, resolution will likely occur only after sufficient leverage has been demonstrated.
That may involve a ceasefire tied to nuclear concessions, a regional security arrangement with enforcement mechanisms, or a sanctions adjustment package contingent on compliance benchmarks.
The specific architecture matters less than the timing and framing.
Step #10: The Violent Repricing And Political Victory Lap

The final stage of President Trump’s conflict playbook does not end with the announcement of a deal. It ends with the market reaction to that deal and the narrative that follows.
Historically, once a resolution framework is introduced, the repricing across financial markets is not gradual, it is abrupt, largely due to positioning. By the time negotiations become credible, investors are typically defensively allocated. Energy exposure is elevated, equity risk has been reduced, and volatility is elevated due to the implicit uncertainty.
When uncertainty suddenly collapses, those positions unwind quickly, as seen in April 2025, August 2025, October 2025, and January 2026, as seen below:

In prior trade war episodes, equity markets rallied sharply once tariff suspensions or framework agreements were announced, even if the underlying structural issues remained unresolved. During geopolitical flare-ups, oil fell sharply once it became clear that shipping lanes would reopen and escalation would not broaden regionally.
The repricing is often violent because it is driven less by improving fundamentals and more by collapsing risk premia. Markets move not because conditions are perfect, but because worst-case probabilities fall dramatically.
Again, pricing-in the "worst case scenario," even briefly, is an integral part of President Trump's negotiation strategy.
We remain adamant that if US/Israeli military action does not end in a collapse in the Iranian government in the coming days or weeks, a deal will return to the table.
President Trump does NOT want a forever war; it accomplishes NONE of his economic objectives.

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TRUMP CALLS PUTIN DIRECT! - President Trump just held a full hour phone call with Vladimir Putin to hammer out ways to end the wars raging in Iran and Ukraine showing bold decisive leadership on the world stage.

Russia confirmed the discussion focused on bringing these conflicts to a swift close as Trump pushes for peace through strength instead of endless fighting and excuses.

This direct engagement terrifies the left because it proves Trump can pick up the phone and get real results with tough adversaries while Biden's team only knew weakness and failure.

Trump's approach prioritizes American interests by stopping wasteful wars draining our resources and risking escalation without clear wins.

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