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Started By
Message
re: Mortality rate as of yesterday is 1.2%
Posted on 3/22/20 at 8:31 am to the808bass
Posted on 3/22/20 at 8:31 am to the808bass
quote:
We will be adding around 300 a day to it within 10 days.
Okay. And? We're a country of 330 million people. Over 100 people are killed in car crashes every day. I'm sorry but these numbers from the Wuhan Flu do not concern me in the least.
This post was edited on 3/22/20 at 8:32 am
1
Posted on 3/22/20 at 8:32 am to Man With A Plan
H1n1. 60 million infected. 17 thousand dead
Posted on 3/22/20 at 8:34 am to StringedInstruments
quote:
I’m not downplaying a pandemic at all.
quote:
the hoopla of covid-19
You're a moron.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 8:35 am to GeauxFightingTigers1
Edited
This post was edited on 3/22/20 at 9:03 am
Posted on 3/22/20 at 8:36 am to GeauxFightingTigers1
Posting some obscure Chinese paper as your evidence? Seriously?
Posted on 3/22/20 at 8:36 am to Summer of George
To me this bug is more brutal to a selected group of people i.e. old/already sick than it is the flu. For everyone else its a nothing burger... most will not eve know they have it.
Either way the shutdown serves very little purpose as the bug will be back down the line, just the flu.
Either way the shutdown serves very little purpose as the bug will be back down the line, just the flu.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 8:36 am to RollTide1987
quote:
Okay. And? We're a country of 330 million people. Over 100 people are killed in car crashes every day. I'm sorry but these numbers from the Wuhan Flu do not concern me in the least.
You’re correct in that we could level off quickly and this could be a severe and overblown reaction.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 8:37 am to StringedInstruments
quote:
The fact is that as testing becomes more widely available and expedient in its results, we will see the mortality rate continue to fall. As anc has pointed out, we will see the mortality rate fall to below 1% in a few short weeks.
Hopefully so. Decrease in mortality rates are mostly daily snapshots along the timeline of a very fluid and dynamic process. Increase in testing is mostly responsible for the shrinking mortality rate isn't it?
Something I saw as encouraging yesterday was downward trends in new cases yesterday for both Louisiana and the USA-unless I misread the graphs.
What's hazy to me is just how contagious is Covid19? Supposedly it's a novel virus currently running its way through a population without previous exposure or immunity to it. Aren't all of measures being taken to flatten out or turn downward the trend line of new cases?
A sub 1.5 % fatality rate will be less comforting if 50% or better of the country ends up infected. Fear of those kinds of numbers seems to be driving the response for federal and local authorities.
Seriously, what, if anything, do they know that we don't to justify these extraordinary measures?
This post was edited on 3/22/20 at 9:02 am
Posted on 3/22/20 at 8:38 am to the808bass
Most likely he has a pre-existing condition and 95%+ chance he isn't coming back. Trying to blame it on me is not improving your position.
Not sure what your post is even suppose to mean.
Yes, he is either a fat frick or he has multiple other pre-existing conditions.... that's what the data shows. Healthy people have died from the flu, in this case... 99.1% of one or more pre-existing conditions that die have a pre-existing condition.
Not sure what your post is even suppose to mean.
Yes, he is either a fat frick or he has multiple other pre-existing conditions.... that's what the data shows. Healthy people have died from the flu, in this case... 99.1% of one or more pre-existing conditions that die have a pre-existing condition.
This post was edited on 3/22/20 at 8:40 am
Posted on 3/22/20 at 8:39 am to the808bass
Which is what I'm worried about.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 8:40 am to GeauxFightingTigers1
quote:
Yes, he is either a fat frick or he has multiple other pre-existing conditions.
Neither of those is correct.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 8:40 am to the808bass
Than he is part of the .09%.
So?
So?
Posted on 3/22/20 at 8:40 am to RollTide1987
quote:
Which is what I'm worried about.
And that’s appropriate and fine. Other people are worried about it not leveling off and that’s appropriate and fine at this point. We don’t have enough data to know right now.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 8:41 am to GeauxFightingTigers1
I think your model of “who gets really sick” is based on what you hope it to be. That’s fine for you. It’s not reality.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 8:42 am to the808bass
There is plenty of data.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 8:43 am to AUstar
quote:
Not a good metric. Most all of those cases are still active and we don't yet know how they will fare.
Number of cases will outpace death
I keep reading about exponential growth but people seem to ignore it within the infected. Number of cases has a much bigger base and will grow faster than deaths
The numbers are telling us what we have thought for Over a month. This thing isn’t that deadly and is not even noticeable for perhaps half of those infected.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 8:44 am to the808bass
No, that is what the data shows.
You're making shite up.
99.1% of the people have one or more pre-existing condition. 70% have at least one. The death rates of 70+ year olds (and especially 80+ year olds) is not good as they have other issues and diminished lung capacity. Grandpa has worse odds than grandma by almost double.
You're making shite up.
99.1% of the people have one or more pre-existing condition. 70% have at least one. The death rates of 70+ year olds (and especially 80+ year olds) is not good as they have other issues and diminished lung capacity. Grandpa has worse odds than grandma by almost double.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 8:46 am to OceanMan
quote:
Number of cases will outpace death
I keep reading about exponential growth but people seem to ignore it within the infected. Number of cases has a much bigger base and will grow faster than deaths
The numbers are telling us what we have thought for Over a month. This thing isn’t that deadly and is not even noticeable for perhaps half of those infected.
Death isn't the only negative outcome from catching coronavirus.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 8:46 am to GeauxFightingTigers1
(no message)
This post was edited on 3/22/20 at 5:57 pm
Posted on 3/22/20 at 8:49 am to ShortyRob
The danger here is now waiting too long to turn the economy back on. The US death rate is now moving downward, and nobody can pinpoint if the virus is behaving seasonally, or if the social distancing has knocked it down. It's just a shotgun approach. Globally, it's still rising, but it's driven by a few country's data points. Nearly all deaths are coming from a combination of elderly and underlying conditions, and the total US deaths as stated above, are statistically insignificant.
The impacts to the economy, including higher crime from poverty, which may kill more, may not be statistically insignificant. With testing speed rapidly increasing, and teams working on a vaccine, we should be laying out plans now for how to start back up. That is part of preparation, and it can be done from the comforts of quarantine. A measured, phased approached to get people back to work, should be another topic of discussion now.
The impacts to the economy, including higher crime from poverty, which may kill more, may not be statistically insignificant. With testing speed rapidly increasing, and teams working on a vaccine, we should be laying out plans now for how to start back up. That is part of preparation, and it can be done from the comforts of quarantine. A measured, phased approached to get people back to work, should be another topic of discussion now.
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